China In Eurasia

In a state visit rich in symbolism, Russian President Vladimir Putin will go to Harbin, a northeastern Chinese city with deep cultural and historic links to Russia, as part of a bid to trumpet burgeoning economic and political ties between the two countries.

Putin will use his May 17 Harbin visit -- the second of a two-day trip to China meant to cement his relationship with Chinese leader Xi Jinping -- to attend a "gala" marking 75 years of diplomatic ties between the countries and to attend trade and cooperation forums in the city.

The capital of China's northeastern Heilongjiang Province that borders Russia's Far East, Putin will also visit the Harbin Institute of Technology, a site of joint research between China and Russia and an institution with deep links to China's military and defense industry.

While Putin was greeted with pomp and pageantry in Beijing alongside Xi, the Russian leader will look to use the Harbin visit to show that Russian-Chinese ties are deeper than the two leaders shared goal of pushing back against the United States and the West on the world stage.

During Putin's May 16 stop in Beijing, he praised China as Russia's top trade partner -- with turnover ballooning to $240 billion in 2023 -- and said the countries had learned the lessons of "the history of our relationship at different stages of its development" in an interview with China's state-run Xinhua News Agency before his visit.

Speaking alongside Putin, Xi said China was prepared "to consolidate the friendship between the two peoples for generations to come."

A Symbolic Stop

Once nicknamed "Little Moscow," Harbin has strong links to tsarist Russia and was once home to tens of thousands of ethnic Russians, many of whom were settlers during railway construction or fled to the city during the 1917-22 Russian Civil War.

The area was also the site of border tensions between China and the Soviet Union when conflict erupted in 1969, but has become increasingly connected to Russia's Far East in recent years as Russian-Chinese trade has grown.

While much of its Orthodox-style architecture has been replaced, Harbin's famous and towering St. Sophia Cathedral still sits in the heart of the city. Tourists across China and Russia flock to Harbin for its annual Ice and Snow Festival.

Resisting Western Pressure

The Harbin Institute of Technology that Putin is slated to visit has been home to exchange and joint research between China and Russia for more than a century and is also one of China's most important military research universities. The institution is one of the "Seven Sons of National Defense" universities -- a government label that means it reports to the Industry and Information Technology Ministry, which also controls China's defense industry.

According to a study by Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, the institution and its six other peer universities provide about three-fourths of the technical graduates recruited by China's defense companies.

The university was also included in sanctions by the U.S. government in 2020 for its alleged role in procuring items for China's military.

SEE ALSO:

Putin Heads To China With Military Ties Front And Center

With revamping its defense industry and military cooperation with China a focus of the trip, Putin brought a large delegation of high-ranking Russian officials with him -- including newly appointed Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.

Beyond Xi And Putin

Ever since the Russian and Chinese leaders declared a "no-limits" bilateral strategic partnership in February 2022, the strength of their relationship has been put to the test.

While Putin proclaimed that "Russia-China relations have reached an all-time high, and even in the face of severe international situations, relations between the two countries continue to strengthen" before departing from Moscow, China has had to perform an awkward diplomatic straddle.

Xi has faced growing diplomatic and economic pressure from the West to curtail any support that aids Russia's war in Ukraine, with Washington accusing Beijing of aiding the Kremlin's war machine through the trade of dual-use equipment like satellite intelligence, fighter jet parts, and microchips.

SEE ALSO:

Putin, Xi Talk War In Ukraine As They Boast Stronger China-Russia Ties

Senior U.S. officials have also warned of sanctions against banks in China and "significant consequences" on Chinese companies that assist Russia's war effort.

In visiting Harbin, Putin is looking to offset some of this pressure by showing that the China-Russia relationship is more than just geopolitics.

Harbin and the region are a bustling hub for trade between China and Russia and the exodus of Western brands from Russia following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine created a void that was swiftly filled by Chinese manufacturers, which now dominate Russian markets from smartphones to household appliances.

The top six foreign car brands in Russia are all Chinese, with around 60 percent of newly sold cars in Russia this year due to be imported from China, almost double the share in 2022, according to Russian and Chinese customs data. China's Xiaomi and Tecno have eclipsed Apple and Samsung in Russia's smartphone market and the Chinese yuan has become the most traded currency on the Moscow stock exchange.

In Harbin, Putin will look to underscore those burgeoning links by visiting a China-Russia trade expo and an economic forum meant to further boost economic ties between the two countries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China for a two-day state visit where he’s set to press Chinese leader Xi Jinping for more support to sustain his country’s sanctions-hit economy and war machine in Ukraine.

The May 16-17 visit is Putin’s first foreign trip since he was sworn in for a fifth presidential term one week ago and comes as Beijing continues to extend a key economic lifeline to Moscow to help soften the blow of Western economic sanctions that have limited Russian access to global supply chains and international markets. The United States has increased its warnings in recent months about China’s crucial role in helping Russia on the battlefield by aiding its defense industry through the supply of nonlethal but militarily useful dual-use products.

Analysts say a main objective for Putin’s trip will be to find ways to circumvent U.S. restrictions that have driven down Chinese exports to Russia in March and April following a boom in consumer products and dual-use goods since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

SEE ALSO:

Chinese Drones Flow To Training Centers Linked To Russian War In Ukraine

Both U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Beijing during visits to China in April that Chinese companies -- and financial institutions -- could face secondary sanctions for supplying Moscow’s defense industry.

“There are clear signals that the economic component of the war will be a crucial piece of [the visit],” Nathaniel Sher, a senior research analyst at Carnegie China, told RFE/RL. “Every month, China is exporting more than $300 million worth of dual-use products to Russia and isn’t hiding it. There [are] few reasons to see why they’d stop now.”

An analysis of Chinese customs data by Sher shows that Chinese exports to Russia have risen by more than 60 percent since the invasion of Ukraine and that in 2023 some 90 percent of “high-priority” dual-use goods used in Russian weapons production was imported from China. China’s total trade volume with Russia also rose by 26 percent in 2023 to a record $240 billion.

Underscoring the importance of Russia’s defense sector to Putin’s China trip is a Kremlin reshuffle that saw him appoint technocrat economist Andrei Belousov as defense minister on May 12. Defense spending in Russia has been ratcheted up and experts say Belousov’s appointment is part of an effort to raise military production for the war in Ukraine in preparation for a yearslong campaign.

Belousov, who has held several top economic roles over the last decade, also has extensive experience dealing with China. Both Xi and Putin will meet with policy teams specializing in trade, energy, and security cooperation during the visit and Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, says that since Xi’s state visit to Moscow in 2023 both Beijing and Moscow have “invested serious effort…to get senior officials on both sides to know each other well.”

“As Beijing and Moscow expand their defense industrial cooperation, Putin has elevated high-caliber professionals with China experience,” Gabuev wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Meeting An 'Old Friend'

Since the announcement of a Russia-China “no limits” partnership in February 2022, which was followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine just days later, the countries have moved closer together despite sanctions and political pressure from the West.

In previewing the visit, the Kremlin said Putin and Xi would “discuss the whole range of issues in detail in their all-encompassing partnership and strategic relationship.”

SEE ALSO:

China, Russia Showcase Growing Ties With Joint Military Exercises

The two leaders will also sign a joint statement and take part in an event celebrating the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the Soviet Union, the Kremlin added.

Putin will also meet Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang to discuss trade and humanitarian issues, the Kremlin said, and then visit the northeastern Chinese city of Harbin to open two bilateral trade events.

The state visit will mark the 43rd time that Putin and Xi have met. In an interview with China’s state-run Xinhua news agency on May 15, the Russian leader praised Xi as an “old friend” and said China-Russia ties have reached new heights as both countries “strengthen foreign policy coordination in the interests of building a just multipolar world order.”

Alicja Bachulska, a China policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says the timing of the visit is key, as it follows a high-profile European tour by Xi to France, Serbia, and Hungary.

SEE ALSO:

Xi Heads To Europe Looking For A Larger Chinese Role In Ukraine

“The optics suggest that the two leaders will talk about China’s key takeaways from Xi’s meetings in Europe, many of which concerned the situation in Ukraine,” she said.

Both countries serve as important geopolitical counterweights for each other in their rivalries with the United States. Moscow has stepped up military drills in the East China Sea with Beijing and U.S. intelligence officials warning in May that Russia and China are working closely together on military issues, including any potential invasion of Taiwan.

Meanwhile, amid Russia’s isolation from the West, China has displaced the European Union as Russia’s largest trading partner and become the biggest market for Russian oil and gas.

But this has also raised the risk of Russia becoming economically reliant on China, which has left it with less leverage in negotiations over its vital energy sector.

Russia is hoping China will replace Europe as the major market for its gas exports, but the two countries are yet to reach a deal on the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, which would supply China with gas from fields previously serving European markets.

Testing A 'No Limits' Partnership

This risk of overreliance is also a factor in the flow of dual-use products from China to Russia, says Dennis Wilder, a former director for China on the U.S. National Security Council.

“Putin seems happy with what he’s getting from the Chinese defense industry,” Wilder told RFE/RL. “I don't think he feels he needs to get lethal weapons from them because he wants Russia to build these weapons. It's less costly to do it that way.”

Wilder, a research fellow at Georgetown University, says the Kremlin is hoping to sustain the flow of dual-use goods to refurbish its defense industry, which is currently looking to boost the production of weapons and ammunition as the war in Ukraine grinds into its third year.

North Korea has also supplied Russia with millions of artillery shells for the Ukraine war and transferred ballistic missiles and other weapons in exchange for food and raw materials to manufacture weapons. South Korea and the United States have since accused North Korea and Russia of trading arms in violation of UN sanctions and expressed concern that Moscow could supply Pyongyang with more advanced military technology.

While no visit has been confirmed, Putin expressed his willingness to visit North Korea in January after an invitation from leader Kim Jong Un and some experts have speculated that Putin could visit Pyongyang following his trip to China.

“The North Korea element is an important wrinkle in this relationship and I imagine it will also be discussed in Beijing,” Wilder said. “North Korea can help Russia militarily where China can’t, but this new relationship with Putin and Kim is worrisome to the Chinese as it could further destabilize things in the [Korean] Peninsula.”