Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two major issues: Ukraine’s wobbly week and Iceland’s flirting with EU membership.
Briefing #1: Questions Persist Despite Zelenskyy U-Turn
What You Need To Know: The European Union has breathed a collective sigh of relief after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s swift U-turn this week over legislation that would have limited the independence of two key anti-corruption agencies. But questions and speculation remain about what triggered it, what it says about Kyiv’s ruling class and how it will affect the war-torn country’s chances of joining the bloc. On July 22, Zelenskyy signed a bill approved by parliament that placed the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) under the auspices of the Prosecutor General, a position appointed by the president. Within hours Ukrainians, despite Russian air strikes earlier in the day, took to the streets to protest the move, which critics said undermined the independence of the institutions in a country long known for deep-seated corruption.
The response from Brussels was also immediate. Both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, called Zelenskyy, demanding an explanation and expressing “strong concerns.” European enlargement commissioner Marta Kos said in a post on X that “independent bodies like NABU and SAPO are essential for Ukraine’s EU path.” Within two days Zelenskyy had done an about-face, putting forward new legislation that would reverse course and ensure independence for NABU and SAPO.
Deep Background: But the damage was already done. Speaking on condition of anonymity, one diplomat said Zelenskyy had “managed to shoot himself in the foot for no apparent reason,” as it gave ample ammunition to the many in the 27-nation bloc who claim that Kyiv is hopelessly corrupt. Another noted that it seemed that Ukraine had suddenly been transported back to the era of former President Viktor Yanukovych, who constantly battled to control the judiciary. Yanukovych was ousted from power in 2014 during the Maidan protests, sparked by his decision not to sign a political association and free trade deal with the EU, instead choosing closer ties with Moscow. Grumblings over this week's legislative rollercoaster were also directed against Zelenskyy’s head of office, Andriy Yermak, a powerful but deeply polarizing figure in European circles. Sources said questions persist about whether this was the “real face” of Zelenskyy and his entourage, given that many officials have long held fears about what they call his “tendencies to want to centralize power.” Zelenskyy admitted that demonstrations in the country, the first such show of defiance against the government since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, made him change his mind. EU officials saw the change as positive -- signaling a healthy and empowered civil society that also highlighted Zelenskyy’s democratic credentials -- in contrast to the considerable backsliding, for example, that has been seen recently in Georgia.
Drilling Down
- It appears as though pressure from Brussels may have also helped Zelenskyy's decision. Everything was on the table, admits one official, and the bloc made that known.
- That would mean freezing some of the billions of euros in funds that the EU provides to Ukraine on a regular basis. A lot of this cash is conditioned on reform efforts, notably when it comes to the judiciary.
- One of the benchmarks for Ukraine to get visa liberalization to the bloc, back in 2017, was the setting up of NABU. While no one was openly suggesting the suspension of visa liberalization, as is currently being mooted with Tbilisi, the threat of looking into it was enough to rattle Kyiv.
- Then there was the delicate issue of de-coupling Ukraine from Moldova, allowing the latter to proceed alone in the EU accession process. That would be a heavy blow to Ukraine, given the pair have so far moved closer to membership hand in hand.
- The discussion about this started in Brussels in the spring, with Hungary reluctant to give Kyiv the green light to start accession talks.
- The idea was very much alive before the latest developments in Ukraine, and EU officials have indicated to RFE/RL that it may come up again in early September with a view to giving Moldova’s ruling pro-EU government a boost before its crucial parliamentary election later that same month.
- The fact that Hungary appears to be unlikely to change its position on the issue ahead of its own national elections in April next year has made the issue even more pressing. Many EU member states believe that this decoupling would be unfair as it essentially would give in to Budapest’s “blackmail.”
- Yet some diplomats admitted that the latest events had weakened their argument, regardless of the subsequent Ukrainian backtracking.
- Highlighting the diverging paths, the same day Ukraine's parliament approved the controversial law, Greek police arrested the Moldovan oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, arguably the country’s most wanted man.
- A former politician and one of Moldova's richest people, Plahotniuc is allegedly the mastermind behind the theft of $1 billion from Chisinau a decade ago -- a charge he denies. At this moment, Moldova’s and Ukraine’s efforts to fight corruption couldn’t have contrasted more in the eyes of some in Brussels.
- Interestingly, there is a feeling in Brussels that the Ukrainian frustration with the Hungarian veto and the bloc’s inability to deal with it could have driven Zelenskyy to care less about EU “hobby horses” such as corruption.
- Rumors are swirling that several of the bloc’s leaders told him at a recent conference in Rome that he should be ready to accept that Moldova might move ahead of Ukraine.
- That, coupled with less focus on the issue from the new American administration, gave him an opportunity to deal with long-standing nuisances such as pesky anti-corruption officials, diplomatic sources said. He may have overplayed or revealed his hand. Either way, the EU has taken note.
Briefing #2: Is Iceland The Next Country To Join The EU?
What You Need To Know: When predicting which country would be the next to join the European Union, the smart money seems to be on Montenegro given that it has been negotiating for years and has advanced the furthest of all candidates. Others point to Albania, which is currently making great strides toward Brussels as the next member. There are also some who think that Moldova -- a reform-oriented and ambitious country in the bloc’s eastern neighborhood -- stands a decent chance of becoming the EU's 28th member state in the coming year. But the right answer may actually be Iceland.
The Trump administration's overtures to annex the Danish territory of Greenland and the prospect of a trade war between its security provider, the United States, and its biggest trading partner, the European Union, have created unease on the North Atlantic island. The current Icelandic government, which came to power last year, has announced that a referendum on resuming accession talks with Brussels will be held before 2027. Polls suggest a majority would support restarting talks.
Deep Background: The country has been here before. It was badly hit by the 2008 global financial crisis, when three of its major banks collapsed. EU membership -- and especially joining the eurozone -- was seen as a way out of the crisis, and negotiations with the bloc began in 2010. Talks were suspended three years later by a newly elected right-wing government. By then, the eurozone was itself engulfed in the same financial crisis, so joining the club and adopting its ailing common currency was no longer seen as a panacea. In those three years of accession talks, Reykjavik opened most of the 33 accession chapters and closed 11. By comparison, the current EU accession frontrunner, Montenegro, has managed to close a mere seven chapters in more than a decade of talks.
It’s not for nothing that EU officials believe that Iceland could wrap up the entire process in a couple of years if it was to resume its application -- which, according to the European Commission, remains valid. It helps, of course, that the country is part of the European Economic Area (EEA), which means that it -- together with other EEA members Norway and Liechtenstein -- is already applying the EU’s internal market rules. When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited the island last week, she was quick to point out that the issue of future EU membership is “a sovereign decision that the people take here. So, it’s not a topic for me to comment on.” But, she added, “Iceland is familiar and integrated into the single market, we share values, we know each other very well, we are like-minded -- all this is an asset.” Speaking on condition of anonymity, a European diplomat familiar with the topic was even more forthright. “It would be good if a Western European country would join the EU, especially after Brexit,” they said. “It would show that the club truly is attractive.” Integration would prove seamless, given that Iceland is richer than the EU average and -- with a population of 300,000 -- would be the smallest member state if it joined.
Drilling Down
- While Brussels officially is trying to stay out of the Icelandic debate on membership, it is quietly doing everything to edge it closer.
- During her visit, von der Leyen promised a trade review to potentially upgrade the EEA agreement. She also struck a deal to protect critical infrastructure that is essential for Iceland, such as subsea cables, and started negotiations on a new security and defense partnership agreement, which would allow closer cooperation on cyber and hybrid threats.
- The partnership, expected to be ready by year’s end, is especially important for Iceland, which is acutely aware of the need for security cooperation, particularly as both Russia and China are becoming more active in the Arctic region.
- The United States has also rattled the country recently with talk of taking over Greenland, sparking debate there about rejoining the European Union after leaving the European Communities -- a precursor of today’s EU -- back in 1985.
- While Washington hasn’t made similar claims on Iceland, there is a certain nervousness, as the US provides for the country’s defense on behalf of NATO via a bilateral agreement signed in 1951.
- To this day, Iceland is the only NATO member without its own army and there are no imminent plans to create one. In 2006, the United States announced it would continue to provide for the island’s defense but without forces being permanently stationed there. That policy still stands, and the former US air base in Keflavik remains a hub for NATO exercises.
- But it is the transatlantic trade tension that is really making Iceland twitchy. Reykjavik wants Brussels to consult them on the EU-US trade talks, but that is not something that EU officials can promise without full membership.
- And it is trade in general that could spark conflict during eventual membership negotiations, especially on agriculture and fisheries, which are key industries on the island.
- Those two items are excluded from the EEA for good reason. There is a fear that the EU’s common agriculture policy would kill farming on the island by flooding it with cheap food products from other EU member states.
- Fishing is even more delicate. Reykjavik claims proudly that its management of fishing stocks is superior to Brussels. And it would be very reluctant to give up its exclusive rights to fishing within its 200-mile economic zone to Danish, Dutch, Irish, Spanish, or French fleets.
- Then there is commercial whaling, which is still permitted in Icelandic waters despite the EU’s push for a global moratorium.
- The fact remains that most political parties in the Icelandic parliament are against EU membership.
- And while polls show that the population is keen to restart talks with Brussels, they are less sure that they actually want to become members. In Brussels, officials remain hopeful but see obstacles for a small yet fiercely independent nation to voluntarily give up its sovereignty. “It’s a long shot on their side, not ours,” one said.
Looking Ahead
The Helsinki Final Act celebrates 50 years, and the anniversary is marked by a whole day of high-level speeches and panels in the Finnish capital on July 31. The agreement, signed by 35 nations including the Soviet Union and the United States back in 1975, was a high watermark of Cold War détente and paved the way for today’s Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
That's all for this week!
Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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