Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.
I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
The Key Issue
A growing chorus of governments, human rights groups, and NGOs have urged Pakistan to reverse its decision to forcibly deport over 1 million Afghans from the country.
Islamabad has said the estimated 1.7 million undocumented Afghan refugees and migrants living in Pakistan must leave voluntarily or face deportation by November 1.
The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HCRP) became the latest organization to criticize the decision, saying it "amounts to forced repatriation, which is not recognized under international law."
In its October 18 statement, the HCRP said Pakistan's caretaker government lacked the legal mandate to order the mass expulsions.
Around 3.7 million Afghans live in Pakistan, according to the United Nations, including some 700,000 people who arrived after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021.
Why It's Important: Rights groups have said the mass deportations will put Afghans at great risk of retribution in their homeland.
Tens of thousands of Afghans who have applied for foreign visas or refugee relocation in the West remain stuck in Pakistan. Many of them are journalists, activists, and former interpreters who worked with international forces.
A group of former top U.S. officials and resettlement organizations on October 18 urged Pakistan to exempt them from deportation. "To deport them back to an environment where their lives would be in jeopardy runs counter to humanitarian principles and international accords," the open letter said.
Activists also say Pakistan's announcement has fueled growing abuse against Afghans, including harassment, assault, and arbitrary detention.
"Afghanistan is reeling from economic and human rights crises," Fereshta Abbasi, an Afghanistan researcher at Human Rights Watch, told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. "Pakistani authorities should realize that this announcement has prompted the country's police to abuse refugees."
Last week, the United Nations said the "forced repatriation of Afghan nationals has the potential to result in severe human rights violations, including the separation of families and deportation of minors."
What's Next: Despite mounting criticism, Pakistan has been adamant that all "illegal" refugees and migrants must leave the country of some 240 million.
Pakistan's powerful military, which has an oversized role in the country's domestic and foreign affairs, said on October 17 that it backed the government's decision to "deport all illegal foreigners" and will "support and facilitate smooth, respectable, and safe repatriation/deportation of all illegal foreigners."
It is unclear if Islamabad will be able to deport all undocumented Afghans by the November 1 deadline, given the complex logistics involved.
Over the years, Islamabad has expelled many Afghans, who are often blamed for insecurity and unemployment, and periodically threatens those who remain with mass expulsion.
What To Keep An Eye On
The Taliban said it wants to formally join China's globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The Taliban Commerce Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi told Reuters on October 19 that the group had "requested China to allow us to be a part" of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a centerpiece of the BRI.
"China, which invests all over the world, should also invest in Afghanistan...we have everything they need, such as lithium, copper, and iron," Azizi told Reuters.
Azizi spoke a day after the end of the annual Belt and Road Forum, which Taliban representatives attended.
In May, Islamabad and Beijing announced that CPEC would be extended to Afghanistan.
Why It's Important: China has been cautious about expanding its relations with the Taliban government, which is under international sanctions and remains internationally unrecognized.
It is unclear if the Taliban's participation in the Belt and Road Forum, a key annual event in China, is a sign that Beijing is ramping up its engagement with Afghanistan.
Experts have said Beijing's primary concern in Afghanistan is the threat posed by members of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) -- an Uyghur extremist group that Beijing blames for unrest in its western province of Xinjiang.
The Taliban has been accused of sheltering Uyghur militants and done little to alleviate China's security concerns.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Abubakar Siddique
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