TBILISI -- Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili recently posted a photo of New Year's decorations at the presidential residence in Tbilisi. "They put a train in front of the Orbeliani Palace," she wrote on Facebook. "Let's see who will be leaving."
On December 14, an electoral college dominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party is expected to choose Mikheil Kavelashvili, a 53-year-old former soccer player and right-wing populist, as Georgia's next president. The inauguration is set to take place on December 29.
But with Georgia rocked by ongoing anti-government protests, the 72-year-old Zurabishvili, whose term ends this year, has said she isn't going anywhere.
"There will be no inauguration and my mandate continues," the incumbent said on November 30.
The Diplomat Vs. The Jock
The backgrounds and political outlooks of the two politicians couldn't be more different.
Zurabishvili was born in France to a family of Georgian exiles who fled the Red Army invasion in 1921. She served for decades as a French diplomat before becoming the Georgian foreign minister in 2004.
As her political star rose, she appealed more to urban and progressive segments of Georgian society, a consistent advocate of the country's integration with the European Union.
Not for the first time, she has sided with protesters who for over two weeks have taken to the streets across the country to protest the government putting Georgia's EU accession on hold. The authorities have responded with a violent crackdown, targeting protesters, opposition activists, and journalists.
While initially endorsed by Georgian Dream for her successful presidential run in 2018, Zurabishvili has been a thorn in the ruling party's side. Although officially a nonpartisan president limited to a ceremonial role, Zurabishvili has criticized Georgian Dream for its increasingly authoritarian stance.
Whereas Zurabishvili has frequently portrayed herself as a champion of democracy, Kavelashvili has portrayed himself as a champion of the people. Presenting himself as a Georgian everyman, Kavelashvili is a celebrated soccer star who had a successful career abroad playing in Switzerland, England, and Russia.
After entering parliament in 2016, Kavelashvili went on to found the People's Power party, a more radical, anti-Western offshoot of Georgian Dream. Appealing to the country's conservative rural heartlands, he frequently contrasts "traditional Georgian values" with what he sees as the degeneracy of Western liberalism and has taken a hard line on immigration and national sovereignty.
Kavelashvili has the backing of Georgian Dream and the party's uber-powerful founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. "He is the best embodiment of a Georgian man. A wonderful husband and father of four children," Ivanishvili said when he presented the presidential candidate on November 27.
Disputed Elections
At the heart of the standoff is the dispute over the country's recent parliamentary elections. In an October 26 vote, Georgian Dream declared a resounding victory, winning 54 percent, while the four collaborating opposition forces received 38 percent.
International observers and the opposition cried foul, saying the result was flawed, with widespread irregularities and ballot fraud. Zurabishvili has said the elections were "stolen" with the help of Russia and sees the parliament -- and thus the electoral college -- as illegitimate.
Zurabishvili is the last Georgian president to be voted directly by the people. In 2017, Georgia adopted a new system of indirect presidential elections as part of constitutional changes ostensibly aimed at strengthening parliamentary democracy, reducing political polarization, and aligning with European norms where presidents are usually restricted to ceremonial roles.
Critics of the reform, however, say it's a power grab by Georgian Dream, designed to weaken political competition and erode potential checks on parliamentary and governmental authority.
Mounting Tensions
Since taking office in 2012, Georgian Dream has faced growing criticism for its creeping authoritarianism, including accusations of election tampering, judicial interference, and media repression. Over the last year, Georgia has been criticized by the United States and the European Union for its controversial anti-LGBT and "foreign agent" laws, which were both enthusiastically endorsed by Kavelashvili.
As thousands of Georgians continue to protest in the capital, facing brutal police tactics, there have been unsubstantiated rumors floating around that Zurabishvili was going to barricade herself inside the presidential palace. Many protesters fear police are going to start clearing Rustaveli Avenue, where the demonstrations are centered, ahead of the election.
The vote is expected to begin at 9 a.m. local time on December 14, with the results announced that day. While there are members of the opposition in the electoral college, they are refusing to take part. And since there is only one candidate, there is no possibility of a second round.
This isn't the first time Georgia has faced such a situation. After being elected as the country's first president in May 1991, Zviad Gamsakhurdia was ousted in a coup. In exile, he refused to cede power or acknowledge the new government led by Eduard Shevardnadze, the Glasnost-era Soviet foreign minister.
In 1993, Gamsakhurdia returned to Georgia, leading an unsuccessful armed resistance but died later that year under mysterious circumstances.
The result of the December 14 presidential vote will almost certainly not be recognized by Georgia's opposition or civil society activists. While Kavelashvili and the ruling party remain popular among some Georgians -- especially those untouched by the demonstrations -- Zurabishvili has the support of the protesters, whose violent treatment by riot police has shocked many in Georgia.
"I am protected by the people who are out on the streets," she told the BBC on December 1. "I think that the ruling party is very isolated today and it will become even more isolated."
