The United States is deploying jet fighters, air defenses, and an air carrier with thousands of troops to the Middle East, in a move that has heightened tensions with Iran and increased the likelihood of military action, experts say.
US President Donald Trump threatened military strikes against Iran after the authorities killed thousands of people in a brutal crackdown on anti-government protests. Trump recently backed away, although he has not ruled out an attack on the Islamic republic.
Experts say the military buildup along with planned US naval exercises in the region increases the pressure on Iran and provides more offensive military options if Washington chooses to attack Iran.
"This can be a message to Iran that we're ready, our capabilities are in place," Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Gutted Mosques, Eerie Calm In Tehran After Unrest
Nadimi added that the chances of US strikes on Iran were "very high," pointing to the "overtly aggressive" military buildup in the Persian Gulf.
The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three accompanying destroyers are headed toward the Middle East carrying over 5,000 troops. US Central Command has said that F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets were deployed to the region.
Meanwhile, the US Air Force said on January 25 that it was set to launch a multiday military exercise across the Middle East "to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower" in the region.
The activity is reminiscent of last year when the United States moved military assets to the region before Israel and then Washington carried out air strikes targeting Iran's nuclear sites.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of Iran's armed forces, has responded by raising alert levels and urging Iranian-backed armed groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen to support Tehran.
Fraught With Risks
US media reports say Trump is weighing up a range of military options against Iran -- from a sustained aerial campaign that could last weeks or months to modest and largely symbolic strikes targeting Iran's security forces. Nonmilitary options, including additional economic sanctions, have also been reportedly discussed.
Experts say any US military action against Iran is fraught with risks and could drag in the entire region. Tehran has vowed to hit US bases in the Persian Gulf as well as Israel, a key US ally.
"The costs are unpredictable -- retaliation against US allies and attacks on Persian Gulf shipping. Regional partners don't want to pay that price," Mehrdad Khansari, a former Iranian diplomat, told Radio Farda.
Regional countries have privately urged Washington to exercise restraint, concerned that a US-Iran conflict could trigger a wider conflict.
Khansari argued that an aerial campaign alone, without a ground incursion, would not lead to regime change, if that was even Washington's end goal.
A ground invasion of Iran, the largest and most populous country in the Middle East, is considered a nonstarter by many military experts.
"It keeps the file open -- like the Sword of Damocles hanging over the regime -- but air strikes alone cannot topple the regime or eliminate its security forces," he said, speculating that government forces would simply hide during strikes and reemerge afterward.
How Might A Strike Unfold?
Nadimi said planned US military exercises in the coming days could provide cover for actual operations.
He said the United States could use electronic warfare and cyberattacks to disrupt Iranian radar and communications networks. Stealth bombers and fighter jets could then penetrate air defenses in radio silence, striking command centers and missile sites.
But Iran would not be defenseless in case of a conflict, experts say.
Iran possesses cruise missiles capable of threatening US warships in the Persian Gulf's confined waters, as well as ballistic missiles that could hit regional bases. Iran has even alluded to this, erecting a large banner in a major square in Tehran over the weekend depicting a US aircraft carrier struck by a deluge of missiles.
Even if Washington resorts to a largely symbolic strike, Iran is likely to respond in kind, Nadimi said.
