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The closure of all border crossings between Iran and Pakistan amid Islamabad’s construction of a 900-kilometer border fence has trapped thousands of fuel carriers mid-journey.
The closure of all border crossings between Iran and Pakistan amid Islamabad’s construction of a 900-kilometer border fence has trapped thousands of fuel carriers mid-journey.

Abdul Haleem Baloch is among thousands of drivers who eke out a dangerous living illegally smuggling fuel from southeastern Iran into southwestern Pakistan.

But the closure of all border crossings between the two countries amid Islamabad’s construction of a 900-kilometer border fence has trapped thousands of fuel carriers mid-journey. It spells the end of a livelihood for tens of thousands of men in Balochistan, Pakistan’s most impoverished province reeling from violence, poverty, and unemployment.

Baloch and thousands of other drivers have been trapped in the remote villages of Nawanu and Abdoi since the beginning of April. He says it was horrifying to witness the deaths of drivers around him such as Fazal Sabzal, 45, who reportedly died of thirst in the desert region, where daytime temperatures currently exceed 40 degrees Celsius.

“He fell critically ill. He couldn’t get any water for 10 hours, and the thirst claimed his life,” Baloch said of Sabzal’s death during the holy month of Ramadan, when Muslim adults refrain from eating and drinking from dawn to dusk. “I am surviving on water contaminated by diesel,” he told Gandhara.

Fazal Sabzal was one of the drivers who reportedly died near a remote border crossing between Pakistan and Iran.
Fazal Sabzal was one of the drivers who reportedly died near a remote border crossing between Pakistan and Iran.

He paints a picture of a landscape pockmarked with desperation, where every dirt track and back road linking the border villages to Balochistan’s cities is blocked by pickup trucks that illegally ferry fuel in barrels from Iran. Some vehicles are overturned or have run out of fuel.

"I’ve been stuck here for more than two weeks and have been forced to sleep under the blazing sun,” Baloch said. “I have no food, clean water, or toilet.”

Islamabad closed its border with Iran across the province of Balochistan in March following days of protests in Iran’s neighboring Sistan-Baluchistan Province over the killing of Baluch fuel carriers by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Thousands remain trapped along the border while Pakistan builds a fence that it says is necessary to protect the country from militants.

Abdul Haleem Baloch is among the tens of thousands of ethnic Baluch men from Balochistan and Sistan-Baluchiistan who have turned to fuel smuggling because of a lack of jobs in the both countries. Both of the Baluch-majority provinces are the poorest in their respective countries despite being home to seaports, trade routes, and vast mineral resources. Both regions have witnessed attacks by ethnonationalist separatists and Islamist militants, and Islamabad and Tehran have often employed heavy-handed tactics to crush dissent.

Balochistan’s residents say the border closure is killing their livelihood. “People do this out of utter desperation,” says a relative of Sabzal who requested anonymity because of fears he would be harassed. "He was poor and was the sole bread winner of his family,” he added. “He wanted to give his children a better future, so he took up this life-threatening job.”

The relative told Gandhara that Sabzal did everything he could to provide for his five daughters and son. "Before he left for the border, he promised his youngest son he would buy him a new bicycle and clothes for Eid-ul Fitar,” he recalled. “His son is now asking when his father will return.”

Death Toll Likely To Rise

Observers warn of a brewing humanitarian crisis along the border. Gulzar Dost, the general secretary of Border Trade Union in Turbat, a Balochistan district bordering Iran, says four drivers have died already, and the number is likely to rise.

"We have never witnessed anything like this,” he said. “The border was sealed without any warning, and the thousands of traders and drivers stuck there have run out of their food supplies and are sleeping rough.”

He says fuel smugglers typically carry a week’s worth of food and water but that they have run out in the desert. "The conditions are extremely dire and worsening as some people have been stuck there for weeks," Gulzar said.

A boy sits next to plastic canisters filled with petrol that he says was brought from Iran, while waiting for customers at a roadside petrol station on the outskirts of Quetta.
A boy sits next to plastic canisters filled with petrol that he says was brought from Iran, while waiting for customers at a roadside petrol station on the outskirts of Quetta.

Journalist Behram Baloch, who is based in the nearby district of Gwadar, says locals fear more deaths will follow.

"There are more than 10,000 drivers stuck at the border crossing points in Kech, Panjgur, and Gwadar,” he said, naming some of Balochistan’s districts that share a border with Iran. “They have nothing to eat and are exposed to high temperatures while receiving little or no help."

Baloch says the government has been slow to respond. “The authorities are now letting people bring food and water to some of those who are trapped,” he said, adding that blocked roads and pathways have made rescue difficult. “But there are still a large number of people at risk of starvation and heat stroke.”

Liaqat Shahwani, a spokesman for Balochistan’s provincial government, did not respond to repeated requests for comment. "We will try to solve the issue. Whatever the outcome be, we will share it with the media," he later told journalists in Quetta, the provincial capital. Shahwani said their administration is discussing possible solutions to the issue with the federal government in Islamabad.

Protesters In Karachi Condemn Killing Of Ethnic Baluchis On Pakistan-Iran Border
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Hussain Jan Baloch, the deputy commissioner for Kech, a senior government bureaucrat, says they are helping the trapped fuel traders. “The authorities have responded adequately [to the crisis] by providing help to hundreds of drivers stuck along the border,” he said in a statement last week after visiting a closed border crossing.

Back on the border, Abdul Haleem Baloch says nothing has changed since the bureaucrat’s April 18 visit. “We have not seen any help here, and nothing has changed,” he said. “When we try to protest, the Frontier Corps beats us,” he added, naming the paramilitary force that guards Pakistan’s border with Iran.

Baluch fuel smugglers are often killed by border guards as they brave accidents and dangers in their sparsely populated region. Last month, the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights criticized the IRGC for allegedly killing 12 Baluch fuel smugglers.

Cross-Border Ties

Lawmaker Sana Baloch, leader of the opposition Balochistan National Party Mengal in the provincial assembly, says Balochistan’s chronic underdevelopment keeps its residents impoverished and marginalized. Compared with other provinces, he points out, Balochistan trails behind in economic development as its 12 million residents face poverty, poor health and infrastructure, and low literacy. He says the region’s underdevelopment has forced its youth to make a living from dangerous cross-border trade.

Pakistanis who deal in the Iranian gasoline trade across the border protest after the Pakistani government banned smuggled Iranian gasoline, in Panjgur, Balochistan Province, in October 2019.
Pakistanis who deal in the Iranian gasoline trade across the border protest after the Pakistani government banned smuggled Iranian gasoline, in Panjgur, Balochistan Province, in October 2019.

"Islamabad is fencing this border without taking into consideration its adverse effects, and it’s becoming a worst-case scenario for unemployed youth,” he said. “There should be a trilateral commission comprising Iran, Pakistan, and Baluch representatives to make policies that won’t have a harmful impact in the region,” he added. “Pakistan and Iran need to come together and rethink their policies on humanitarian grounds."

Baluch activists and representatives maintain that cross-border trade is not only essential economically but culturally, and that closing it off endangers both lives and blood ties.

“Baluch people on both sides have tribal and clan ties. They have engaged in trade for centuries, which is still the dominant economic activity,” Aslam Shambezai, president of the Border Trade Union, told Gandhara. His union held a shutter-down strike against the border closure in Kech on April 27.

A shutter-down strike against the closure of the Iran-Pakistan border was observed in Kech on April 27.
A shutter-down strike against the closure of the Iran-Pakistan border was observed in Kech on April 27.

Traders across Balochistan have threatened to close major highways across the province if authorities fail to open the border by April 29.

In Makran, the coastal region where several districts share a border with Iran, traders, drivers, and fuel carriers are desperate for the border to reopen.

Shah Jan, a fuel carrier, has not been able to find work for a month. He is worried about how he will provide for his family if the border closure extends indefinitely.

“We are being starved in the name of security,” he said.

Mullah Baradar (left), the Taliban's deputy leader and chief negotiator, at an international peace conference in Moscow on March 18
Mullah Baradar (left), the Taliban's deputy leader and chief negotiator, at an international peace conference in Moscow on March 18

The Taliban failed to end its cooperation with Al-Qaeda, the terrorist network behind the deadly September 11, 2001, attacks in the United States that triggered the invasion of Afghanistan later that year.

The Taliban also failed to hold meaningful negotiations with the Afghan government over a peace settlement, refusing to budge from their maximalist positions.

And the Islamist group failed to reduce violence, instead unleashing a yearlong campaign of targeted killings against government workers, activists, and journalists.

Yet despite reneging on all of the key promises it made to the United States, the extremist group was able to secure its core demand from Washington: the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan.

U.S. President Joe Biden on April 14 announced that the remaining 2,500 American troops in Afghanistan will be out by September 11, without setting any conditions. NATO quickly followed to announce that all of the roughly 7,000 troops under its command will also leave the war-torn country by that date.

“The Taliban has achieved its most important goal without having to give up much at all,” says Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Washington-based Wilson Center. “That's how it's been all along in this very flawed U.S.-sponsored peace process.”

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about the withdrawal of the remainder of U.S. troops from Afghanistan from the Treaty Room in the White House in Washington on April 14.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about the withdrawal of the remainder of U.S. troops from Afghanistan from the Treaty Room in the White House in Washington on April 14.

The administration of President Donald Trump signed a controversial bilateral peace deal with the Taliban in February 2020 that excluded the Afghan government. Many observers said Washington made too many concessions to the Taliban without getting much in return in inking the agreement.

The deal set a hard timetable for a full foreign-troop withdrawal in exchange for vague counterterrorism guarantees from the Taliban. The deal did not include an explicit Taliban commitment to break off ties with Al-Qaeda nor a mechanism to verify the militant group’s compliance with that condition.

The Taliban also pledged to negotiate a peace deal with the Afghan government, although the U.S. pullout was not contingent on signing an agreement to end the war.

By withdrawing by mid-September, the United States has unilaterally extended the deadline in that deal. But the Biden administration said it expects the militant group to abide by its commitments.

Peace Process Dead

The prospects of the Afghan government and the Taliban striking a peace deal were slim before Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces.

Intra-Afghan peace talks that began in September made little progress, hampered by deep mistrust, soaring militant violence, and a huge gulf between the sides on key issues.

Afghan security forces conduct an operation against suspected militants in the Sherzad district of Nangarhar Province on March 8.
Afghan security forces conduct an operation against suspected militants in the Sherzad district of Nangarhar Province on March 8.

Although talks were deadlocked, Biden’s announcement of a complete military withdrawal from Afghanistan has likely killed the sputtering peace process, observers say.

“The Trump administration disincentivized any good-faith efforts from the Taliban,” says Muska Dastageer, a lecturer at the American University of Afghanistan. “The Biden administration has taken it a step further.”

The presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan was Washington and Kabul’s main source of leverage in peace talks with the Taliban. But with a complete withdrawal secured, the Taliban has little motivation to make concessions, analysts say.

It was likely not a coincidence that the Taliban backed out of a high-level international peace conference on Afghanistan in Turkey just hours after news of Biden’s decision broke on April 13.

Washington had hoped to use the April 24-May 4 summit to hammer out a peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

“If these conditions remain fixed -- Biden's withdrawal plan and the Taliban's intransigence -- I don't see intra-Afghan peace talks progressing,” says Dastageer. “At least not with the outcome being a positive-sum midpoint agreeable to both sides.”

Other Levers Of Influence

Biden’s withdrawal announcement has deprived Washington of its main bargaining chip. But observers say Washington has other levers of influence, including international aid to the destitute country and official recognition.

“It’s important for the Taliban to recognize that it will never be legitimate and it will never be durable if it rejects the political process and tries to take the country by force," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a visit to Kabul on April 15.

Observers say Washington is betting that the Taliban will be reluctant to seize power and rule as an international pariah, as it did from 1996 until being overthrown by the U.S.-led forces in 2001.

Afghan Army soldiers secure a military base that was previously in use by U.S. soldiers, in the Haska Meyna district of Nangarhar Province on April 14.
Afghan Army soldiers secure a military base that was previously in use by U.S. soldiers, in the Haska Meyna district of Nangarhar Province on April 14.

Only three countries -- Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates -- recognized the Taliban during its short rule. The repressive regime generated most of its funds from Islamic taxes on citizens and handouts from its few allies, including Al-Qaeda. The group failed to provide basic needs to the people and Kabul lay in tatters after the brutal civil war from 1992-96.

Kugelman says the legitimacy card is important, but questions whether international recognition is still important to the Taliban now that it has secured the foreign troop withdrawal that it long sought.

“Its recent actions -- refusing to reduce violence, refusing to attend peace conferences, staging target killings against civil society, implementing harsh policies in areas it controls -- do not reflect well on it overseas and don't suggest it's interested in building more legitimacy and credibility,” he says.

If the Taliban is committed to negotiating a political settlement that gives it a degree of power, then aid can be an important tool of leverage, says Kugelman.

“But if the Taliban is content to try to seize power by force, which would deny it any chance of getting foreign aid, then aid can't really be a potent leverage tool,” he adds.

Path To War

The NATO withdrawal will weaken the Afghan government at the negotiating table as well as on the battlefield, despite Washington's pledge to continue funding government forces.

Afghanistan’s 300,000-strong army and police force have relied on U.S. air support, intelligence, and logistics on the ground to keep the Taliban at bay.

Observers say the withdrawal will hand the Taliban a battlefield advantage that will encourage it to continue fighting instead of seeking a negotiated end to the war.

The withdrawal will prevent the United States from cooperating directly with Afghan forces on the ground. Washington has said it will retain counterterrorism capabilities after its pullout, but those assets will be repositioned outside of Afghanistan, a move experts say will limit the U.S. ability to act against threats that arise in the country.

The Taliban controls or contests around half of the country, more than at any time since leaving power in 2001, although the government controls the capital, Kabul, the provincial capitals, major population centers, and most district centers. The Taliban rules large swaths of the countryside.

Davood Moradian, the director of the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies, a Kabul-based think tank, says there are two possible scenarios after the withdrawal.

The first would mirror the Soviet Union’s decision to support the communist Afghan regime even after it withdrew its forces from Afghanistan in 1989 following a disastrous, nearly decade-long occupation.

With military and financial assistance from Moscow, Afghan President Najibullah’s government survived for three years and collapsed only after the breakup of the Soviet Union and the end of its support.

The second possible scenario, says Moradian, would be reminiscent of the Taliban’s capture of Kabul in 1996 following a devastating civil war with the mujahedin, the anti-Soviet Islamist factions that seized the capital after Najibullah’s regime collapsed.

The Taliban eventually seized some 90 percent of the country, with the internationally recognized mujahedin government pushed back to a small pocket of territory from where it led a resistance to Taliban rule. The Taliban’s rule ended with the U.S.-led invasion in late 2001.

“I cannot see any scenario where negotiations would lead to a political settlement,” says Moradian. “It appears that the United States and NATO will adopt a version of [the 1989 situation] by sustaining the Afghan government and security forces.”

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