Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.
I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
The Key Issue
A new report by the United Nations says Afghanistan under Taliban rule is turning into a hub for extremist groups.
“Terrorism emanating from Afghanistan will be a driver of insecurity in the region and further afield,” said the report by the UN Security Council committee that monitors the Islamic State (IS) extremist group and the Al-Qaeda terrorist network.
Issued on July 22, the report details how extremist groups with thousands of fighters endanger the security of Afghanistan’s neighbors and pose a growing threat globally.
The report identified Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), the Afghanistan branch of IS, as the “most serious threat” in the Central and South Asia region and said the group was “projecting terror beyond Afghanistan.”
The report said Al-Qaeda was adopting “strategic patience” in Afghanistan. Building ties with the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) extremist group that is waging an insurgency against Islamabad, Al-Qaeda could transform the Pakistani militants into a regional threat, the report warned.
“With Taliban acquiescence, and at times support, TTP has intensified attacks inside Pakistan,” the report said, noting that the Pakistani group is estimated to have around 6,500 fighters.
Why It's Important: Nearly three years after the Taliban’s return to power, there are increasing fears that Afghanistan is once again turning into the headquarters of global terrorism.
The Taliban has battled against IS-K and claims to have severely curtailed its operations in Afghanistan. But the Taliban’s alliances and relations with other extremist groups, including the TTP, have allowed militancy to flourish in the region.
For now, fewer Afghans are dying in terrorist attacks than in recent years, according to a new report by the Institute of Economics and Peace, an Australian think tank. But attacks by Afghanistan-based militant groups abroad are increasing.
External attacks by extremist groups based in Afghanistan could provoke retaliation against the Taliban. Islamabad has already carried out air strikes inside Afghanistan in response to TTP attacks.
The United States says it is working to prevent the reemergence of external terrorism threats from Afghanistan. Vedant Patel, a deputy spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, said on August 1 that Washington is employing international cooperation to ensure that Afghanistan does not become a launching pad for terrorist attacks.
What's Next: The Taliban is expected to keep fighting IS-K because of ideological differences.
But it is unlikely to stop harboring or clamp down on other extremist groups on Afghan soil. That will continue to make Afghanistan a threat to the region and beyond.
What To Keep An Eye On
The Taliban’s unrecognized government on July 30 announced that it was cutting ties with 14 Afghan diplomatic missions abroad and will cease to accept consular documents issued by those missions.
They include Afghan missions in Australia, Canada, Poland, Greece, London, Belgium, Berlin, Bonn, Switzerland, Austria, France, Italy, Sweden, and Norway.
But many of those missions have vowed to defy the Taliban and continue their consular and diplomatic services without any interruption.
“Until the Taliban take steps to gain domestic and international legitimacy, their announcements will have no bearing on our work,” Muhibullah Taib, an Afghan diplomat in Switzerland, told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi.
The Taliban’s decision is likely to impact hundreds of thousands of Afghans based abroad.
“It will not allow Afghans to travel,” Hamza Khan, an Afghan living in France, told Radio Azadi. “We demand that the Taliban rescind this decision.”
Why It's Important: Since seizing power, the Taliban has tried to gain control of Afghan diplomatic missions abroad in a bid to boost its legitimacy.
So far, the Taliban has successfully assumed control of Afghan diplomatic missions in more than a dozen countries in the region.
But it now appears to be seeking to assert authority over missions in Western nations where Afghan diplomats appointed by the previous government have resisted working with the Taliban.
That's all from me for now.
Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
Until next time,
Abubakar Siddique
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