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The Farda Briefing

Fire rages at Tehran's Shahran oil depot after an Israeli attack on June 15.
Fire rages at Tehran's Shahran oil depot after an Israeli attack on June 15.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I’m looking at the debate on whether using force to bring about political change in Iran is realistic or misguided.

What You Need To Know

Is Regime Change In Iran Israel’s End Goal? The question of whether Israel’s true objective in its current conflict with Iran is regime change -- beyond the stated aim of crippling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities -- has become a central debate among analysts and observers. Critics say Israel’s pursuit of regime change in Iran, whether explicit or implicit, is a profound gamble with no guaranteed payoff. However, supporters argue that the clerical establishment is at its weakest, arguing that this presents a rare opportunity to topple the Islamic republic.

Will The US Join The War? That’s the question on everyone’s minds, especially Iranians, after US President Donald Trump this week demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” He later said he “may” or “may not” join the war. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Trump that the US would suffer “irreparable harm” if it were to get involved. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, meanwhile, continues to insist that Tehran is “committed to diplomacy.” Araqchi is reportedly traveling to Geneva to meet his counterparts from Britain, Germany, and France (E3). Meanwhile, large parts of Iran have faced an Internet blackout imposed by authorities amid Israeli air strikes and an information scramble.

Why Israel Needs The US To Hit Fordow: The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) is Iran’s nuclear insurance policy -- buried deep, heavily fortified, and nearly impossible to destroy without US involvement. Israel can’t do it alone, and even with America’s help, it’s a massive gamble with global consequences. Here’s a look at the Fordow facility and why it’s difficult to destroy.

The Big Issue

Iranians protest Mahsa Amini's death after she was detained by the morality police in Tehran in September 2022.
Iranians protest Mahsa Amini's death after she was detained by the morality police in Tehran in September 2022.

Forcing Change In Iran: The Case And The Cost

As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, a pressing question looms: is military intervention in Iran a viable path to regime change?

While Israel has focused its efforts on Tehran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, the scale and rhetoric surrounding recent operations have prompted speculation that a broader goal -- toppling the Islamic republic -- may be in play.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior officials have stopped short of explicitly calling for regime change. Still, their language and the scope of action suggest that dismantling Iran’s current leadership could be a longer-term aspiration.

This possibility has ignited intense debate. While some view the Islamic republic as more vulnerable than ever, others warn that military intervention carries the risk of exacerbating instability, provoking regional escalation, and possibly strengthening Iran’s most hard-line factions.

Why It Matters: Military efforts alone may not be enough to unseat Iran’s entrenched leadership. Despite recurring nationwide protests -- most notably the 2022 uprising sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini -- the clerical establishment has proven both deeply unpopular and brutally resilient.

The protests revealed a deeply disillusioned public, but also demonstrated the Islamic republic’s readiness to use overwhelming force. More than 550 protesters were reportedly killed and over 20,000 arrested during the unrest, according to human rights organizations.

Advocates of external pressure argue that military action could create momentum for internal change. But without parallel efforts -- such as supporting Iranian opposition networks, expanding communication channels, or funding civil resistance -- military strikes may not be enough to tip the balance.

In the absence of a broader strategy, critics fear that foreign intervention could do more harm than good -- empowering hard-liners, delegitimizing homegrown dissent, and alienating ordinary Iranians.

What's Being Said: “There’s a lot of talk about regime change, but very little investment in the kind of infrastructure that would make it feasible,” said Ilan Berman, senior vice president at the American Foreign Policy Council and a board member of RFE/RL.

Speaking to RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Berman stressed that external support for Iranian opposition movements is a “necessary prerequisite” for any sustained uprising.

From inside the Iranian diaspora, opinions vary. Hamed Sheibani-Rad of the pro-monarchy Iran Novin Party framed the situation starkly: “Between Iran and the Islamic republic, only one will remain.” He views Israeli pressure as a rare and fleeting opportunity for change.

But others caution against conflating regime opposition with support for foreign military intervention. US-based defense analyst Hossein Aryan argued that strikes on Iran risk harming the very people who oppose the Islamic republic.

“Criticism of the Islamic republic is a domestic issue. The people of Iran don’t need a guardian abroad -- especially not someone like Netanyahu,” he told Radio Farda.

In the end, while Iran’s government appears increasingly fragile -- marked by low election turnout and persistent unrest -- most experts agree: lasting change will likely come from within. Military pressure may influence the timeline, but it is unlikely to be the catalyst for regime collapse on its own.

Expert Opinion: “[The] bottom line here is that the death of Khamenei won’t guarantee a better alternative -- the result could be an even more hard-line or militaristic regime,” says Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, said on June 4 that enrichment is a vital component of Iran's nuclear capabilities. (file photo)
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, said on June 4 that enrichment is a vital component of Iran's nuclear capabilities. (file photo)

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking at how Iran is pushing to maintain its uranium enrichment capabilities and what analysts say this means for nuclear talks moving forward.

What You Need To Know

Tehran Preparing Counterproposal: Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader, said this week that Iran was preparing a counterproposal after the Iranian leader charged that Washington's proposal for a nuclear agreement went against national interests. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also insisted Iran will not abandon uranium enrichment.

Arrests Made As Truck Drivers' Strike Continues: At least 40 people, including drivers and supporters, have been arrested as a nationwide truck drivers' strike in Iran enters its third week, spreading to at least 163 cities, according to the US-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. The strike began on May 22 with truck drivers protesting low wages, high insurance costs, and a planned fuel price hike.

Iranians Barred From Entering US: President Donald Trump has reinstated a travel ban that includes Iran among 12 countries facing full entry restrictions to the United States. Taking effect on June 9, the ban suspends visa issuance for Iranian nationals, citing national security risks and insufficient vetting procedures. The decision echoes Trump's 2017 "Muslim ban" and has sparked criticism from civil rights groups and Iranian-American organizations -- including those opposed to the Islamic republic -- who argue the policy unfairly targets ordinary Iranians and further separates families already strained by political tensions.

The Big Issue

Doubling Down On Enrichment

Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, said on June 4 that enrichment is a vital component of Iran's nuclear capabilities.

This came after Trump asserted that under a potential agreement with Iran, "we will not allow any enrichment of uranium."

Khamenei said the US proposal, which has been under review since last month when Omani mediators delivered it to Tehran, undermines the principle of "we can do it ourselves," which he described as a pillar of national independence.

Shamkhani, a former national-security chief who serves as Khamenei's top political adviser, said later the US proposal makes no mention of lifting sanctions.

"We are now preparing our counterproposal," he said, insisting Tehran will resist US attempts to eliminate its nuclear program or abandon enrichment.

Why It Matters: Iran and the United States have held five rounds of negotiations aimed at curbing Tehran's rapidly expanding nuclear program in return for relief from sanctions.

Sanctions have severely weakened Iran's economy by slashing oil revenues, devaluing its currency, and isolating it from global markets while also fueling domestic hardship, political hard-lining, and a shift toward alliances with the likes of Russia and China.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last week said in its quarterly report that Iran has significantly increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, reaching 408.6 kilograms enriched up to 60 percent -- well above the 2015 nuclear deal limit of 3.67 percent.

The UN nuclear watchdog also criticized Iran for inadequate cooperation, particularly its failure to explain nuclear traces at undeclared sites.

These findings come ahead of an IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, 23 Council and potentially reinstating UN sanctions.

Iran, meanwhile, has accused Western countries of politicizing the agency and has warned the IAEA board against taking any action targeting Tehran.

What's Being Said: Damon Golriz, a lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, says the hard-line public positions adopted by Trump and Khamenei are mostly aimed at placating critics of a potential agreement.

He told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that "there is political will on both sides" to reach a deal.

"It makes sense for Iran not to want to easily abandon its nuclear fuel cycle, which took some 20 years to acquire," Golriz said.

However, Shahin Modarres, an Iranian security expert based in Rome, says Khamenei is gambling with a potential war.

Modarres told Radio Farda the Iranian leader's assessment is that backing down from his hard-line stance and making too many concessions to the United States would alienate the Islamic republic's core support base and undermine the stability of the clerical establishment. He added that Khamenei is also counting on Trump's reluctance to engage in a large-scale war to eventually lead him to drop his maximalist demands.

"With this type of thinking, Khamenei is forcing war on people…and further isolating the country," he said.

Expert Opinion: "I believe the Islamic republic started the nuclear program with the aim of developing a nuclear weapon for deterrence. I think enrichment has never been and will never be worthwhile. One reason why the world has doubts about the Islamic republic's nuclear program is that it is not economically justifiable," Behruz Bayat, a nuclear physicist, told Radio Farda.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

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