The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at how hard-liners are urging Iran’s decision-makers to green-light the development of nuclear weapons in the new Iranian year.

What You Need To Know

• Hard-liners Push For Nukes In New Year: Iranian hard-liners have renewed a push for the development of nuclear weapons in the new Iranian year, which started on March 20. As prospects of direct talks with the United States fade, they argue that only going nuclear can serve as a reliable deterrent to war.

• US Strikes To Degrade Houthis And Weaken Iran: Meanwhile, the United States has been launching wave after wave of air strikes against the Iran-backed, US-designated Yemeni terrorist group Ansarullah, better known as the Houthis. Analysts argue that the attacks are not only meant to restore freedom of navigation, but also serve as a warning to Iran.

• Authorities Step Up Crackdown On Female Singers: Iran has intensified its efforts to suppress female singers, detaining or summoning several women in recent weeks as part of a broader crackdown. Authorities have also targeted their online presence, shutting down Instagram accounts to further silence their voices. RFE/RL’s Radio Farda has the story.

The Big Issue

Have No Fear, Go Nuclear?

Sentiment to develop nuclear weapons has been growing in Iran in recent years, particularly among hard-liners who staunchly oppose engagement with the West.

The renewed calls come as Iran is weighing how to respond to a letter from US President Donald Trump on direct negotiations to reach a new deal over Iran’s nuclear program.

In a Nowruz appearance on state television, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on March 20 that the Islamic republic’s policy was to not have direct talks with the United States. He added that Iran is in “no rush” to respond to the letter, but will reply “in a few days.”

The letter, which Axios says includes a two-month deadline to reach a deal, is “mostly threats but also claims to have opportunities,” Araqchi said.

Why It Matters: Iran and Western powers are in a race against time. The 2015 nuclear deal, which has been effectively defunct since Trump withdrew the United States from it during his first term in office in 2018, expires this October.

In other words, the United States and its European allies only have until then to trigger the deal’s “snapback mechanism” to reimpose UN sanctions against Tehran. Without a new nuclear deal, the sanctions will, in all likelihood, return before October.

That could prompt Iran to weaponize its nuclear program, risking Israeli -- and possibly US -- air strikes on its nuclear facilities.

Last month, The New York Times reported that Iran was exploring the possibility of building a crude nuclear weapon to ward off an attack, but experts argue Western intelligence would still be able to detect it in time to launch an attack.

Curiously, there are those in Iran who prefer a limited attack on nuclear facilities to giving into US demands. They argue that, if the Islamic republic survives an attack on its nuclear sites, it would be worth the trade-off.

What's Being Said: Going for shock and awe, the hardline Vatan-e Emrooz newspaper’s yearend front page displayed a large picture of a mushroom cloud with a headline simply reading, “Nuclear Year.”

The paper alleged that, because the United States “cannot be trusted,” the world at large is moving toward nuclear weapons.

Nezamoddin Mousavi, a hard-line commentator, argued that, despite being militarily well-equipped, Japan during World War II lacked nuclear weapons.

“Japan had everything except for an atomic bomb, which America did have!” he wrote on X.

Nour News, which is affiliated with former national-security adviser Ali Shamkhani, hinted that Iran might withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if Washington and its allies “make good on their threats.”

Expert Opinion: “The chances for an Israeli-American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities this summer just went up pretty significantly,” Nadav Pollak, a lecturer at the Tel Aviv-based Reichman University, wrote on March 19.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking at why Iran continues to reject direct talks with the Donald Trump administration while weighing its response to the US president's nuclear outreach.

What You Need To Know

• Trump’s Letter To Khamenei Arrives In Tehran: US President Donald Trump’s letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposing talks over a nuclear deal was delivered this week by an Emirati delegation. Hours before the delegation arrived, Khamenei reiterated his stance that there was no point in negotiating with Washington.

• IRGC Veteran Claims Killing Of Iranian Dissidents In Europe: Mohsen Rafiqdoost, one of the founders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed this week that he had orchestrated the killings of several high-profile Iranian dissidents in Europe between 1979 and 1992. His office later attributed the comments to “extensive complications” from a brain operation, while the IRGC dismissed Rafiqdoost’s comments as “his personal opinion.” One dissident whose assassination Rafiqdoost claimed is Fereydoun Farrokhzad. RFE/RL’s Radio Farda has produced a documentary on his grisly killing.

• Spotlight On Iran And Russia After Violence In Syria: While the eruption of violence in western Syria has raised questions about the transitional government’s ability to control its affiliated factions, it has also brought Russian and Iranian involvement in Syrian affairs into sharp focus. Through interviews and analysis of open-source data, RFE/RL can give a clearer picture of what's happening inside Syria.

The Big Issue

Will Talks Lift Pressure On Iran? Khamenei Doesn’t Think So

Khamenei on March 12 again dismissed the prospect of talks with the Trump administration, telling an audience in Tehran that “negotiating with this US administration won’t result in the sanctions being removed.”

As Khamenei was delivering his speech, Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, was on his way to Tehran to deliver Trump’s letter to the Iranian supreme leader.

The contents of the letter have not been disclosed, but Trump said last week when he revealed he had written to Khamenei that Washington “cannot let [Iran] have a nuclear weapon”, insisting that he preferred a peaceful resolution to tension over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Why It Matters: Iran’s economy has been reeling from years of sanctions, particularly after Trump, in his first term, pulled the US out of a landmark nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions.

But more sanctions could come if Tehran and Washington don’t reach an agreement. With the 2015 nuclear deal formally expiring in October 2025, world powers only have a few months before they lose the power to “snap back” UN sanctions on Iran.

Washington’s European allies have gradually begun threatening Tehran that they will trigger a return of the sanctions. Iran has threatened to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if UN sanctions are reimposed.

While the Islamic republic has not formally responded to Trump’s letter, the White House has warned that military action is very much on the table should Iran reject the US president’s outreach.

What's Being Said: Khamenei claimed in his speech that negotiating with Trump “will cause the knot of sanctions to become tighter and pressure to increase,” though he didn’t elaborate further.

Shahin Modarres, an Iranian security expert based in Rome, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the weakening of Iran’s offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as the unraveling of its network of regional proxies, have left Tehran with “no leverage” at the negotiating table.

“The lack of leverage at the table leads to a kind of surrender,” he said.

In an interview published on March 13, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran won’t negotiate with Washington as long as Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign is in force.

“If we enter negotiations while the other side is imposing maximum pressure, we will be negotiating from a weak position and will achieve nothing,” he said, adding that talks can only take place when both nations are on “equal footing.”

Expert Opinion: “Negotiating with this US administration could result in some sanctions being removed. That's what negotiations address: Often they fail, occasionally they succeed. Dismissing negotiations, especially out of hand, guarantees that the knot of sanctions becomes tighter,” writes Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at International Crisis Group.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.