The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at concerns in Tehran that Russia might sell Iran out in order to get a good deal with the United States.

What You Need To Know

• Apprehensive Iran Watches U.S.-Russia Talks: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Riyadh on February 18 in what were the first direct talks between top American and Russian officials on ending the war in Ukraine. The development has fueled concerns in Tehran that Moscow will abandon Iran to revive relations with Washington.

• Potential For Saudi Mediation Between Tehran And Washington: Saudi Arabia has reportedly offered to mediate talks between its rival Iran and ally the United States. Analysts say the Saudis are driven by ensuring stability in the region and a desire to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb as they seek to become a global economic and diplomatic powerhouse.

• Khamenei Wants Qatar To Release Iranian Assets: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 19 told the visiting Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to ignore U.S. “pressure” and release Iranian assets in Qatar. Around $6 billion in frozen funds were transferred from South Korea to Qatar as part of a 2023 deal with the United States that included the release of American citizens in Iran. Masud Aflak, a political analyst based in the United Arab Emirates, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Doha will never release Tehran's assets without an agreement between Iran and the United States.

The Big Issue

Iran Fears Being Hung Out To Dry

The Riyadh talks ended after more than fours hours with the top U.S. and Russian diplomats agreeing to move quickly to normalize relations and start negotiations on ending the Ukraine conflict, which marks its three-year anniversary on February 24.

Almost as soon as Rubio and Lavrov finished their meeting, online chatter among Iranians focused on one question: Could Russia sell Iran out to get a deal with the United States?

Fueling this sentiment is a comment by Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, who said on February 15 that “it is very important” to prevent Russia’s alliances with Iran, China, and North Korea from solidifying.

Why It Matters: Tehran and Moscow have grown closer and enhanced military cooperation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and was hit by a slew of Western sanctions. Iran has notably been providing Russia with cheap but deadly drones that have been used against Ukraine, though both Tehran and Moscow deny it.

In January, they signed a 20-year strategic agreement to strengthen economic, political, and military ties.

Iran relies on Russia and China to protect itself against sanctions as well as resolutions tabled at the UN Security Council.

What's Being Said: The moderate conservative newspaper Jomhuriy-e Eslami, which has long warned against trusting Moscow, charged on February 19 that the “repercussions” of any U.S.-Russia agreement will impact Iran because Moscow has a record of going back on its promises to its allies.

Iran-based commentator Saeed Meshkat said he was “pessimistic” about the talks because “Ukraine and Iran will ultimately become bargaining chips” in future negotiations.

Mohsen Milani, a political analyst based in the United States, urged Tehran to reconsider its position on direct talks with Washington before Russia can negotiate Iran’s rights away to secure its own interests.

Expert Opinion: “As a principle in international relations, power is a determining factor. Naturally, it is not strange for super powers to use smaller countries as tools and leverage to secure their interests,” Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Radio Farda.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at Iran’s continuing struggles with blackouts and how it is frustrating a public already at its limits.

What You Need To Know

• Iran Faces Unplanned Blackouts And Forced Closures: Government offices, banks, and schools have been closed as the authorities struggle to meet the rising demand for electricity. Unplanned blackouts have disrupted everyday life across more than half of the country.

• Rial Sinks To Record Low As Economy Worsens: The Iranian currency plunged to a record low against the dollar earlier this week after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to dismiss negotiations with the United States over Tehran's disputed nuclear program. The Iranian leader's position has outraged the public as the country's economy continues to struggle under crippling U.S. sanctions, leading many to argue that, at this rate, another round of nationwide protests is a matter of when, not if.

• Israel 'Likely' To Hit Iranian Nuclear Sites This Year: U.S. intelligence has concluded that Israel is "likely" to strike Iran's nuclear program in the coming months, according to reports by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. The assessment is that Israel sees an opening to hit Iran due to Tehran's increased security vulnerabilities. Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that this possibility has been floated for months, but the recent reports by major outlets could be an attempt by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to bring Iran to the negotiating table.

The Big Issue

Blame Game Heats Up

Tehran faced extensive power outages this week, disrupting daily life and sparking public frustration.

The crisis, which began earlier this year with electricity cuts to industrial zones, has now reached the capital, leaving residents without hot water, functioning elevators, and access to parking due to power-dependent systems. Traffic chaos ensued as streetlights failed.

Government officials this week traded blame, with the Energy Ministry claiming power plants are not receiving enough fuel and the Oil Ministry accusing the national power company of poor management.

Social media erupted with complaints. Tehran's mayor distanced the municipality from responsibility, citing localized power failures as the cause.

Why It Matters: Although Iran holds the world's second-largest natural gas reserves, energy shortages remain a recurring issue during summer and winter.

Iran's energy subsidies keep bills low, encouraging overconsumption.

However, the situation is further exacerbated by severe mismanagement and aging infrastructure, which have greatly hindered the country's ability to meet the growing demand for gas.

But the public's patience is running out. The prospects of talks with the United States are dimming, the economy is worsening, and blackouts are becoming more frequent. Users on social media reported that after outages hit Tehran on February 11, people could be heard chanting against the Islamic republic from their windows.

What's Being Said: As the oil and energy ministries lash out at each other in the media, other government officials have sought to calm tensions.

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, while conceding that power plants are not receiving enough gas, insisted this week that no single ministry is solely responsible.

Mohammad Allahdad, deputy head of the state-run Tavanir power company, pinned the energy imbalance on "illegally operated" bitcoin miners.

On social media, one user echoed a widely shared sentiment about Iran's nuclear program, writing: "What is the purpose of nuclear energy when we have neither electricity nor a bomb?"

Expert Opinion: Tehran-based academic Hatam Qaderi to Radio Farda on the possibility of nationwide protests: "Iran has been in a restless period for a long time, so anything can happen…. The Islamic republic has spent billions of dollars on the nuclear program and [expanding its regional influence] and people are experiencing ruin."

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.