The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I’m looking at why Iran needs the results of Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections to go its way, and what it would mean if Tehran doesn’t get the result it wants.

What You Need To Know

• Eyes On Iraq: Iraq’s parliamentary elections on November 11 come at a critical moment for Tehran. With its influence in the region facing growing challenges, the results could determine whether Iran keeps a key foothold or ends up juggling proxies from a distance, at a higher cost.

• Leftist Economists, Sociologists Detained: Security forces in Tehran raided several homes this week, going after left-leaning scholars and writers. They arrested economist Parviz Sedaqat, sociologist Mahsa Asadollahnejad, and translator Shirin Karimi, and they summoned economist Mohammad Maljoo, whose status is still unclear. There’s no official explanation yet. Hossein Qazian, a US-based Iranian sociologist, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda the authorities are sending a message: a show of force to remind critics the state hasn’t lost its grip.

• Ask Me Anything, On Reddit: I've been fielding sharp questions on Iran and the wider Middle East on Reddit this week. If you’re into nuanced takes and back-and-forths, you might enjoy the thread. I’ll be answering until later today, so if there’s something on your mind, you’ve still got time to drop it in. Go on, AMA!

The Big Issue

Holding On To Iraq

Setbacks in Syria and increasing pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon have made Iraq the central stage for Iran to protect its regional influence, maintain economic access, and preserve its deterrence strategy.

In other words, what happens in Baghdad over the next few weeks could have ripple effects far beyond Iraq’s borders.

Shi’ite factions within Iraq’s Coordination Framework -- home to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani -- are now at odds over US-backed moves to disband the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the Iran-aligned militias folded into Iraq’s army.

Once united under Tehran, many Shi’ite groups are now running against each other, signaling a shift toward transactional politics. Last month, Iran sent Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani to Baghdad to try to contain the rivalries, but it’s still unclear if he succeeded.

Why It Matters: For Tehran, Iraq has become its most crucial foothold -- the go-to anchor for regional influence and deterrence as its options elsewhere in the Middle East shrink.

With Iraq’s Shi’ite Coordination Framework showing cracks and voters growing tired of militia politics, there’s an opening for more nationalist forces to chip away at Iran’s grip on government formation, especially if turnout is low and coalition talks drag on.

US pressure to disarm the PMF and tighten state control directly challenges Tehran’s leverage, making heavy-handed tactics riskier and costlier.

For Iran, a real setback would be a coalition that sidelines its closest allies from key posts in security, energy, and finance -- curbing PMF budgets and steering ministries toward economic diversification.

Still, even if pro-Iran parties lose ground, Tehran isn’t out of moves. Its networks in Iraq’s militias, media, and backroom politics can still give it veto power in postelection bargaining. Iran has long shown it can turn chaos into leverage -- just look at Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon’s political deadlock from 2016 to 2020.

What's Being Said: Iranian officials have mostly stayed quiet about the upcoming elections next door, but state-linked media have been sounding the alarm for weeks about what they call Western attempts to sway the vote.

The hard-line Tasnim News Agency, tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), claimed the US Embassy in Baghdad has “become a hub for shaping and directing Iraq’s elections.” It also accused Israel and several Gulf Arab states of trying to influence the outcome in hopes of pressuring the “axis of resistance.”

Meanwhile, the official IRNA news agency quoted pro-Iran Iraqi commentators who say Washington wants a say in forming Iraq’s next government.

Expert Opinion: "The parliamentary elections could indeed be consequential for Iran, because if its preferred candidates fare poorly, it's just another thing that goes wrong for Tehran and could lead to a cascading effect where Iranian power is viewed as significantly diminished," said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I’m looking into reports that Iran is taking deliveries of a precursor for solid missile propellant from China to replenish its missile stockpile.

What You Need To Know

• Chinese Missile Fuel Ingredient: Western intelligence reports say Iran has been importing large quantities of sodium perchlorate from China in 2025, including an initial 1,000-ton shipment early in the year and a larger wave totaling around 2,000 tons since late September. The substance is used as a precursor for solid missile propellant oxidizers like ammonium perchlorate.

• Activist’s Death Sentence Commuted: Imprisoned labor activist Sharifeh Mohammadi’s death sentenced has been commuted to 30 years in prison, her lawyer Amir Raeesian announced this week. He added that he will seek a retrial and will continue efforts to overturn her conviction and secure an acquittal on the charge of “baghi,” or armed rebellion. Mohammadi was initially sentenced to death in July 2024 but the ruling was overturned months later due to “flaws and ambiguities.” She was again sentenced to death in February -- a verdict that was upheld in in August.

• Iran’s Young Women Athletes Light Up Bahrain: Iranian female athletes delivered a milestone-filled week, rewriting record books with historic team crowns and standout individual medals across the Asian Youth Games in Bahrain. The under-18 girls’ volleyball team seized a first-ever Asian title in a five-set epic over Indonesia, capping a landmark run. Iran's girls’ handballers made history with the country’s first gold in the sport at Asian level after five straight wins, including a dominant 43–26 victory over India. The Iranian girls’ futsal team edged China on penalties to lift the youth games trophy in Manama. Individually, judoka Mahsa Shakibaei struck gold in the 48-kilo category, hailed as a breakthrough for women’s judo, while weightlifter Nasim Qasemi added two silvers to underscore Iran's depth in strength sports. Separately, the women’s rugby team took a historic Asian silver, finishing runners-up at the Asia Rugby Emirates Sevens Trophy in Muscat -- the first Asian medal in the team’s history.

The Big Issue

Building Back Up

CNN, citing European intelligence, reported this week that at least 10 shipments of sodium perchlorate totaling roughly 2,000 tons began arriving in Iran on September 29, after UN sanctions were reimposed via the European-triggered “snapback” mechanism, with several ships and companies already under US sanctions linked to these transfers.

Earlier this year, the Financial Times and Reuters reported on two Iranian-flagged ships, Golbon and Jairan, which are believed to have carried more than 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate from near Shanghai to Bandar Abbas.

You might recall the deadly explosion at the Shahid Rajaei port back in April. Though Iran denies it, independent experts at the time said the blast appeared to be due to the improper storage of sodium perchlorate.

Why It Matters: The UN sanctions “snapback,” initiated by Britain, France, and Germany -- the so-called E3 -- reinstated restrictions on Iranian arms and missile activities; however, experts note sodium perchlorate itself may not be explicitly listed, creating a legal gray area that Beijing can use while stating it enforces controls on dual-use items.

Sodium perchlorate is a common precursor used to produce ammonium perchlorate -- which is, in fact, banned under sanctions.

Ammonium perchlorate is the primary oxidizer in many solid-fuel rocket motors for medium-range missiles, making bulk imports of its precursor a strong indicator of scaling solid-propellant production capacity.

The shipment volumes, particularly since late September, imply significant potential output, consistent with efforts to rebuild and possibly expand missile inventories after their depletion during the war with Israel in June.

With its senior echelon of military leadership eliminated and its defenses decimated after the war, Iran has been looking to China for help.

It is unclear how Iran is paying for this, but Reuters reported this week that Tehran has increased its light crude discount to $8 a barrel -- the widest in over a year.

What's Being Said: As expected, there has been no comment from Tehran or Beijing on the reports -- but plenty of analyses from commentators.

Gregory Brew, a senior Iran researcher and energy analyst at Eurasia Group, said there was nothing unexpected about Tehran wanting to replenish its missile stockpile or Beijing helping it in this effort..

The “test will be whether active efforts by Iran to rebuild missile stocks prompts renewed Israeli military action,” he wrote on X. “Whether Israel can live with an Iran that is rearming, but not rebuilding [its] nuclear program, or whether Israel sees utility in ‘mowing the grass’ and is undeterred.”

Michael Horowitz, an independent analyst based in Israel, speculated that the sodium perchlorate shipments constituted “only a small part” of Chinese aid to Iran. “My guess is this might just be the…tip of the iceberg.”

Expert Opinion: While China and Russia were long seen as offering Iran mostly diplomatic backing, recent developments -- most notably China’s reported shipments of sodium perchlorate -- suggest Beijing and Moscow are increasing their support, according to Damon Golriz of The Hague University of Applied Sciences.

He told Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the US‑led world order "has become fragile," creating space for China and Russia to "fill the power vacuum," with assistance to Iran and North Korea fitting that strategy.

Golriz also argued that Iran is replenishing its missile arsenal at a "faster rate" than Israel is restocking its air defenses.

He added that Tehran will ultimately seek nuclear weapons as a perceived guarantee of regime survival, though he expects any decisive move only after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.