The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I’m looking at how a promotional video by a private contractor in Iran may have inadvertently revealed the construction of a subterranean military base.

What You Need To Know

• Op-Sec Failure: An Iranian civilian contractor that specializes in manufacturing blast-resistant doors posted promotional videos on social media that inadvertently revealed multiple fortified tunnel construction projects apparently linked to Iran's army.

• Water Crisis Becoming Critical: Iran is facing a severe water crisis caused by years of mismanagement and drought, forcing authorities to ration water in Tehran. Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian has warned that parts of the city may need to be evacuated or the capital relocated. Kaveh Madani, director of the Canadian-based United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health, has told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the warnings by the authorities didn't go far enough. Have a look at satellite images of key lakes and reservoirs across Iran to see the extent of the country's crippling drought crisis.

• Iran Ramps Up Construction At Underground Nuclear Facility: Satellite images reveal that while Iran’s previously targeted nuclear sites remain inactive, construction has ramped up at a new underground facility near Natanz. Experts say the site, buried beneath Pickaxe Mountain, was initially intended for centrifuge assembly but may now be part of a broader nuclear project. Radio Farda spoke with Joseph Rodgers of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), who analyzed the images.

The Big Issue

Instagram Op-Sec Fail

The contractor's videos on Instagram showcased the installation of reinforced tunnel doors, blast-proof chambers, and underground storage facilities designed to withstand aerial or missile strikes.

The footage appeared to depict entrances to tunnels that open-source analysts believe are large enough to house drones or serve as munitions storage facilities.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which has for years boasted about its underground “missile cities,” was quick to deny any links to the facilities. A close inspection of the videos, however, reveals the insignia of the army -- not the IRGC -- on a banner installed in the tunnels.

Why It Matters: These types of hardened underground facilities are commonly associated with Iran's ballistic missile and drone programs, as well as protection systems for key military assets.

The inadvertent disclosure offers a rare public glimpse into Iran's expanding network of fortified military infrastructure -- information that would normally be closely guarded.

The timing is particularly sensitive given the heightened regional tensions and recent strikes on Iranian facilities.

Iran has been investing heavily in underground facilities to protect strategic assets from potential Israeli or US airstrikes, including sites for drone and missile production.

The contractor's social-media promotion essentially handed intelligence analysts detailed views of construction techniques, door specifications, and facility layouts that would normally require extensive covert intelligence gathering.

What's Being Said: The videos sparked immediate debate within Iran about security vulnerabilities and operational security failures. But aside from the IRGC statement distancing itself from the breach, there has been no official comment -- not even from the army.

On X, questions were raised about the apparent lapse in security, with some attributing it to “rampant corruption”.

Others, including military commentators, wondered if the new blast-resistant doors are really strong enough to do what they’re supposed to.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I’m looking at why Iran needs the results of Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections to go its way, and what it would mean if Tehran doesn’t get the result it wants.

What You Need To Know

• Eyes On Iraq: Iraq’s parliamentary elections on November 11 come at a critical moment for Tehran. With its influence in the region facing growing challenges, the results could determine whether Iran keeps a key foothold or ends up juggling proxies from a distance, at a higher cost.

• Leftist Economists, Sociologists Detained: Security forces in Tehran raided several homes this week, going after left-leaning scholars and writers. They arrested economist Parviz Sedaqat, sociologist Mahsa Asadollahnejad, and translator Shirin Karimi, and they summoned economist Mohammad Maljoo, whose status is still unclear. There’s no official explanation yet. Hossein Qazian, a US-based Iranian sociologist, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda the authorities are sending a message: a show of force to remind critics the state hasn’t lost its grip.

• Ask Me Anything, On Reddit: I've been fielding sharp questions on Iran and the wider Middle East on Reddit this week. If you’re into nuanced takes and back-and-forths, you might enjoy the thread. I’ll be answering until later today, so if there’s something on your mind, you’ve still got time to drop it in. Go on, AMA!

The Big Issue

Holding On To Iraq

Setbacks in Syria and increasing pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon have made Iraq the central stage for Iran to protect its regional influence, maintain economic access, and preserve its deterrence strategy.

In other words, what happens in Baghdad over the next few weeks could have ripple effects far beyond Iraq’s borders.

Shi’ite factions within Iraq’s Coordination Framework -- home to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani -- are now at odds over US-backed moves to disband the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the Iran-aligned militias folded into Iraq’s army.

Once united under Tehran, many Shi’ite groups are now running against each other, signaling a shift toward transactional politics. Last month, Iran sent Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani to Baghdad to try to contain the rivalries, but it’s still unclear if he succeeded.

Why It Matters: For Tehran, Iraq has become its most crucial foothold -- the go-to anchor for regional influence and deterrence as its options elsewhere in the Middle East shrink.

With Iraq’s Shi’ite Coordination Framework showing cracks and voters growing tired of militia politics, there’s an opening for more nationalist forces to chip away at Iran’s grip on government formation, especially if turnout is low and coalition talks drag on.

US pressure to disarm the PMF and tighten state control directly challenges Tehran’s leverage, making heavy-handed tactics riskier and costlier.

For Iran, a real setback would be a coalition that sidelines its closest allies from key posts in security, energy, and finance -- curbing PMF budgets and steering ministries toward economic diversification.

Still, even if pro-Iran parties lose ground, Tehran isn’t out of moves. Its networks in Iraq’s militias, media, and backroom politics can still give it veto power in postelection bargaining. Iran has long shown it can turn chaos into leverage -- just look at Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon’s political deadlock from 2016 to 2020.

What's Being Said: Iranian officials have mostly stayed quiet about the upcoming elections next door, but state-linked media have been sounding the alarm for weeks about what they call Western attempts to sway the vote.

The hard-line Tasnim News Agency, tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), claimed the US Embassy in Baghdad has “become a hub for shaping and directing Iraq’s elections.” It also accused Israel and several Gulf Arab states of trying to influence the outcome in hopes of pressuring the “axis of resistance.”

Meanwhile, the official IRNA news agency quoted pro-Iran Iraqi commentators who say Washington wants a say in forming Iraq’s next government.

Expert Opinion: "The parliamentary elections could indeed be consequential for Iran, because if its preferred candidates fare poorly, it's just another thing that goes wrong for Tehran and could lead to a cascading effect where Iranian power is viewed as significantly diminished," said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.