Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two issues: The EU’s new “democracy shield” & who the next EU member states are.
Briefing #1: What Is The EU’s Democracy Shield?
What You Need To Know: The European Commission is preparing to present its latest plan to protect the bloc and EU candidate countries from foreign interference and political manipulation. The "democracy shield," as it's being called, is a collection of proposals to be rolled out in the coming years. An advanced draft of the document, seen by RFE/RL, emphasizes that Russia is the main direct threat to both the European Union and those nations aiming to join the bloc. The European Commission will present the plan on November 12. "In addition to its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia is also escalating hybrid attacks, waging a battle of influence against Europe. The tactics used are reaching deep into the fabric of our societies, with potentially long-lasting impacts," the draft says. "By spreading deceitful narratives, sometimes including the manipulation and falsification of historical facts, they try to erode trust in democratic systems."
No other country is mentioned in the 30-page-text, even though the bloc has previously voiced worries about China's attempts to wield political influence throughout the continent. The issue of fighting disinformation and foreign interference is controversial both in Brussels and beyond. The EU is still reeling from the broadside fired by the US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference in February, in which he argued that the danger for the EU wasn't coming from China or Russia but rather internally via censorship and suppression of dissent and voices. The criticism came shortly after Romania's Constitutional Court in December 2024 annulled the result of the first round of voting in the presidential election just days before the second round was due to take place. The court ruled that the Kremlin had run an online campaign to promote nationalist candidate Calin Georgescu, who finished first. Many critics accused the court of political interference in the election and of impinging on free speech. The European Commission is therefore treading carefully.
Deep Background: While part of that caution comes because many of these issues are the responsibility of individual member states, it's also because Brussels is wary of being even more antagonistic toward large online platforms, notably US-based ones such as Google, Microsoft and Meta, as transatlantic relations have become unpredictable with trade wars and fears of the United States pulling out more troops from the Continent.
Yet the draft suggests the EU must engage with these tech giants. Most of them, with the glaring exception of Elon Musk's X, have signed up to the EU's Code of Conduct on Disinformation, which means companies such as Facebook and TikTok provide regular updates to the European Commission on how they're addressing the issue.
The paper suggests the European Commission should push such companies to do more to "demonetize disinformation" and improve the detection and labeling of AI-generated and manipulated content. The focus of the "democracy shield" is threefold: improving situational awareness, supporting democratic institutions and free media, and boosting citizen engagement. The main proposal is for the creation of a European Center for Democratic Resilience. This would be a hub that would "link together existing networks and structures working on prevention, detection, analysis, and response to patterns of threats in the information space, and work to develop joint approaches, practices and methodologies and exchanging relevant data and analyses."
Drilling Down:
- The EU tried this once before, in 2019, but the Rapid Alert System never really took off. This second attempt will involve EU institutions, member states, and even candidate countries such as Moldova and Ukraine as well as those in the Western Balkans.
- The European Commission, however, wants to make it clear this isn't some sort of Ministry of Truth. The plans would be rolled out gradually, participation will be voluntary, and the center will operate in "respect EU and national competences."
- Other ideas include the roll-out of an "EU digital identity wallet" next year for EU citizens and residents, the creation of a European network of fact-checkers who will work on a fact-checking repository, and "a voluntary network of influencers to raise awareness about relevant EU rules and promote the exchange of best practice."
- Recalling September's parliamentary election in Moldova, in which Russia was heavily involved in trying to shape the outcome, the draft also suggests that EU election observation missions outside the bloc should be strengthened "to assist national authorities throughout the electoral cycle" -- something Brussels is likely to do again in next year's hotly contested parliamentary elections in Armenia.
- In the same fashion, there is also a proposal to extend the mandate of the European Digital Media Observatory, which provides research and analysis on disinformation campaigns. It will now get more funding to do more work around elections, not only in EU member states but also partner countries.
- The financial backing of independent media and journalism in the EU neighborhood, including Belarus and Russia, is also mentioned in the paper.
- No concrete sums are mentioned.
- However, many of the programs suggested under the "democracy shield" are currently included in the European Commission's 2 trillion-euro ($2.3 trillion) proposal for the next seven-year EU budget, starting in 2028.
Briefing #2: The EU Is Ready To Expand, But Who Will Be The Next Member – And When?
What You Need To Know: The European Commission's annual enlargement report appears to show the EU's executive is serious about adding new members by the time its five-year mandate ends in late 2029. And it has identified four candidates for that purpose: Albania, Moldova, Montenegro, and Ukraine. The November 4 report, the first issued since the new commission took office late last year, is designed to assess the progress (or lack thereof) of 10 EU hopefuls, which also include Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey.
But this year the report took on a distinctly geopolitical tone. According to officials in Brussels, EU enlargement has become a thing again. The last country to join was Croatia back in 2013, and since then the bloc actually contracted for the first time ever when Britain left in 2020. The 2025 annual report states that the "this is the first Commission mandate since 2010-2014 where, given the accelerating pace of the process for some candidate countries, enlargement is a realistic possibility" and that the entire process "now moving faster than in the last 15 years." The change of pace has everything to do with Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine -- launched in 2022 -- with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas noting that "geopolitical shifts make the case for enlargement clear-cut. Enlargement is not a nice-to-have; it is a necessity if we want to be a stronger player on the world stage."
Deep Background: The smart money is on Montenegro being the next addition. Podgorica aims to wrap up EU accession talks by the end of 2026, and the report notes that the country "is on track to meet this ambitious objective." Ultimately, this isn't the call of the European Commission, nor the candidate countries. The 27 current EU member states decide via unanimity to open and close the 33 accession chapters covering all policy fields that EU hopefuls need to adopt in order to become a fully-fledged member. Podgorica has been negotiating for 13 years already, and while it has opened talks on all 33 chapters, it has managed to close just seven. However, most of those have been in the past 12 months, which shows a momentum toward accession. In December, it plans to close another five, but this might be a bit too optimistic according to EU diplomats contacted by RFE/RL. Worries remain, especially regarding the fight against organized crime and corruption and the independence of the judiciary. Thus, next year may be too soon, but word on the street says Montenegro very well might be "EU member state number 28 in '28."
Albania might be the next best bet for membership. The government in Tirana hopes to conclude talks in 2027, and the commission believes this is doable. Albania's candidate progress in the past 12 months has been nothing short of stunning: It has managed to open 28 of 33 chapters and is set to commence negotiations on the final five later this month. The key, however, is closing the chapters, and that is more difficult. Tirana also faces a PR challenge: While Albania is a growing tourist destination -- and plenty of Europeans are snapping up coastal properties there -- the country still carries the negative reputation of being a hotbed of organized crime. It's no surprise then that the European Commission recommends Tirana put even more effort into "investigations of drug traffickers and an increase in identifying and the dismantling of criminal groups."
Drilling Down:
- Moldova and Ukraine, meanwhile, solidly remain "coupled" -- as they have since both applied for membership in 2022 -- despite rumors this year that they'll be separated.
- Forging its own path would have allowed Moldova to start accession talks as Ukraine has been blocked by Hungary for over a year and is likely to remain stalled until the next parliamentary election in the Central European country in April 2026.
- Moldova hopes to join in 2028, and Ukraine believes it could join at some point this decade despite the ongoing war. Both countries received the best assessments by the commission to date even though Kyiv was cautioned earlier this year about the influence of the special anti-corruption agencies NABU and SAP.
- While the countries remain blocked, all EU member states bar Hungary have agreed to continue the technical work with Chisinau and Kyiv while waiting to get the final political green light from Budapest that could come with a change of government next year. The idea is then to open as many chapters as possible immediately.
- The common belief in most EU capitals is that roughly half can be opened. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos even remarked, somewhat optimistically, that negotiations on all 33 can commence immediately if only Budapest would change its mind.
- In the meantime, talks will continue on how to make the enlargement process more practical. The president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, floated the idea that only unanimity should be needed to start and finish accession talks -- a suggestion quickly shot down by EU member states that prefer to have several brakes to pull to slow down the process.
- Hungary isn't the only country having issues with its non-EU neighbors: Bulgaria is currently blocking North Macedonia, and Croatia wants to keep Serbia in check before Belgrade can join.
- Plenty of other types of political "test balloons" have also been released in recent weeks on how enlargement can work. There's been talk of not letting new members have voting rights on certain issues -- a sort of secondary membership that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately dismissed when asked about it last week.
- The European Commission will in the meantime work on pre-enlargement policy reviews and reforms in order to assess the impact of new members on various policy areas.
- Kos already floated the idea of a mechanism to suspend voting rights or deny access to EU funds for new members in case of rule-of-law violations. All this is a clear nod to older, Western EU member states that have been lukewarm on expanding the club out of fear of "another Hungary" in reference to Viktor Orban's many rule-of-law transgressions and battles with Brussels over the years.
- The most likely way to make enlargement manageable is something used in the past: transition periods. This mechanism was used in the 2004 enlargement of eight Central and Eastern European countries, whose citizens, for example, weren't allowed to immediately seek work in other parts of the EU.
- Poland, with its large agrarian market, was also not fully integrated into the EU's single market overnight. A similar arrangement for Ukrainian agricultural products, which have caused political problems in parts of the club, would not be surprising.
- Of the four candidate countries, Ukraine has the most uphill battle ahead, given its size and the challenges of the war.
- It will be much easier for the EU to "absorb" Albania, Moldova, and Montenegro. Kos alluded to the fact that the population of Montenegro, at roughly 600,000, is the same as the Belgian port city of Antwerp, and that Albania and Moldova, with fewer than 3 million citizens each, are like Rome.
- Don't be surprised if these countries are EU members 28, 29, and 30.
Looking Ahead
EU ambassadors will on November 12 give green light to a new rules that will make it easier to suspend visa liberalization. The move will then be rubberstamped by minister of the 27 EU member states before it enters into force in December. The new rules might soon be tested on Georgia whose government, according to Brussels, has been backsliding politically in several areas in recent months.
That's all for this week!
Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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