Wider Europe

Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.

I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two issues related to Armenia: the first-ever EU-Armenia summit and the bloc's new mission to the South Caucasus nation.

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Wider Europe Briefing: The EU's First-Ever Armenia Summit And New Mission To Yerevan

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Briefing #1: The First-Ever EU-Armenia Summit

What You Need To Know: Armenia has become the European Union's closest ally in the South Caucasus. While Georgia continues to drift away from the bloc and Azerbaijan remains an important partner in terms of energy imports but little else, it is now Yerevan that Brussels is truly betting on in that region.

The European Union has already made it clear it wants to counter Russian influence in the upcoming Armenian parliamentary elections on June 7, and several European officials have told RFE/RL they see it as the most important vote in the bloc's immediate neighborhood this year. The very fact that the EU is setting up a new mission (see below) in the country to counter foreign interference shows the club's intent.

Another clear indication of how highly Brussels currently values Yerevan is the first ever EU-Armenia summit taking place in the Armenian capital on May 5, which both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Council Antonio Costa are set to attend.

This comes just a day after the city hosts the summit of the European Political Community (EPC), bringing most European leaders a country that rarely gets international political attention.

Deep Background: Getting its own summit with the EU is quite a feat for the small South Caucasus republic. This is normally only reserved for really big international players such as China, India, or the United States; close and friendly neighbors like Moldova, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom; or regional blocs and groupings such as ASEAN, the African Union, or the six non-EU nations of the Western Balkans.

The summit itself will be mostly symbolic. The draft summit declaration, seen by RFE/RL, sketches out as much. There is nothing about a potential future EU membership of Armenia -- an idea that the current government has been toying with in recent years. Instead, it simply states that the "EU reaffirms its steadfast commitment to further strengthen its relations with Armenia and to support Armenia's resilience, reform agenda, and long-term development, bringing Armenia closer to the European Union."

The text also notes that leaders at the summit will discuss the geopolitical situation in both Iran and Ukraine. On Armenia's fraught relations with its neighbor Azerbaijan, there is not too much apart from a line stating that "we reaffirm our strong support for peace, security, connectivity and prosperity in the South Caucasus, and commend the efforts to further institutionalise the bilateral peace process with Azerbaijan and to ensure the final signature of the peace treaty."

Drilling Down:

• Interestingly, there's no mention of Russia in the document, even though it is likely that a line such as "Armenia's future must be determined freely and democratically by its citizens without external pressure" was probably penned with Moscow in mind.
• While not pushing Armenia to align with EU sanctions on Russia, Brussels is keen for the country to step up when it comes to preventing circumvention of the restrictive measures imposed on Moscow.
• The paper states that "We agree to continue our effective cooperation to counter sanctions circumvention, especially concerning the trade in dual use and sensitive battlefield items, including preventing the misuse of Armenia's financial sector in this regard."
• No new EU cash for Yerevan is specified in the paper, which still is referencing the 270 million euros foreseen for an EU growth plan for the country and the 2.5 billion euros Yerevan could get under the bloc's Global Gateway strategy, which is Brussels' answer to China's Belt and Road Initiative of investment in developing countries.
• Similarly, there are no new commitments to Armenia's armed forces with Brussels so far having dedicated 30 million in nonlethal aid in the last few years under the so-called European Peace Facility (EPF). There are, however, indications from EU sources RFE/RL have been in touch with that more cash will soon be offered by the EU within this program.
• The declaration also states that "The EU and Armenia are committed to enhance their relationship in the field of security and defence, including through the dedicated annual consultations."
• On other specific investments, there is a mention of the "possible Black Sea Electricity Submarine cable," a project that has been mentioned before by Brussels but hasn't commenced. There is also the development of a roadmap to decommission the country's only nuclear power plant, known as Metsamor, slightly outside Yerevan.
• On visa liberalization, one of Armenia's main aims since starting a so-called visa liberalization dialogue with Brussels in 2024, there is "significant progress" with the aim from both sides still being that Armenian citizens could travel to most EU countries without visas by the end of the decade.

Briefing #2: The EU's New Mission To Armenia

What You Need To Know: EU foreign ministers have given a green light to a new civilian mission to Armenia on April 21 that will help Yerevan with hybrid threats such as foreign election manipulation, cyberattacks, and illicit political funding over a two-year period starting in the coming months.

The mission, which will be called the European Union Partnership Mission in the Republic of Armenia (EUPM Armenia), was first requested by the South Caucasus nation in December. After several assessments in Brussels and Armenia, the bloc's ambassadors unanimously voted in favor of the proposal to establish the mission last week.

Deep Background: EUPM Armenia will essentially replace another EU mission in Armenia, called EUMA, that finishes its four-year mandate at the start of 2027 having been created in 2023.

EUMA, however, had a completely different mandate, being created to contribute to stability in the border areas of Armenia and via patrolling and reporting support normalization efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

While EUMA had over 200 people posted both in Yerevan and along the border to Azerbaijan, the new mission is expected to just have 20-30 people, mostly working in close cooperation with national authorities in the capital.

EUPM will have no links to Azerbaijan even though one of the previous EU documents related to the mission, seen by RFE/RL, stated that Brussels will "continue its outreach to Azerbaijan to explain the purpose of the EU's support to Armenia and the need to avoid negatively impacting the ongoing peace process."

Drilling Down:

• While not stated directly in the proposal to be approved by the ministers, seen by RFE/RL, it is clear Russian interference in Armenia is the main concern for the mission, notably the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia on June 7.
• According to several EU diplomats speaking under the condition of anonymity, the EU hopes to copy what it sees as the success in the parliamentary elections in Moldova last year in which pro-Brussels forces retained power.
• While not sending a fully fledged mission to Chisinau then, the bloc did provide staff to ministries to expose Russian disinformation related to the vote.
• The mission is also set to help in later local elections and in the potential constitutional referendum that might come after the national vote. That plebiscite would be part of the current peace deal with Azerbaijan, with Baku claiming the current Armenian Constitution contains territorial claims to Azerbaijan.
• Concretely, the proposal states that the mission of EUPM "shall enhance the resilience of Armenia in the field of hybrid threats through the provision of strategic advice as well as operational level advice and support to relevant security sector agencies, in line with a whole-of-government approach and in close coordination with other like-minded actors."
• According to the document this includes providing strategic advice to relevant Armenian ministries and agencies "for countering hybrid threats, notably Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) and cyber, as well as illicit financial flows in the electoral and political context."
• In a previous document by the EU foreign policy corps, the European External Actions Service (EEAS), the need to counter the Kremlin's influence in Armenia was stated clearly, with one of the reasons for the mission being that it "should be aimed clearly at reducing and mitigating Russia's destabilizing activities."
• It also warned that "Russia has intensified its coercive posture toward Armenia amid Yerevan's gradual reorientation toward the EU, exploiting Armenia's deep economic dependency and the fragile regional security environment." It added that if Brussels didn't held the country, "The EU would miss a historic opportunity to enable regional actors to free themselves from Moscow's embrace at a moment of Russian weakness in the region."

Looking Ahead

The focus in Brussels this week will very much turn to Cyprus as the Mediterranean island will host EU leaders for an informal summit on April 23-24.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the leaders via videolink, but the main discussion point will be Iran and how European nations can contribute to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and to discuss measures to lower the spiraling energy costs in the bloc due to the blockade.

That's all for this week. Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org .

Until next time,Rikard Jozwiak

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition subscribe here .

Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.

I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on one issue: What will happen with NATO after a few tough weeks.

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Wider Europe Briefing: What Now For NATO?

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The Briefing: What Now For NATO After A Rough Washington Meeting?

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s trip to the United States on April 8-12 was very much framed as “a make or break” moment for the military alliance.

With Washington increasingly exasperated by the perceived lack of help from European allies in assisting the attack on Iran and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, there were suggestions that President Donald Trump would attempt to withdraw the United States from NATO.

That didn’t happen when the pair met in the White House on April 8.

But the threat remains, as does American criticism of the alliance.

Yet, there appears to be something of a pathway for NATO to remain intact and relevant, including continued defense spending and for the Europeans to be more active in the Middle East.

It was fair to say that the transatlantic trip by the former Dutch premier carried risks.

Trump had for days lashed out at his allies, accusing European countries of “a very stupid mistake” and that “NATO has done absolutely nothing” when it came to Iran.

He also re-aired threats about his political designs on Greenland, spooking Brussels further, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that Washington will “reexamine its relationship with NATO” once the Iran campaign is over.

The criticism continued after the Trump-Rutte meeting with the former posting on Truth Social that “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”

And yet, the relief from Brussels was palpable.

Withdrawal Or Redeployment Of US Troops?

One source familiar with the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that there was “relief that they didn’t have a common press statement or conference afterwards in which we would get even more public lashing.”

Another said it was “a mixed bag.”

“Not great but it could have been worse, it was clearly a useful opportunity for Trump to vent his frustrations,” they added.

“The very fact that the meeting came just a day after the announcement of a two-week cease-fire was also seen as “a lucky coincidence” as the trip had been planned for quite some time.

Instead of going for a full withdrawal of the United States from the alliance, something that needs an unlikely two-thirds majority in the US Senate, it appears that Washington might consider moving troops from countries that are deemed to have been “unhelpful” over Iran.

This was, however, something that most European allies had expected anyway, as further reductions in US troop numbers had been discussed in the military alliance for months already, although no concrete figures have been forthcoming.

There are about 70,000 US troops in Europe spread over 30 bases, which are used both as a deterrent but also to support operations such as those in the Middle East.

That usefulness means that most European capitals believe that the Americans will stay put, albeit in reduced numbers.

“The US will not leave but they will play a back bench role in Europe -- but in many ways, they are already” one European diplomat told RFE/RL and added that the issue isn’t so much “boots on the ground” but people like intelligence officers where “a certain gap already exists.”

A More European NATO?

Rutte, however, was trying to put a positive spin on things.

Seen in Brussels as “the Trump-whisperer par excellence” in a not always flattering way, the American journey gave the NATO chief yet another chance to praise the US president.

In a CNN interview after the White House meeting, he said that it had been “a very open and frank discussion but also a discussion between good friends.” He also admitted that the president was “clearly disappointed with many NATO allies, and I can see his points.”

While some European diplomats suggested that not all EU capitals were happy with the some of Rutte’s points -- notably his assertion that there isn’t a prevalent view in the organization that the war is illegal -- and others squirmed when he refused to comment on Trump’s recent threat to extinguish an entire civilization, they still thought the meeting went as well as it could have.

Later, in a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute on April 11, Rutte outlined what he sees as a path forward ahead of the next NATO summit in Ankara in July, while pushing back against suggestions that the alliance is in decline.

“Let me be clear: this alliance is not ‘whistling past the graveyard,’ as you would say in the United States,” he said. “Allies recognize, and I recognize, we are in a period of profound change in the transatlantic alliance. Europe is assuming a greater and fairer share of the task of providing for its conventional defense. And from that, there will be no going back -- nor should there be.”

He pointed out that when Russian aircraft violated Estonian airspace last fall, it was Italian, Finnish, and Swedish jets that turned them back. And, when Russian drones swarmed into Polish territory last year, it was a Dutch F-35 fighter jet that fired at them.

Expect to hear a lot more about how Europe and Canada are stepping up defense spending. The recent NATO annual report showed that all allies -- apart from Hungary and Slovakia -- have ramped up their outlays in 2025 compared to the previous year.

NATO In The Middle East?

One NATO diplomat noted that “Ankara will be a smile-fest, and it will be about one thing only – money, and there we are doing alright.”

But going forward, it will not only be about how much Europeans spend on their defenses. They must prove useful to Washington beyond their own continent.

While much focus has been on Spain’s refusal to let the United States use its bases in the Iran campaign, NATO has been keen to point out that most other allies have tried to be of assistance.

Most importantly Germany, Portugal, and the United Kingdom have allowed Washington to use bases in their countries. France has also green-lit US aircraft presence for missions supporting Gulf partners.

And Souda Bay on the Greek island of Crete, for example, was used by the USS Gerald R. Ford to resupply, refuel, and undergo repairs before the carrier moved on to Split in Croatia for further maintenance.

NATO will be keen to trumpet more of these examples going forward.

Although Trump did not make any concrete demands at the Washington meeting, NATO officials admit that individual allies will need to step up further.

Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson who now works as a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI), told RFE/RL that more concrete things could be afoot ahead of or during the Ankara gathering.

“While there is no discussion about a NATO mission at this stage, Rutte is playing a key role behind the scenes in coordinating with British Premier [Keir] Starmer and French President [Emmanuel] Macron, putting together a coalition of the willing to secure the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities cease and to conduct military prudent planning,” she said.

“Allies could also look at ways to put stabilization of the Middle East on the agenda of the NATO summit in Ankara in July, inviting Ukraine and partners from the Gulf and the Indo-Pacific, many of whom are already involved in the emerging coalition of the willing.”

What Now For Ukraine?

Then there is the issue of Ukraine, which many European NATO allies fear will be forgotten amid the Iran war.

“We should have said ‘help us on Ukraine and we will help on Iran,’” one European diplomat told RFE/RL on condition of anonymity, adding that “we missed a trick there.”

There is still a fear that the US might withdraw crucial intelligence sharing In this area, but also that air defenses Kyiv desperately needs will go elsewhere if there is a resumption of warfare in the Middle East.

Linas Kojala, head of Geopolitics and Security Studies Center in Vilnius, told RFE/RL that this is very much the balancing act Rutte will need to perform as the Ankara summit approaches, with the shadow of Moscow very much hanging over the alliance’s eastern members.

“Rutte understands perfectly well that Europe cannot be secure without the US playing an essential role, at least in the near future,” he said. “It is not simply a question of what the US would do if Article 5 were invoked, but of keeping the US as an essential component of deterrence, starting at the strategic level and going down to conventional capabilities. For the frontline states, that is existential, so tit-for-tat escalation in rhetoric is not a pathway forward.”

Looking Ahead

EU ambassadors are due to meet in Brussels to approve a new mission to Armenia that will be officially endorsed by the bloc’s foreign ministers a week later.

The mission, which starts later this year and includes up to 100 EU nationals, will mainly help Yerevan to deal with foreign interference, such as various hybrid threats coming from Russia.

That's all for this week!

Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.

Until next time,

Rikard Jozwiak

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