Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on one issue: What will happen with NATO after a few tough weeks.
The Briefing: What Now For NATO After A Rough Washington Meeting?
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s trip to the United States on April 8-12 was very much framed as “a make or break” moment for the military alliance.
With Washington increasingly exasperated by the perceived lack of help from European allies in assisting the attack on Iran and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, there were suggestions that President Donald Trump would attempt to withdraw the United States from NATO.
That didn’t happen when the pair met in the White House on April 8.
But the threat remains, as does American criticism of the alliance.
Yet, there appears to be something of a pathway for NATO to remain intact and relevant, including continued defense spending and for the Europeans to be more active in the Middle East.
It was fair to say that the transatlantic trip by the former Dutch premier carried risks.
Trump had for days lashed out at his allies, accusing European countries of “a very stupid mistake” and that “NATO has done absolutely nothing” when it came to Iran.
He also re-aired threats about his political designs on Greenland, spooking Brussels further, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that Washington will “reexamine its relationship with NATO” once the Iran campaign is over.
The criticism continued after the Trump-Rutte meeting with the former posting on Truth Social that “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”
And yet, the relief from Brussels was palpable.
Withdrawal Or Redeployment Of US Troops?
One source familiar with the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that there was “relief that they didn’t have a common press statement or conference afterwards in which we would get even more public lashing.”
Another said it was “a mixed bag.”
“Not great but it could have been worse, it was clearly a useful opportunity for Trump to vent his frustrations,” they added.
“The very fact that the meeting came just a day after the announcement of a two-week cease-fire was also seen as “a lucky coincidence” as the trip had been planned for quite some time.
Instead of going for a full withdrawal of the United States from the alliance, something that needs an unlikely two-thirds majority in the US Senate, it appears that Washington might consider moving troops from countries that are deemed to have been “unhelpful” over Iran.
This was, however, something that most European allies had expected anyway, as further reductions in US troop numbers had been discussed in the military alliance for months already, although no concrete figures have been forthcoming.
There are about 70,000 US troops in Europe spread over 30 bases, which are used both as a deterrent but also to support operations such as those in the Middle East.
That usefulness means that most European capitals believe that the Americans will stay put, albeit in reduced numbers.
“The US will not leave but they will play a back bench role in Europe -- but in many ways, they are already” one European diplomat told RFE/RL and added that the issue isn’t so much “boots on the ground” but people like intelligence officers where “a certain gap already exists.”
A More European NATO?
Rutte, however, was trying to put a positive spin on things.
Seen in Brussels as “the Trump-whisperer par excellence” in a not always flattering way, the American journey gave the NATO chief yet another chance to praise the US president.
In a CNN interview after the White House meeting, he said that it had been “a very open and frank discussion but also a discussion between good friends.” He also admitted that the president was “clearly disappointed with many NATO allies, and I can see his points.”
While some European diplomats suggested that not all EU capitals were happy with the some of Rutte’s points -- notably his assertion that there isn’t a prevalent view in the organization that the war is illegal -- and others squirmed when he refused to comment on Trump’s recent threat to extinguish an entire civilization, they still thought the meeting went as well as it could have.
Later, in a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute on April 11, Rutte outlined what he sees as a path forward ahead of the next NATO summit in Ankara in July, while pushing back against suggestions that the alliance is in decline.
“Let me be clear: this alliance is not ‘whistling past the graveyard,’ as you would say in the United States,” he said. “Allies recognize, and I recognize, we are in a period of profound change in the transatlantic alliance. Europe is assuming a greater and fairer share of the task of providing for its conventional defense. And from that, there will be no going back -- nor should there be.”
He pointed out that when Russian aircraft violated Estonian airspace last fall, it was Italian, Finnish, and Swedish jets that turned them back. And, when Russian drones swarmed into Polish territory last year, it was a Dutch F-35 fighter jet that fired at them.
Expect to hear a lot more about how Europe and Canada are stepping up defense spending. The recent NATO annual report showed that all allies -- apart from Hungary and Slovakia -- have ramped up their outlays in 2025 compared to the previous year.
NATO In The Middle East?
One NATO diplomat noted that “Ankara will be a smile-fest, and it will be about one thing only – money, and there we are doing alright.”
But going forward, it will not only be about how much Europeans spend on their defenses. They must prove useful to Washington beyond their own continent.
While much focus has been on Spain’s refusal to let the United States use its bases in the Iran campaign, NATO has been keen to point out that most other allies have tried to be of assistance.
Most importantly Germany, Portugal, and the United Kingdom have allowed Washington to use bases in their countries. France has also green-lit US aircraft presence for missions supporting Gulf partners.
And Souda Bay on the Greek island of Crete, for example, was used by the USS Gerald R. Ford to resupply, refuel, and undergo repairs before the carrier moved on to Split in Croatia for further maintenance.
NATO will be keen to trumpet more of these examples going forward.
Although Trump did not make any concrete demands at the Washington meeting, NATO officials admit that individual allies will need to step up further.
Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson who now works as a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI), told RFE/RL that more concrete things could be afoot ahead of or during the Ankara gathering.
“While there is no discussion about a NATO mission at this stage, Rutte is playing a key role behind the scenes in coordinating with British Premier [Keir] Starmer and French President [Emmanuel] Macron, putting together a coalition of the willing to secure the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities cease and to conduct military prudent planning,” she said.
“Allies could also look at ways to put stabilization of the Middle East on the agenda of the NATO summit in Ankara in July, inviting Ukraine and partners from the Gulf and the Indo-Pacific, many of whom are already involved in the emerging coalition of the willing.”
What Now For Ukraine?
Then there is the issue of Ukraine, which many European NATO allies fear will be forgotten amid the Iran war.
“We should have said ‘help us on Ukraine and we will help on Iran,’” one European diplomat told RFE/RL on condition of anonymity, adding that “we missed a trick there.”
There is still a fear that the US might withdraw crucial intelligence sharing In this area, but also that air defenses Kyiv desperately needs will go elsewhere if there is a resumption of warfare in the Middle East.
Linas Kojala, head of Geopolitics and Security Studies Center in Vilnius, told RFE/RL that this is very much the balancing act Rutte will need to perform as the Ankara summit approaches, with the shadow of Moscow very much hanging over the alliance’s eastern members.
“Rutte understands perfectly well that Europe cannot be secure without the US playing an essential role, at least in the near future,” he said. “It is not simply a question of what the US would do if Article 5 were invoked, but of keeping the US as an essential component of deterrence, starting at the strategic level and going down to conventional capabilities. For the frontline states, that is existential, so tit-for-tat escalation in rhetoric is not a pathway forward.”
Looking Ahead
EU ambassadors are due to meet in Brussels to approve a new mission to Armenia that will be officially endorsed by the bloc’s foreign ministers a week later.
The mission, which starts later this year and includes up to 100 EU nationals, will mainly help Yerevan to deal with foreign interference, such as various hybrid threats coming from Russia.
That's all for this week!
Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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