Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two issues: sanctioning Russia's military industry and Canada’s "associate membership" of the EU.
Briefing #1: New Sanctions Targeting The Russian Military, While Oligarchs Are Removed From Lists
What You Need To Know: European Union ambassadors on September 16 had an initial discussion on a new Russian sanctions proposal with the view to adopt the package when the bloc’s foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg on October 12. Unlike the previous 21 rounds since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Brussels working method appears to have changed a little when it comes to punitive measures on the Kremlin. There are no sectoral sanctions proposals this time, which make some European officials point out that this in fact isn’t another “proper round” of sanctions.
The reason for the lack of sectoral sanctions is obvious given the much-publicized struggle EU member states had in adopting the 21st package over the summer. Then headline-grabbing plans to ban the import of Russian fish and to bar Russian ex-combatants from entering the Schengen zone were shot down by some EU capitals. The negotiations instead turned into attempts, notably by Austria and Greece, to water down already agreed sanctions.
Deep Background: So, while the appetite to find new areas of the Russian economy to target seem to have diminished, the new tactics are to add more names to the EU's already extensive asset-freeze and visa-ban blacklist every month from now on. The current list includes nearly 3,000 individual and entities and the EU’s diplomatic corps, the European External Action Service (EEAS), has now sent a proposal to target a further 827 entities and 744 individuals -- a record number for the EU for a single proposal if it passes via the required unanimity. What is significant about the document, seen by RFE/RL, is that all entries are connected to Russia’s arms industry. It notes specifically that the “entities appear in a list recently established by the Russian government, which identifies them as belonging to the Russian military-industrial complex.” The individuals proposed for sanctions are exclusively general directors, deputy directors, chief engineers, or occupy similarly high-level positions within the entities. Most of the firms deal with missile systems, aerospace, and naval and submarine construction even though there are plenty of companies involved in seemingly dual-use goods such as electronics, semiconductors, radars, navigation equipment, batteries, and even clothing for the armed forces.
Drilling Down:
- Sevmash, one of Russia’s most important naval shipbuilding enterprises, notably for submarines, is included, as is Zvezdochka, which mainly specializes in naval repairs and works with the St. Petersburg Admiralty shipyards.
- Other entities include KBM, a Russian joint-stock company involved in military design, and KT Unmanned Systems, a major drone supplier to the armed forces in the country.
- Interestingly, there aren’t any significant political personalities included, which should pave the way for the bloc to approve the list without any major hiccups in the coming weeks.
- Part of this “safer approach,” as one EU diplomat put it to RFE/RL, is due to a parallel process that the EU ambassadors recently were involved in -- renewing the current blacklist, which is proving trickier than first expected.
- While Slovakia again wants to get oligarchs Alisher Usmanov and Mikheil Fridman off the list in order to give its green light to the extension by six months rather than the 12 months without any “political de-listings” as the other member states initially were pushing for, the negotiations have now become increasingly more complicated.
- First, France indicated that they also wanted to get Usmanov struck off the list, notably due to indications from Azerbaijan that they would release two French citizens imprisoned in the South Caucasus country if this went ahead.
- Then, Luxembourg indicated that Fridman also must be delisted if Usmanov is, while other EU capitals are adamant that they still won’t entertain the two being deleted. What seemed to first be a simple compromise -- no delistings for a simple half-a-year rollover as per usual -- has now turned into a high-stakes who-blinks-first scenario in Brussels.
- This resulted in EU member states prolonging the package by just seven days, from the deadline of September 15, to a new one on September 22, to give themselves more time to find a way out
- On September 21, there first appeared to be consensus on delisting the pair and that the next extension would first come in September 2029
- But Latvia, mindful of how a delisting of especially Usmanov would impact its general elections on October 3, paused any decision with the future of the entire blacklist now up in the air.
Briefing #2: Canada's Dalliance With The EU
What You Need To Know: When the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her annual State of the European Union (SOTEU) speech on September 16 there was precious little on enlargement -- perhaps a fair reflection that the expansion of the bloc isn’t happening anytime soon.
The speech came at the same time as it became clear that the new-member front-runner Montenegro won’t be closing negotiations on any policy chapter this month. With 15 such chapters to go, it was initially slated to conclude a further four in September, then perhaps a few more before both Croatia and the Netherlands, for various reasons, signaled that they weren’t ready to give the go-ahead right then. Podgorica’s goal of concluding talks by the end of this year now looks like a tall order indeed.
So, what did the speech contain that was enlargement-related? Strictly speaking, nothing new on the current EU hopefuls in the western Balkans and in the bloc’s eastern neighborhood. But there were plenty of headlines about Canada getting “associate membership” of the European Union, which sounded like some sort of invitation for Ottawa to join even though it wasn’t quite like that.
Deep Background: It is worth pointing out that there isn’t such a thing as an “associated membership” of the EU -- although, the bloc hasn't ruled out that it might become something in the future. As with many things in Brussels, it starts as an idea that either takes shape and becomes something completely new or it is one of so many other test balloons that get released but then quickly shot down or simply fail to truly take off. The fact that most EU capitals were caught off guard to the announcement is not a good sign, given that it is they that ultimately decide on any new member, associate or not. Not even Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking a day later in the European Parliament plenary in Strasbourg, fully bought into the associate membership idea, although he didn’t dismiss it either. But equally, the fact that Australia quickly signaled that they potentially were interested in something similar to Canada tells you that there might be some developments in this field after all. EU leaders will likely discuss the issue when they meet in Brussels on October 15-16, although nothing is expected to be decided there.
So what are the issues? Firstly, can a country that geographically isn’t European become a member of the European Union? Potentially, yes. The term “European” here might not strictly be a geographical one, but a cultural/sociological one. European diplomats are only half joking when they point out as proof that everything is possible that Australia for years has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest -- a much loved and equally ridiculed annual music competition that has nothing to do with the EU.
More seriously, Cyprus, which became a full EU member in 2004, is geographically in Western Asia even though culturally, politically, and historically it is considered “European.” And geographically speaking, the EU is already stretching to quite a few other continents. Think of the Spanish autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa or the Canary Islands and Portugal’s Azores and Madeira, which are all off the African coast. Then there is French Guiana in South America, Guadeloupe and Martinique in the Caribbean, and Reunion and Mayotte in the Indian Ocean -- all applying EU laws and using the euro. Carney himself noted in his Strasbourg speech that his country has a 3,000-kilometer maritime border with Denmark, alluding of course to the Danish North Atlantic territory Greenland, which itself used to be part of the European Communities, an EU precedent, before it left back in 1985. So, any type of EU membership for Canada wouldn’t be immediately ruled out on geographical grounds.
Drilling Down:
- So what then can an associate membership potentially be and offer? German Chancellor Friedrich Merz first floated an “associate membership” idea last year when it came to Ukraine. It was quickly rejected by both Kyiv and other members of the bloc but would have essentially meant that Ukraine would get access to institutions and ministers at council meetings, members of the European Parliament, and would have their own European commissioner, but they would not be able to vote and Ukraine would also just have access to parts of the EU budget.
- This whole idea was offered to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a potentially face-saving compromise when it became clear that his ambitious push for Ukraine to become a full EU member by 2027 just wouldn’t happen. So, it is unlikely that this is what Canada is seeking.
- It is also unlikely that Ottawa would be interested in the association agreements that the EU struck with bloc hopefuls back in the 2010s such as Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine -- well before they actually became full-fledged EU candidate countries.
- These deals included a free-trade pact but also an integration model designed to prepare these countries for potential EU membership, requiring them to adopt vast amounts of EU law into their domestic legislation. If this would be applied to Canada, it would suddenly become a rule-taker, something that would be hard to accept for a country that for centuries has designed its own laws.
- That would also rule out something similar to membership in the European Economic Area (EEA) where rich non-EU European countries such as Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway find themselves. While not participating in the bloc’s foreign policy nor the common fishery and agricultural policies, they are part of the Schengen zone that embraces the so-called “four freedoms” of unrestricted movement of people, goods, services, and capital, but without any voting rights in these fields.
- Instead, what remains is some sort of update to the EU–Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which was signed in 2016. The deal to remove nearly all tariffs between Brussels and Ottawa is provisionally applied but the fact that 10 EU member states still haven't ratified it a decade after its signature tells you something about the multiple issues in getting any deal even with a close ally like Canada through the various parliaments in the bloc.
- In the end, it can likely be upgraded without too much fuss and potentially with member states turning to their respective parliaments to add something on more cooperation in the fields of AI, space and digital services, or even Canadian participation in the EU’s student exchange Erasmus. But to go much further would not work, neither for the EU, nor for Canada.
Looking Ahead
There will be much attention on New York this week and the United Nations General Assembly in which most of the world leaders are expected. Perhaps the most important bilateral meeting will be between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Zelenskyy, who will try to secure more American aid to bolster Ukrainian air defenses.
That's all for this week!
Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
