PRT @KevinRothrock: Ukraine’s interior ministry wants to “legalize” Pravyi Sektor by incorporating it into the police force. Good God.
— Glenn Kates (@gkates) August 18, 2014
PRT @KevinRothrock: Ukraine’s interior ministry wants to “legalize” Pravyi Sektor by incorporating it into the police force. Good God.
— Glenn Kates (@gkates) August 18, 2014
Regular Power Vertical Podcast guest Mark Galeotti has been writing for Business New Europe on the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. He thinks it's unlikely, but says there is plenty more Moscow can do to keep making life difficult for Kyiv:
British journalists on the ground saw a force of 23 armored personnel carriers (APCs) and their logistical support vehicles cross the Ukrainian border near the M4 highway which leads to rebel-held Lugansk and Donetsk. This is not the stuff invasions are made of. Russian mechanized forces blend tanks, infantry in APCs, artillery and air-defense elements to combine offensive punch and defensive strength. On their own, APCs are vulnerable, little more than lightly-armored trucks.
If the Russians ever come genuinely to invade, then it will come as a thunderbolt, with massed airstrikes and artillery bombardments intended to shatter the command structures, supply lines, morale and cohesion of the Ukrainian forces. Moscow would use its overwhelming air superiority to strike deep into Ukraine, not least to prevent quick reinforcement of the frontline forces, cratering runways to prevent aircraft taking off and landing, blasting bridges and ripping railway lines. Meanwhile, its special forces, the infamous Spetsnaz, would spread chaos as they have been trained to do, with sabotage, assassination and misdirection, supported by a massive cyberattack intended to shut down Ukrainian communications.
The reason for this “shock and awe” approach is not only because it is envisaged by Russian doctrine, but also reflects the way that Russia’s tactical advantage has steadily been eroded over recent months. August is one of the ideal times for Russia to launch military adventures, because its spring cohort of conscripts are now fully trained, fit and deployed to their units, but not yet so close to demobilization that discipline and readiness have begun to suffer.
However, while Russia still has perhaps 40,000 troops on the border, Ukraine’s security forces have regained much of their operational capacity after the near-crippling collapse of the chain of command following the fall of Yanukovych. Three mobilizations have seen reservists called back into the ranks, and nationalists have been encouraged to volunteer for National Guard, a force which has born the brunt of much recent fighting.
While the National Guards — who range from convinced patriots through to avowed neo-Nazis — have in the main received only the most basic of training and in many cases suffer from problems with discipline and restraint, nonetheless they represent an extra force of some 35,000 fighters. Furthermore, the country has 77,000 regular troops and 35,000 Interior Ministry security troops.
In this context, should Moscow be contemplating direct military intervention, then unless it is willing to strip forces from its other commands and borders—something which would be expensive and impossible to conceal from spy satellites and social media photographers alike—it would have to rely on the ‘force multipliers’ of technological superiority, surprise and disruption to have any hope of victory.
[...]
Indeed, behind the rattling sabers, the Russians appear to have stepped up their efforts to reach some diplomatic resolution. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met his Ukrainian counterpart Pavlo Klimkin in Berlin on August 17, following a meeting between presidential chiefs of staff Sergei Ivanov and Borys Lozhkin. Ivanov is a close Putin ally and generally considered a hawk, so his participation was especially significant.
Rather than gearing up for an invasion, Moscow is hoping rather to be able to negotiate its way to some face-saving formula which would allow Putin to abandon the increasingly-expensive political liability that is Novorossiya while claiming it as a success.
And that Russian “invasion force”? That was probably just one more consignment of military materiel intended to help the rebels hold the line long enough for Putin to get his deal. After all, according to Aleksandr Zakharchenko, new head of the Donetsk People's Republic, they have already received at least 30 tanks and 120 APCs, and this is likely a distinct understatement.
But even if Russia does not plan or want an invasion, that hardly means it cannot continue to cause serious, even critical trouble for Ukraine. Indeed, even the falloff Lugansk and Donetsk, which would effectively end any coordinated insurrection, would not necessarily bring peace.
Read the entire article here
#Ukraine military confirms that separatists stronghold #Luhansk is almost entirely encircled - total cut off expected within 24h #ATO
— Volodymyr Solohub (@v_solohub) August 18, 2014
Ukrainian President Poroshenko invites you to follow him on Instagram. https://t.co/uHEAj6K9tC
— Tanya Lokot (@tanyalokot) August 18, 2014
Many #Luhansk refugees were burned alive after Grad rockets fired at their convoy, @bbcrussian reports. Gov't & rebels blaming each other
— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) August 18, 2014
Here's an update from RFE/RL's news desk concerning the deadly attack on a convoy carrying refugees:
A Ukrainian military spokesman says separatists fired missiles at a military convoy carrying refugees, killing many aboard, despite the trucks flying white flags.
Anatoly Proshin, spokesman for the North operational command, said the refugee convoy was hit by Grad missiles near the villages of Khyashchuvatye and Novosvitlivka in the Luhansk region on August 18.
Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in Kyiv that "many people were killed, among them women and children."
There are no details yet on the number of fatalities.
A rebel spokesman has denied the reports of the attack.
Konstantin Knyrik told Russia's Interfax news agency, "Such claims are pure propaganda."
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says agreements have been reached with Ukraine and the International Red Cross that clear the way for Russian humanitarian shipments into eastern Ukraine.
( Reuters, AFP)
You want to know what President Putin said on august 14th in Yalta, Crimea? Here you are (Kremlin translation) http://t.co/BMQx5fQrlp
— Daniel Sandford (@BBCDanielS) August 18, 2014