There is an interesting, potentially provocative, op-ed from Vladislav Inozemtsev in "The Moscow Times" today on how the economic fallout of the Ukraine crisis probably won't have that much of an impact on Russians, mainly because Russia is not a normal economy:
Many politicians sincerely believe that Russia's economy has virtually stopped growing, in light of current tensions between the West and Russia resulting from Russia's annexation of Crimea and the economic sanctions that followed.
They also believe that Russia's economy may face additional challenges due to new restrictions imposed — and that this will reduce the government's credibility and so create problems for President Vladimir Putin.
For better or for worse, nothing like this will happen. Russia today is a unique place where the rate of economic growth changes neither the behavior of elites nor the loyalty of the population. Upon a closer look, it is easy to realize why — but to do this one must forget how economies are supposed to work.
First, Russia is not an industrial, but rather a resource economy. The well-being of its citizens depends primarily on just one sector of the economy. Export duties on oil and gas, as well as federal mining tax contribute 49.4 percent of federal budget's revenues — although crude oil and natural gas production has not increased since the mid-2000s. In 2013 only 8 percent more oil was pumped in Russia than in 2006, and 1 percent less of gas.
Both the political situation's stability and the level of popular support for the government depend not on growth in the real sector but from the dynamics of personal incomes — and these hang not so much on development but on oil and gas.
Read the entire article here
Driving around in Rostov, the southern Russian city that borders Ukraine. Support for separatists high. pic.twitter.com/ttFe1jQNh8
— Olaf Koens (@obk) June 25, 2014
#Russia is happy in love with #Putin. 66% ppl want him to stay in power after 2018. It's 30% more than 1.5 year ago. http://t.co/I1pi9CsXMz
— Myroslava Petsa (@myroslavapetsa) June 25, 2014
The Moscow Times: Russia to reduce Ukrainian defense imports 95 percent by 2015 http://t.co/GnUEuGFTZ9
— Kyiv Post (@KyivPost) June 25, 2014
Many uncertainties in Russia. But 1 thing's certain: parliament will do as Putin asks it. Senators to revoke 'right' to send army to UKR
— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) June 25, 2014
Total unison in Russian senate so far on the "absolutely logical and timely" decision by Putin to forgo invasion option.
— Maria Antonova (@mashant) June 25, 2014
!!! BREAKING NEWS !!!
Russia's upper house of parliament has voted overwhelmingly to revoke the authorization for Russian military intervention in Ukraine, as requested by President Vladimir Putin.
Despite the supposed cease-fire, in Ukraine's restive Luhansk region, separatist rebels say they will continue their fight with Kyiv, with or without Russian help (Reuters video):
Such is the state of Russian democracy that everyone is trying to work out who the ONE person was who voted against today's motion in FedCou
— Daniel Sandford (@BBCDanielS) June 25, 2014