A strident Putin critic, Hermitage Capital Management founder Bill Browder, warned in Institutional Investor on Tuesday that "Putin will never back down," adding that "we should start preparing ourselves for a war in Europe." Browder was whistle-blowing Kremlin gadfly Sergei Magnitsky's employer before Magnitsky, a lawyer, was gunned down in broad daylight in the Russian capital:
Putin has never dealt with economic chaos before. Though some may argue that this will bring him to the table to negotiate with the West, in my opinion any negotiation would be seen as a sign of weakness and is therefore the last thing Putin would want to do.
Putin's only likely response to escalate in Ukraine and possibly open up new fronts in other countries where there are "Russians to protect." But doing so will only harden the sanctions, leading to further economic pain in Russia -- and further military adventures to distract Russia's people from that pain.
I cannot imagine a scenario in which there is any compromise, because for Putin compromise means being overthrown. Judging from all of his actions to date, he is ready to destroy his country for his own self-preservation.
We should start preparing ourselves for a war in Europe that may spread well beyond the borders of Ukraine. The only Western response to this has to be containment. This all may sound alarmist, but I've spent the past eight years in my own war with Putin, and I have a few insights about him that are worth knowing.
More on Lavrov's statements today:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused Ukraine of seeking territorial gains in fighting against pro-Russian rebels in order to improve Kyiv's leverage during a four-nation summit on February 11 in Minsk.
Lavrov told a news conference in Moscow that there has been "notable progress" in preparations for the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and French President Francois Hollande.
But he tried to turn the tables on Kyiv and Western governments that accuse separatists of seeking gains on the ground in what the United States has called a "Russian-backed offensive" in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, claiming it is Ukrainian forces that are trying to push forward.
He also said Ukraine must not demand control over its border with Russia in rebel-held areas as a precondition for any deal.
Poroshenko said in a statement earlier on February 11 that Ukraine demands "a cease-fire, the withdrawal of all foreign troops, and closure of the border."
The latest Daily Vertical, wherein @PowerVertical's Brian Whitmore asks what might be in store for Ukraine.
The head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, Oleksandr Turchynov, speaking today while visiting Ukrainian army positions near Mariupol:
"Units of the National Guard, with the special Azov battalion in the vanguard, have broken the defense of Russian terrorist groups and launched an offensive."
"We have pushed the frontier, the frontline, the contact line, the line of fighting by 20 kilometers away from our city, protecting it from artillery shelling."