Writing for Business New Europe, regular Power vertical Podcast contributor Mark Galeotti has been pondering the potential upside of Minsk II for Kyiv, suggesting that the controversial peace accord might actually buy Ukraine some time to counter the challenge posed by Russia and its proxies. Here are some things he thinks could work to the Ukrainian government's advantage:
The first is geopolitical. Kyiv has been assiduous in courting the West, but as a victim more than a partner. If the Ukrainians begin seriously to start tackling the fundamental economic, political and administrative challenges they face, while maintaining a strong but dignified stance towards Moscow, they may begin to gain serious credibility in the West. At present, they are, to be honest, viewed with more pity than respect.
The second is governance. Whatever the flaws of the actual vote, it is hard to question that most Crimeans genuinely did want to join Russia. This owes less to historical affinity than to a sense that Kyiv had failed them for more than two decades. If rump Ukraine can develop as a better-run, transparent, working liberal democracy and market economy, then the people of the south-east may well see their future in the west. Just ask the ethnic Russians of the Baltic states, who may grumble about “prejudice” against them, but have no desire to head to Russia instead.
Finally, Kyiv could use the time to prepare the ground militarily, too. One of many reasons for its lack of success in the war has been that its underfunded and undertrained army was still in many ways a shadow of its Soviet self, geared for a mass war in the west rather than counter-insurgency in the south-east. Over the coming months, even if Kyiv cannot afford to mobilize larger forces, it can at least retrain, reorganize and rearm for this mission.
Read the entire article here