After a June 14 phone call that focused on the new explosion of fighting in the Middle East, US President Donald Trump said on social media that Russian President Vladimir Putin “feels, as I do, this war in Israel-Iran should end.”
In his post about the conversation, Trump added that he told Putin that “his war should also end.”
Intentionally or not, that last comment seemed to point up Moscow’s hypocrisy: More than three years into an onslaught that has killed thousands of Ukrainian civilians, many of them in nighttime attacks hitting homes far from the front, Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned what it said were Israel’s “unprovoked military strikes” on “peaceful sleeping cities.”
The hostilities between Israel and Iran are unlikely to bring Moscow closer to ending its invasion of Ukraine, though, and there are several ways they could potentially play into Russia’s hands.
But in the end, they may not move the dial dramatically in a war that seems destined to continue for months or more.
Here’s a look at how the deadly flareup in the Middle East could affect the war in Ukraine.
Drones And Distractions
Like the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and the Gaza war that ensued, the fighting between Israel and Iran is drawing the attention of the West away from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine at an important time.
It comes as Trump, the United States, and the rest of the West consider whether to impose tough new sanctions on Moscow, which Kyiv and some European leaders say has zero interest in making peace and is trying to drag out the process while seeking to improve Russia’s position on the battlefield and beyond.
While decisions on sanctions and other matters related to the war in Ukraine could emerge from the three-day Group of Seven (G7) summit, which ends on June 17, the Israel-Iran conflict could elbow it aside.
Going forward, the situation in the Middle East could compete with the war in Ukraine when it comes to Western weapons, money, and other resources.
Western efforts to weaken Moscow’s war machine focus heavily on efforts to curb its oil revenues. So if oil prices rise substantially as a result of the fighting between Israel and Iran, it would be a setback for Kyiv and its backers.
These factors could add to the challenge for Ukraine on the battlefield, where Russian forces have been advancing -- albeit slowly and at an enormous cost in human lives -- and Kyiv has made few substantial gains since 2023.
The Kremlin may be hoping to reap multiple rewards from the Middle East violence.
“Aside from Iran itself, of course, the greatest military and political damage in this situation will probably be suffered by Ukraine,” Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, wrote in Rossiiskaya Gazeta, the official Russian government newspaper.
“A new war in the Middle East will not only distract the world's attention from [Russia’s invasion of Ukraine] but will also, apparently, contribute to the final reorientation of the United States to providing military assistance to Israel,” Pukhov predicted.
In addition, he wrote that the Israeli strikes on Iran would “undermine the validity of any criticism of Russian military actions in Ukraine” and that an increase in oil prices would “destroy the hopes of Ukraine and its Western European allies for a decrease in Russian oil revenues.”
On the other hand, supplies of the weapons that Russia uses against Ukraine -- namely, Iranian Shahed drones -- could be more directly affected.
But Russia now produces most of the drones derived from the Shahed at home and has “spun off more [and] more variations from the initial Iranian designs,” Hanna Notte, an expert on Russia and the Middle East, noted on X on June 14.
“I think the impact for Russia in Ukraine will be modest at best,” she wrote.
“Sure, they’ll happily buy what they could from Iran -- though obviously Iran is now going to be reserving its production for its own uses -- but they no longer need Iran quite to that same degree,” Russia analyst Mark Galeotti said on his podcast on June 15.
Off The Battlefield
Early on June 15, as Iran and Israel continued to exchange deadly strikes, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!"
His desire to get that done could, at least for now, take precedence over his efforts to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, which rages on months after his inauguration to a new term in January despite his claims that he could resolve it in a day or two.
He has voiced increasing frustration with Putin over Russia’s refusal to budge and its penchant for deadly attacks on civilians -- but has so far refrained from imposing new sanctions on Moscow.
An unofficial two-week deadline Trump set to determine whether Putin is engaging in a good-faith search for peace or “tapping us along” passed several days ago – and now the violence in the Middle East could potentially stay his hand further, particularly if he turns to the Kremlin for help brokering an Iran-Israel truce or an agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program.
Can Putin Be Helpful?
After an earlier phone call with Putin, on June 4, Trump wrote that Putin “could, perhaps, be helpful” in a push by the US president to reach a deal with Tehran to curb Iran’s nuclear activities.
In its readout of the June 14 call with Trump, the Kremlin said that Putin emphasized “the Russian side’s readiness to carry out possible mediation efforts.”
The next day, Trump told ABC News he “would be open to” Putin being a mediator, according to the network.
The desire for diplomatic cachet could cut both ways, of course: Putin’s push for a powerful role in the Middle East could potentially lead him to be more constructive on Ukraine.
But it seems unlikely that he would make substantial concessions -- and he might consider that any success in playing a strong part in dealing with the fighting between Israel and Iran would only strengthen his hand when it comes to Ukraine.
For Putin, “Ukraine remains the priority,” Notte wrote.
