PRISTINA -- Prime Minister Albin Kurti's ruling Self-Determination Movement (LVV) looks set to win the most votes in Kosovo's parliamentary elections, although it appears the party will fall short of a majority, opening the door to political instability at a crucial time for the country.
The Central Election Commission (CEC) on February 10 said that, with 93 percent of ballots counted, LVV had 41 percent of the vote, in line with opinion polls ahead of the election that indicated a result of under 50 percent.
It was followed by Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) with 22 percent, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) with 18 percent, and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) and partner NISMA with 7.6 percent.
The Serbian List had 4 percent. A special panel in Kosovo on December 25 overturned a decision by the election commission that had barred the country's largest ethnic-Serbian party from participating in the elections due to its strong links with Belgrade.
About 41 percent of more than 1.9 million eligible voters cast ballots for the 120-seat parliament, according to election officials.
The results could allow for the opposition to form a government in the small, pro-West Balkan nation, as well as shaping its relationship with the EU and the United States, Kosovo's two biggest sponsors.
"Unfortunately, due to the moment we are in and the unpredictability of the course of things, there is a possibility that the people will also feel consequences," Washington-based foreign policy expert Adrian Shtuni told RFE/RL's Kosovo service, noting the EU has blocked development funds to the country.
"Whoever forms the government must wake up and understand that we are facing a decisive moment for the future of Kosovo."
Although the overall outcome remained unclear, Kurti declared victory for his party and its partners, the Guxo Party and Alternativa, following the vote.
"The elections were free, democratic, and fair,” he told a Pristina news conference.
"I thank the voters of LVV and our winning coalition. We are in first place, and this is a confirmation of our good and progressive governance. Our winning coalition will form the new government," he said without providing his projected voting figures.
"We don't have the official results yet, but the preliminary ones show that even if the second and third place parties combine their votes, they still don't match [LVV]," he added.
Lumir Abdixhiku, leader of LDK -- a former ruling party -- said the group's total of around 18 percent was disappointing but that "it is an outcome we respect, and I take responsibility for this result." Nevertheless, he rejected the idea of him resigning as party chairman.
Official final results could be delayed as the CEC experienced intermittent difficulties with its website reporting figures. President Vjosa Osmani said she was confident that despite a "software failure," the integrity of the electoral process would be ensured.
Dritero Arifi, a political science professor at the University for Business and Technology (UBT) in Pristina, said Kurti could face a difficult task to form a government.
“Even though [LVV] is the winner, they suffered quite a decline [in support]," he told RFE/RL, referring to the party's showing of 50.28 percent in 2021.
"This shows the citizens' distrust toward the ruling party. There will be a major battle over how the government is formed."
He said it was not clear if Kurti will be able to quickly put together a coalition or if the country will suffer through "several months" of negotiations and uncertainty.
"There is a lot of uncertainty. [The LVV] is a party that does not shift from its initial positions and will have a hard time relinquishing power."
Some 1.97 million citizens were registered to vote in the country that has long been allied with the United States but which has frayed those ties with recent policies that Washington sees as fomenting tensions with its ethnic-Serb minority.
Kurti’s left-wing LVV was favored to win the election but was not seen able to garner enough votes to govern on its own. That left open the possibility the other three contenders could join ranks if Kurti fails to form a Cabinet.
An opposition coalition could alter Kosovo's relations with the West and potentially step up peace talks with rival Serbia. Kurti's opponents for the prime minister's post have expressed the need to maintain and deepen U.S. ties, insisting they are crucial for Kosovo's future.
Kurti has also stated his desires to remain closely tied to the United States, despite recent disagreements.
Pristina has sought to reestablish authority in northern Kosovo, where most of the ethnic Serbs live and have attempted to maintain parallel governance structures with Belgrade's support.
Kurti has insisted the actions were necessary to ensure the rule of law in the north and that they were in line with the country's constitution.
The elections could also shape relations with the European Union.
Kosovo’s EU application, submitted in 2022, has been stalled ever since, as it needs a consensus of support among the 27 members. The biggest hurdle is the five EU countries -- Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain -- that do not recognize Kosovo's independence.
Kosovo's relations with Washington and Brussels are centered around the EU-facilitated dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, which began in 2011 and aims to normalize relations between the two neighbors and rivals.
Kosovo was an autonomous region of Serbia until an armed uprising in 1998-99 by the ethnic Albanian majority population triggered a bloody crackdown by Belgrade. A NATO bombing campaign to force Serbia’s troops out of Kosovo ended the war.
Since Kosovo's 2008 declaration of independence from Belgrade, which Serbia and several other nations still reject, there have been ongoing tensions between the two neighboring countries.
A NATO-led KFOR protection force has been deployed in Kosovo since 1999 to help maintain the peace.
Adrian Shtuni, a Washington-based security expert, praised the smooth running of Kosovo's election and told RFE/RL it should stand as an example to other countries in the region, saying it reflects the "consolidation of democracy" in the country.
But he cautioned that the relatively low voter turnout stood as "a message to politicians in Kosovo [that] the people are tired of aggressive rhetoric and clashes."