Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.
I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm watching in the days ahead.
The Key Issue
The unrecognized Taliban government in Afghanistan said it wants to open a “new chapter” with the United States following Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election.
In a statement, the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry said it hoped the “upcoming U.S. administration will take realistic steps to foster tangible progress in the relationship between the two countries.”
During his first stint in power from 2017 to 2021, the Trump administration signed a deal with the Taliban that paved the way for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan.
The agreement ended America’s longest-ever war. But critics said the accord led to the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power.
During the campaign, Trump defended the 2020 accord as a “very good agreement.” But he blamed President Joe Biden for the deadly and chaotic U.S. military withdrawal in 2021.
Why It's Important: Trump’s return to the White House is likely to have repercussions for Afghanistan, where the world’s largest humanitarian crisis is unfolding.
The United States is the biggest donor of humanitarian aid to the country, having provided around $3 billion since the Taliban takeover in August 2021. There has been a major drop in donor funding over the past two years.
“The sharp decline in humanitarian funding seems likely to worsen under a Trump presidency,” said Graeme Smith, senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Hameed Hakimi of Chatham House, a London-based think tank, said Trump could place conditions on U.S. aid, a move that would “increase the financial and humanitarian vulnerability of the Afghan people.”
Experts said it is unlikely that the incoming Trump administration would reverse current U.S. policy by arming anti-Taliban groups inside Afghanistan or recognizing the Taliban’s government.
“The Republicans will do everything possible to keep Afghanistan out of the headlines,” said Smith.
What's Next: Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority for the Trump administration.
But a major attack on the United States or its allies emanating from Afghan soil could change that.
What To Keep An Eye On
An Indian diplomat traveled to Kabul for talks with senior Taliban officials on November 4-5.
The Taliban’s defense and foreign ministers held meetings with JP Singh, who oversees the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran division of India’s External Affairs Ministry.
“Both sides declared their common desire” to expand bilateral relations, mainly in humanitarian cooperation, said a statement by the Taliban’s Defense Ministry.
Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said the two sides also discussed “how the Chabahar Port can be used for imports and exports.”
Over the past two decades, India has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port and built a highway linking it to western Afghanistan.
In March, the Taliban announced that it would invest around $35 million in Chabahar Port, a move aimed at decreasing landlocked Afghanistan's dependence on neighboring Pakistan.
Relations between the Taliban and Pakistan, longtime allies, have deteriorated sharply in recent years.
Why It's Important: Singh’s visit to Afghanistan signals New Delhi’s interest in developing relations with the Taliban.
India was a key backer of the Western-backed Afghan government. But since the Taliban’s return to power, it has signaled a willingness to cooperate with the extremist group.
The Taliban’s tense relations with Pakistan has offered India an opportunity to boost its influence in Kabul.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
Until next time,
Abubakar Siddique
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