Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I'm drilling down on two issues: the Baltic states connecting to the continental electricity grid and the EU’s proposed new sanctions package.
Briefing #1: Baltic States To Join Europe's Electrical Grid
What You Need To Know: This coming weekend it will finally happen. The three Baltic states -- Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania -- will disconnect on February 8 from the IPS/UPS electricity transmission grid that links Russia, Belarus, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The following day, the three countries will join the synchronous grid of Continental Europe (also known as the UCTE grid), which includes most European countries, from Portugal in the west to Ukraine and Turkey in the east.
For the Baltic countries, this move, known as the "Baltic Synchro," is a historic moment. It means that they, not Moscow, will be able to better manage and control their own electricity supplies. Diplomats from the Baltic region that I have spoken to see the move as shaking off the last vestiges of the Soviet era, comparing it to when Soviet troops left the countries in the 1990s.
Envisaged to initially happen at the end of 2025, the "Baltic Synchro" was brought forward by nearly 11 months, in large part due the war in Ukraine and the Baltic countries' desire to become completely independent from potential Russian energy blackmail.
Deep Background: It has been a long journey. The Baltic countries first signaled their readiness to join the continental grid back in 2007 and then applied in 2018. Last year, they informed Moscow and Minsk that they would leave the Brell agreement that has kept them in IPS/UPS.
In the background, they have been preparing for a while. The synchronization is not just a technical process, it's a legal one as well with plenty of paperwork and negotiations. "It's not too dissimilar from joining the euro zone or [the visa-free] Schengen [zone]," one Baltic diplomat told me.
The Baltic countries have been preparing their infrastructure as well, to the tune of 1.6 billion euros ($1.64 billion), 75 percent of which comes from the EU budget. This money was needed to build overhead power lines, boost frequency management, enhance and build out electricity substations, and upgrade IT systems.
The main investment has been the connection of the Baltic power system to the continental grid. So far, there is only one interconnection -- the LitPol Link, between Lithuania and Poland. Another link between the countries, named Harmony, is expected to be ready in 2030-31.
Drilling Down
- The Baltic states are connected to Finland and Sweden via links such as Estlink 1&2 and Nordbalt. But while these links are vital for energy import and export, they cannot be used for so-called "frequency control" and "balancing services," key components of managing a power grid. There is also another issue here: Sweden, Finland, Norway, as well as eastern areas of Denmark, are not part of the continental grid but the Nordic one.
- Estonia initially pushed to synchronize with the Nordic system, but the three countries eventually opted for the continental connection.
- The fact that there is just one interconnector, the LitPol Link, for the next few years with the continental grid could be problematic. In between disconnecting from the IPS/UPS grid on February 8 and synchronizing with the continental grid on February 9, the Baltics will be in so-called "island mode." There will probably not be any electricity cuts, but the challenge will be to manage the frequencies when not connected to a particular grid.
- A diplomat with insight into the process, who wished to remain anonymous, told me that he will be worried on February 8 and that "the run-up is really tense." And with just one interconnector to the continent, "island mode" could happen more often in the case of repairs or bad weather.
- The Baltic countries could also be vulnerable to so-called hybrid attacks. It has not gone unnoticed that several undersea Baltic pipelines and cables have been severed or damaged in the last year, with suspicion that Russia is responsible. To some degree, this has also vindicated the decision to connect the grids via land to Poland rather than undersea.
- Baltic diplomats I have spoken to say they are sure that the recent incidents at sea are related to the impending "Baltic Synchro." One told me that "there is an obvious link to what is happening in the Baltic Sea, especially if you look at intent, capacity, capabilities, and track record." Another diplomat said that "the Russians are annoyed. I can only speculate but this is the dismantling of the infrastructure of the old empire. But there is no way back, desynchronization will have to happen."
- So far, Baltic diplomats have said that Russia and Belarus have been professional and played by the rules when it comes to leaving the Brell agreement. But even if nothing untoward happens at the weekend, there are still fears that the Kremlin could shift gears and launch various "hybrid" measures in the future.
- Regardless, the Baltic countries will remain vulnerable. There are thousands of kilometers of overhead power lines, hundreds of substations, and it is physically impossible to protect everything. Although, as one Baltic diplomat optimistically said, there are enough connections and reserves to "operate in island mode without major inconvenience."
Briefing #2: New EU Proposed Sanctions To Target Shadow Fleet, LNG
What You Need To Know: The European Commission last week sent out to EU member states its proposal for the next round of sanctions on Russia and Belarus, with a goal to have the package unanimously agreed by the time of the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February. The proposal, seen by RFE/RL, would mean more sanctions targeting Russian aluminum, media, and the so-called "shadow fleet" but would lack any more meaningful restrictions on Russian energy. Brussels is clearly mindful that some member states are wary about soaring energy prices in the bloc.
This proposed round of sanctions, the 16th in three years, comes just a week after Hungary threatened to veto the six-month rollover of the previous packages. Budapest was expressing annoyance that Russian gas to the EU via Ukraine was halted at the new year. While not being able to reverse that decision, Budapest finally gave its green light to the rollover ahead of the January 31 deadline. That came after the bloc agreed on a joint statement in which the European Commission would get assurances from Kyiv regarding the continuation of oil supplies via pipeline to the EU.
It is in this context that the European Commission decided not to propose fresh sanctions on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), despite several EU member states, notably in the Nordic-Baltic region, calling for it.
Moscow's LNG exports to the bloc skyrocketed last year, with 9 percent of Germany's gas imports coming from Russia. Instead, there will just be minor measures such as the banning of Russian LNG going to EU terminals not connected to the bloc's gas system and prohibiting the temporary storage of Russian crude oil and petroleum products within the EU.
Deep Background: The headline-grabbing stuff in this round of proposed sanctions is an EU broadcast ban on TASS, Russia's state news agency. Similarly to the previous rounds of sanctions against RT and RIA Novosti, this means that journalists from these media organizations can still operate in the EU, but you won't be able to access their content on EU territory. Other Russian media outlets such as Zvezda, Lenta.ru, and RuBaltic will also be targeted.
Then there is the suggested import ban on primary aluminum, the pure form of the metal obtained without recycling or reprocessing, from Russia. Given that import of other types of aluminum are already banned, Brussels is aiming to now have a blanket prohibition of Russian aluminum products entering the bloc. The proposed sanctions also include export bans from the EU to Russia on gaming controllers and consoles, given fears in the EU that their components are being used to build drones.
Drilling Down
- Russia's "shadow fleet" -- the network of tankers and other vessels used by Russia to evade Western oil sanctions -- will also be targeted, according to the proposal. So far, the EU has drawn up a list of 79 vessels that can't dock or receive any shipping services in the EU. Under the proposal, an additional 74 vessels would be added -- although, curiously, this does not include the vessels involved in recent incidents in the Baltic Sea that damaged undersea infrastructure.
- Under the proposal, there would be more bans on exporting dual-use goods to companies based in China, India, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan, among others. Brussels suspects these firms of reexporting such dual-use goods to Russia.
- Seventeen regional Russian banks would also be subject to being locked out of SWIFT, the global financial message system, for cross-border money transfers, joining most of the big Russian banks that have already been "de-SWIFTED." Interestingly, though perhaps not surprisingly, Gazprombank, which many EU countries have dealings with, has not yet met this fate.
- According to the sanctions proposal, an additional 35 people would be slapped with asset freezes and visa bans. They are mainly directors of military companies and politicians Russia has installed in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine. A few names do stick out. One is Kristina Potupchik, a famous Russian blogger, who the EU claims "disseminates misinformation on the war in Ukraine" and the TV presenter Yulia Baranovskaya, who, according to the document seen by RFE/RL, stands accused of "publicly promoting Russian war crimes such as the forced deportation of Ukrainian children." Aleksandr Stuglev, the organizer of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, is also proposed for blacklisting.
- Lastly, new sanctions on Belarus have been proposed. The sanctions would largely mean EU export bans on electronic devices, conductors, and telecommunications, navigation, and aviation equipment, as well as on various types of sensors and lasers.
Looking Ahead
Poland currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union and, on February 6-7, the entire European Commission will travel to the northern Polish city of Gdansk to meet the Polish government. Expect that the Polish hosts will be flashing their credentials as one of the bloc's preeminent members, especially now that both France and Germany are struggling with various domestic issues. There will likely be plenty of references to Solidarity, as Gdansk is the birthplace of the trade union that was pivotal in the country's transition from communism to democracy.
That's all for this week! Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on Twitter @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition subscribe here.
