As exiled Belarusians gather at political rallies in Warsaw, Vilnius, and other cities this weekend, many have packed masks to conceal their identities because they know the authorities back home could target their families.
Belarus is stepping up attacks on the opposition at home and abroad, five years after brutally crushing an unprecedented wave of mass protests against a stolen election.
"Belarus was taken hostage," exiled opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya said on August 7 at an online briefing held by the Center for European Policy Analysis, a Washington-based think-tank.
"Ahead of the anniversary, the crackdown has only intensified," she added. "The regime isn't just punishing dissent. It's trying actually to erase the memory of 2020."
That year, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets after the authorities announced that Aleksandr Lukashenko had been re-elected president. It was widely believed by Belarusians, Western governments, and international human rights organizations that the results were blatantly falsified.
For the first time since Lukashenko took office in 1994, protests against him were large-scale, nationwide, and enduring. But they were met with beatings, arrests, and torture. Several people were killed.
Hundreds of thousands fled the country, including Tsikhanouskaya. She was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for "treason with the aim of seizing power."
Cash In An Envelope
Ahead of the fifth anniversary of the election, the campaign against her has continued.
On August 6, Belarusian state TV aired a report that it said showed an official giving her an envelope containing $15,000 and that she had "asked for" the money.
Tsikhanouskaya denies asking for money. She said she opened the envelope only now, after seeing the report, and saw that it contained 15,000 euros.
"I was under tremendous emotional pressure at the time. I wasn't ready for this and didn't know how to behave in such situations. I didn't tell anyone about that ill-fated envelope because I was ashamed that I had it," she told pro-opposition news website Zerkalo.
Tsikhanouskaya has previously said the authorities forced her to leave the country by making threats relating to her children.
But the repression goes well beyond Tsikhanouskaya. An Amnesty International report this week said there are still more than 1,100 political prisoners in Belarus.
Exiled Belarusian human rights group, Vyasna (Spring), says that since 2020 some 330 political prisoners have been released early by the Belarusian authorities.
Tsikhanouski Released But Others Arrested
The authorities, however, imprison more people than they release. Vyasna reported that in June, while 14 political prisoners were pardoned, 29 others were newly jailed.
Perhaps the most prominent release was that of Tsikhanouskaya's husband, Syarhey Tsikhanouski. He was arrested after attracting a mass following and announcing he would run for president in 2020. His wife subsequently took up the mantle.
Speaking to RFE/RL in Vilnius, Lithuania, after his release, he voiced concern over the state of the beleaguered opposition movement that once filled streets and squares across Belarus.
"During my last days of freedom in 2020, people were lining up for hours to sign petitions. I felt like I had wings," he said.
"Now I came out with the same energy and determination, but I see that many Belarusians abroad are tired. They've spent five years surviving, working multiple jobs. I understand, but for those of us coming out of prison, it's painful to feel that the fire has gone out."
One of his first moves shortly after his release on June 21 was to appeal to supporters for donations to a fund to support former political prisoners and exiled Belarusians. Tsikhanouski envisioned raising 200,000 euros, but the appeal sparked criticism and an underwhelming response.
Amnesty International noted that restrictions on renewing Belarusian documents had left some exiles in legal limbo, unable to apply for residency documents in Poland, where many took refuge.
Some of those who fled after being charged with minor offenses have considered returning to Belarus on the basis that the statute of limitations on those offenses no longer applies. But they still risk arrest if they do so.
"They find something new to charge you with," one man, who was forced to flee in October 2020, told RFE/RL in July.
"They'll find something to jail you for: subscribing to 'extremist' online media, making a donation (to a banned group), or clicking ‘like' somewhere," he added.
Other exiled Belarusians voiced similar concerns.
In a joint statement, the governments of Britin, Australia, and Canada on August 9 condemned the latest actions of the Belarus government.
"We — Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom — stand united in condemning the ongoing repression and human rights violations," the three countries said.
"Thousands have been unjustly detained, subjected to torture, or forced into exile. These actions represent a flagrant breach of Belarus' international law obligations and are a serious violation of human rights and fundamental freedoms," the statement added, calling on Belarusian leaders "to end their campaign of repression."
A Changed Landscape
Anyone returning to Belarus would find a dramatically altered society from the one they left five years ago. Lawtrend, a Belarusian monitoring group that also operates in exile, says nearly 2,000 civil society groups -- NGOs, labor unions, foundations, and associations -- have been shut down since 2020.
More than 40 media outlets have been recognized as "extremist formations," effectively criminalizing their activity in Belarus.
This includes RFE/RL, whose Minsk offices were raided and sealed in July 2021.
Some 15 journalists associated with RFE/RL's Belarus Service have been targeted with special criminal cases in absentia, while their relatives have been subjected to intimidation.
In July 2024, Yury Drakakhrust, a journalist and analyst for the Belarus Service based in Prague, was sentenced in absentia to 10 years in prison by Belarusian authorities on false charges.
In an article for RFE/RL's Russian Service on August 7, he wrote that the current state of the Belarusian opposition was "depressing."
"Tsikhanouskaya was accepted by senior Western officials. But this happened when memories were fresh of Minsk streets filled with protesters. But it's been a long time since there was even a shadow of protest on the streets of Minsk. Tsikhanouskaya no longer meets with such senior officials as she used to," he wrote.
Despite this gloomy view, the opposition is trying to rally its forces with the protests at cities across Europe and North America this weekend.
Tsikhanouskaya said Belarus could now be at a crossroads, with future developments depending on a resolution to the war in Ukraine, where Lukashenko has firmly aligned himself with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"If peace is made on Ukraine's terms, it could weaken Putin and Lukashenko with him. That could be our moment to push for change," she said.
"But if the deal favors Putin, Belarus risks becoming a consolation prize, meaning losing our sovereignty for decades to come."
