As opposition-minded Belarusians will tell you, the country's presidential election on January 26 isn't a real election. Independent media has been gutted, or forced abroad, there are no credible opposition candidates, and the vote is merely an exercise in consolidating President Alyaksandr Lukashenka's grip on power. It will be anything other than free or fair.
After two politicians were denied registration, there are only five candidates running, including Lukashenka, who has been in power since 1994. Of those, three represent pro-government parties, and one, Hanna Kanapatskaya, is formally independent but accused by many in the opposition of being a stooge for the regime.
What About Belarus's Opposition?
For the last presidential election in 2020, something happened that hadn't been seen in years. After several opposition leaders were jailed before the election campaign, another leader, Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, emerged. And, on a fair playing field, she was thought to have a decent chance of winning.
In the end, in an election that the international community decried as fraudulent, Tsikhanouskaya lost. But her campaign gained remarkable traction, revitalizing the ailing Belarusian opposition and bringing tens of thousands of people out on the streets to protest the election result.
The protests were brutally broken up. Thousands of people were arrested by security forces, with many claiming to have been mistreated or tortured in custody. Tsikhanouskaya was forced to flee and continue her work from Lithuania.
Now, facing certain arrest if she returns to Belarus, Tsikhanouskaya's hands are tied. She has urged citizens to refrain from protesting, fearing there will be a repeat of the crackdown. Instead, she has called on Belarusians to vote "Against All" on their ballots or abstain completely.
Brutal Crackdown Still Casts A Long Shadow
The crackdown has had a chilling effect on the Belarusian opposition, extinguishing even the faintest hopes for the country's liberalization.
Many opposition protesters fled the country or were jailed. Independent media, including RFE/RL, was either closed down, blocked, or forced to operate from abroad. According to monitoring conducted by the Belarus-based watchdog Lawtrend, 1,161 NGOS have been forced to close since 2020.
Belarus currently has around 1,300 political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize-winning activist Ales Byalyatski and three journalists who have worked for RFE/RL's Belarus Service. Held in deplorable conditions, they are denied access to medical care or contact with their relatives.
Ahead of the election, pressure on the opposition has grown. The authorities carried out over 100 raids in November 2024 connected to the opposition Coordination Council. Twenty academics, journalists, and activists were found guilty of alleged ties to Tsikhanouskaya and sentenced in absentia.
The Government Is Nervous
The government is undoubtedly concerned about a repeat of the 2020 protests, and, in its messaging, is pushing the narrative that the election is a fait accompli rather than a high-stakes referendum on Lukashenka's popularity.
Instead of hard politics, state media and pro-government social-media accounts often play up Lukashenka's supposed everyman qualities, running footage of the president playing ice hockey or chopping wood.
Even Lukashenka doesn't seem to think the presidential election is that important. In one pro-government video on TikTok -- where the regime is cautiously attempting to engage young people -- Lukashenka does mention the election but says bluntly, "There is no need to engage."
Still, the authorities are taking precautions, also running programs on state TV about the extensive security measures in place for the vote in an attempt to keep young protesters at home. In the event of mass protests, Lukashenka has also threatened to shut down the Internet, and the authorities have banned people from taking photos of completed ballot papers as they were widely used in 2020 by citizens to highlight fraud.
This year, there will also be no polling stations abroad, likely an attempt to silence the largely anti-Lukashenka diaspora.
What Can The West Do?
On January 17, then-U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Belarus's "repressive environment" prevents a legitimate democratic presidential election. And on January 22, the European Parliament adopted a resolution condemning the election as a sham. Such statements, however, are unlikely to move the needle in Belarus and of little consequence for Lukashenka.
Over the past few decades, the Belarusian leader has occasionally made overtures to the West, with diplomats and pundits periodically talking about Belarus breaking ties with its main ally Russia and "coming in from the cold."
Those days are long gone. Since 2020, Minsk has deepened its ties with Moscow, notably in the military sphere by providing its territory for Russian attacks on Ukraine and hosting joint military drills.
While both the EU and U.S. have imposed sanctions on Belarus, including asset freezes, travel bans, and trade restrictions, the Belarusian economy has weathered the storm, helped along by Russian support, including cheap gas, debt relief, and priority access to the Russian market.
Is Lukashenka On His Way Out?
The wild card here is Lukashenka himself. Now 70, with persistent rumors about his ill health, he has spoken in recent months about the need for a generational change in Belarusian politics, leading to conjecture that this could be his last presidential term.
The $64,000 question is who -- or what -- next. There has been speculation about one of Lukashenka's sons taking the reins, notably his youngest, Mikalay, known as Kolya, who is just 20. There has also been talk of Lukashenka giving more power to the Security Council or the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, an advisory body chaired by Lukashenka that was elevated to a constitutional body in 2022.
Whatever the arrangement, unless there is a dramatic change of leadership in Russia, Minsk will likely continue to deepen its ties with Moscow, a one-sided arrangement that could see Belarus increasingly become just a vassal of the Russian state.
