To some, Calin Georgescu is a dangerous populist; to others, he is a fearless champion of the anti-establishment cause. His disqualification from the May 4 presidential election by Romania’s electoral commission has only deepened this divide, fueling discontent and uncertainty about the country’s political future.
Deep Divisions
The crisis has been brewing for a while and Georgescu isn't the first far-right candidate who has been prevented from running in a Romanian election. In October 2024, the court banned Diana Iovanovici Sosoaca, a pro-Russian, anti-EU, far-right candidate, from running in the presidential election, saying that her public statements and conduct "systematically" violated the country's constitutional foundation -- and the country's membership in Euro-Atlantic structures.
That decision was contentious -- even criticized by some who found Iovanovici Sosoaca's views abhorrent -- and also a harbinger of what was to come. After Georgescu surprise victory in the first round of the presidential election in November last year, the constitutional court cancelled the runoff, thrusting the country into further crisis.
The court justified this ruling by pointing to claims of Russian meddling in the election process. According to Romanian intelligence reports, foreign actors had manipulated social-media platforms, especially TikTok, to benefit Georgescu, who is critical of NATO and opposes Romanian support for Ukraine against Russia's invasion. Intelligence reports indicated that the campaign was likely orchestrated by Russia, though Moscow denied any involvement.
The court's decision to annul Georgescu's candidacy was deeply controversial. According to a survey by FlashData, 46 percent of Romanians believed that the annulment was "an unjustified action" and 41 percent said that it was "a necessary action to ensure the fairness of the electoral process."
What Happens If Georgescu Doesn't Run?
Georgescu has appealed the decision and Romania’s Constitutional Court will meet on March 11 to discuss his appeal. Given that the commission’s ruling was based on the court's prior annulment of the second round of the presidential election, it is almost certain that the disqualification will stand.
One possibility is that Georgescu's supporters could rally behind another candidate, such as George Simion, the leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Union Of Romanians (AUR) party. While Simion has publicly stated he does not intend to run in the election, some analysts have suggested that he could be persuaded.
Alternatively, Georgescu himself could endorse a replacement candidate from within nationalist circles. Nationalist parties collectively secured around 25-30 percent of the vote in Romania's December 2024 parliamentary elections, reflecting growing public frustration with mainstream political forces.
Romania's Leadership Vacuum
While the crisis has assumed an international dimension -- even getting a mention from US Vice President JD Vance earlier this year -- it is still fundamentally local, reflecting what many in Romania view as lack of political leadership.
Elena Tanase, the director of RFE/RL's Romanian Service, points out that former President Klaus Iohannis has not held a press conference exclusively for Romanian journalists in recent years nor delivered a State of the Nation address.
The current government is plagued by scandal. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu faces allegations of involvement in real-estate corruption case, while former National Liberal Party leader Nicolae Ciuca has been accused of plagiarism in his PhD and financial mismanagement.
Moreover, Tanase says that Romania lacks a strong, pro-European, liberal-conservative party that could effectively represent its traditional, working classes. That has allowed nationalist movements to capitalize on voter discontent.
While Georgescu’s shock first-round win was helped along by a savvy -- and, potentially, illegal -- TikTok campaign, he was tapping into a deep malaise among many Romanians, who are sick of widespread corruption and a crumbling health-care system. (There is a common saying in Romania that you enter a hospital with one illness and leave with 10.) Romania's have-nots perceive their society as fundamentally corrupt, controlled by elites more interested in personal gain than public service.
Could Protests Escalate?
Tensions are high in Bucharest after protests following the election commission's verdict on March 9 left 13 security personnel injured. And there are fears the unrest could escalate. Georgescu, in a social media post on March 10, called for his supporters to remain peaceful as he fights to overturn the election board’s decision. “We must not give rise to violence or other actions like those seen last night,” he said.
How AUR leader Simion and the nationalist parties respond will be crucial. At a press conference on March 10, Simion said that his party, together with Georgescu, has a plan but would not disclose details. Echoing Georgescu’s remarks, he also called the current political system a "dictatorship" and affirmed that the nationalist parties would stand by Georgescu "until the end."
