Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I'm RFE/RL's China Global Affairs Correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.
Minding The Transatlantic Gap
China is looking to capitalize on a transatlantic rift between the United States and Europe that is widening as U.S. President Donald Trump looks to quickly end the war in Ukraine.
But how much of an opening is there actually for Beijing?
Finding Perspective: The threat of tariffs, a war of words at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, U.S.-Russia talks that excluded Europe and Kyiv, and a standoff at the United Nations over how to commemorate the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine have all been recent fissures between Washington and European governments.
That brought new questions about relying on the United States to European capitals and left an opening for Beijing, which has been trying to woo back Europe over the past four years.
On the sidelines in Munich, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held bilateral meetings with several top European officials, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
Spain's foreign minister seems to be at least more open to the idea of keeping China closer amid tensions with the United States.
Jose Manuel Albares told the Financial Times that the European Union should craft its own China policy and not follow the more confrontational line with Beijing advocated by those in the Trump administration.
"Europe must take its own decisions, on its own. And we have to decide when China can be a partner and when China is a competitor," Albares told the newspaper.
How We Got Here: During Trump's first term in office, Washington pushed European governments to take a harder line on China. That led to the bloc labeling China a "systemic rival" in 2019.
The Chinese government's untransparent handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, trade, human rights, and supply chain concerns, and Beijing's backing of Russia throughout the war in Ukraine all saw that harder line solidify in Europe under former U.S. President Joe Biden's tenure.
Now amid growing transatlantic tensions, some European governments see following Trump's tough stance on China as a way to win over Washington. Others, like the Spanish government, are arguing to preserve vital economic ties with Beijing, especially amid growing uncertainty about the United States.
This has even led to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, one of Brussels's more hawkish voices on China, calling in January for a new effort to improve relations between Brussels and Beijing.
A True Rift? Tensions on each side of the Atlantic are real.
Following his party's victory in elections on February 23, Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor-in-waiting for the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said the Trump administration "does not care much about the fate of Europe" and that the Continent needs to act accordingly.
"My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the U.S.A.," he said.
Talk of a seismic shift in the geopolitical order is also under way in Brussels.
One EU official recently back from discussions with U.S. officials told RFE/RL that the White House's focus is on ending the war in Ukraine and that there is a "take it or leave it" attitude from Washington.
The Trump administration wants to "remove the Ukraine issue from the table and move on to other issues. It is becoming clear that Trump's goal is to rule the world together with Russia and China" and work toward "strategically separating them from each other," said the official, who was granted anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters.
Why It Matters: Europe may be grappling with a realignment, but that doesn't mean China is its only option to hedge.
As European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visit Washington, von der Leyen is set to arrive in India on February 27.
James Crabtree, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told me that "it's hard to imagine a better time to re-energize Europe's and India's historically lackluster ties" and that a focus of the trip will be technology cooperation.
"A meeting of the EU-India Trade and Technology Council -- only the second since its foundation in 2023 -- offers opportunities to deepen collaboration in areas ranging from artificial intelligence to clean technologies," he said.
China may also be short on opportunities, with most EU members unable to look past its support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine. The bloc's most recent sanctions package passed on February 24 once again included Chinese companies and individuals.
What is likely to emerge is a more fragmented Europe when it comes to China. While some governments look to countries like India, South Korea, and Japan to balance out their foreign policy, others -- such as the current Spanish government and Hungary -- will keep courting Chinese investment and create new openings for Beijing.
Three More Stories From Eurasia
1. A Reverse Nixon?
China publicly backed the Trump administration's recent talks with the Kremlin, but analysts and former U.S. officials I spoke with mostly said the prospect of a U.S.-Russia reset is also making Beijing "nervous" about having less leverage over its partner.
The Details: "While a complete rapprochement might not be in the cards, they're nervous because if Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, then Moscow's dependency on China decreases," Dennis Wilder, who was a top White House China adviser to former U.S. President George W. Bush, told me.
One of the hallmarks of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's foreign policy has been a burgeoning strategic partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin that's grown closer since Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Beijing has propped up the Russian economy through enhanced trade and energy purchases while fueling the Kremlin's war effort with the supply of key goods as both Xi and Putin have found common ground in wanting to challenge the West and unseat the United States.
The fear of all that being derailed by a new type of U.S.-Russia relationship born out of a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine is real for Beijing.
Wilder says he's had conversations with "very senior Chinese officials" since Trump's election in November who have expressed concern about a potential U.S.-Russia reset.
He says they've used the phrase "Only Trump goes to Moscow," a play on the historical reference to former U.S. President Richard Nixon's landmark visit to Beijing in 1972, when he defied precedent and courted China to exploit its split with the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.
2. But Can It Work?
A grand bargain would be a major diplomatic feat, but it's something Trump administration officials have hinted at in public comments of late.
What You Need To Know: The Trump administration has made clear it sees managing a long-term rivalry with China as its top foreign policy objective and may look to deprioritize regions like Europe and the Middle East in order to raise pressure on Beijing in Asia.
Following the talks in Riyadh, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the possibility for future "geopolitical and economic cooperation" between Washington and Moscow was among the key points discussed.
And in an interview this month with The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Washington was prepared to reset the relationship with the Kremlin following an agreement over Ukraine as a move to end Russia's isolation and its growing dependence on China since the war began.
"It's not in Putin's interest to be the little brother in a coalition with China," Vance said.
The thinking is that even new cracks between the two powers may loosen Moscow's alignment with Beijing and could have a deterrent effect on China, especially if it decides to use military force to take Taiwan.
Still, both Beijing and Moscow are aware of what the White House is trying to do, and Beijing has made a point to show it and Moscow are still a tandem, including a recent phone call between Putin and Xi on the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine.
Steve Tsang, director of SOAS University London's China Institute, told me he believes Washington's efforts to reset its Russia ties are also not all bad news for Beijing.
"Xi does not want Putin to fail in the war, and so Trump delivering a peace that mostly meets Russian conditions is a positive," he said. "Who knows who will be the next U.S. president and if there will be a reversal of U.S. posture post-Trump."
3. Taiwan Watches A New U.S. Line On Ukraine
Ukrainians living in Taiwan and local supporters protested outside the de-facto Russian Embassy in Taipei on the eve of the third anniversary of Moscow's invasion.
What It Means: The self-governing island has been a vocal supporter of Kyiv, which the Taiwanese government sees as a foil for its own tenuous geopolitical position where China has long threatened to invade and annex Taiwan if it refused to peacefully accept unification.
Those parallels have grown since Trump's election. The United States is Taiwan's largest military backer and its support is considered vital for its survival, but Trump's global shakeup, including launching negotiations with Russia without Ukraine and threatening to cut off future aid to Kyiv, has brought anxiety to Taiwan about a similar withdrawal of American assistance.
When I was in Taiwan in December, I spoke with several senior officials who said they were closely watching what happened to Kyiv on the battlefield and with the new U.S. administration.
So far, the White House has reaffirmed its support for Taiwan, but Washington has also threatened tariffs on the island's semiconductor industry, which is responsible for around 60 percent of world production for microchips and 90 percent of the most-advanced ones needed for the global AI boom.
Across The Supercontinent
Choking Off Iranian Oil: Earlier this month, the United States brought in a new tranche of sanctions on Iranian oil, my colleague Kian Sharifi and I reported. The move is seen as an opening shot against Tehran and Beijing -- Iran's top oil customer.
New Bridge Deal: The Transport Ministry of Tajikistan and the Tajik branch of the Chinese company Zhejiang Communications Construction Group (ZCCC) signed a cooperation agreement for the construction of what will be the longest road bridge in Central Asia.
New Tools For Tashkent: Uzbekistan showcased on February 25 newly purchased Chinese-made air-defense systems, including the FM-90 short-range surface-to-air missile system and the KS-1C medium-to-long-range air-defense system.
One Thing To Watch
A Chinese-crewed cargo ship is detained in Taiwan's southern port of Tainan after a key Taiwan-Penghu Internet cable was mysteriously severed.
Taiwanese prosecutors are investigating whether this was an accident or part of a broader pattern of disruptions to vital communication lines, but the country's Coast Guard released footage of them apprehending the vessel.
The move comes amid growing tensions from a rise of so-called gray zone tactics, the term often used by Taiwanese officials to refer to the hybrid tactics used to intimidate the island but which remain below the threshold for war.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
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