Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.
A Warning From The Baltics
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis offered a clear warning for those who say that China is able to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Finding Perspective: Speaking to the French international affairs outlet Geopolitique.eu, Landsbergis stamped down the idea.
“China is waiting for a moment of weakness to step in and offer ‘solutions’ and I fear that some in Europe would accept this offer because it’s a cheap alternative to us stepping up, in the same way that you buy a Chinese car because it’s cheaper. The same goes for their peace proposals.”
Landsbergis was commenting on a recent interview with outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and The New York Times, where Blinken said that one of the reasons that Moscow had not escalated into a nuclear war in Ukraine was because of China.
“If you follow that line of reasoning, it means that China has become a protector of Europe. That would be the beginning of a new paradigm,” Landsbergis said.
“If we accept that China, which in my view supports Russia and is therefore an adversary of the countries supporting Ukraine, is now the guarantor of nuclear deterrence on our continent, it would be a dangerous mistake and a failure.”
Why It Matters: Landsbergis’s warning comes as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office and Europe anxiously looks at a very different geopolitical reality.
Trump’s tariff threats and less traditional approach to Washington’s relationship with Europe is a source of consternation in European capitals and there is talk in some corners about having a more amenable position toward Beijing to balance the Trump administration.
On January 14, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke with European Council President Antonio Costa to begin what many analysts believe will be a charm offensive from Beijing toward the continent.
But while Trump may have a rockier relationship with Brussels and various capitals than his predecessor, Beijing is also facing a different playing field than when U.S. President Joe Biden took office.
China’s support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine has strained ties with Europe, and Brussels is taking aim at Chinese companies in some sectors, a trend that looks set to continue.
EU High Representative Kaja Kallas has also voiced strong criticism of China, especially for its stance around the war in Ukraine and its long-term repercussions.
Landsbergis shared similar sentiments, saying that “Ukraine is central to what will happen in the future” between China and Taiwan.
“I mentioned earlier that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has managed to change the nuclear doctrine by getting us to accept, at least for now, that resisting an attack is a form of escalation and therefore a nuclear strike is justified.”
“One can imagine a situation where China imposes a blockade, even a partial one, on Taiwan and they resist and we try to lift it, then China could use the Russian playbook,” he said. “I don’t think we collectively understand how reckless it is.”
Three more stories from Eurasia
1. The Taliban Courts Chinese Capital
My Afghan colleagues at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi and I reported about a new road built by the Taliban in northeast Afghanistan that the hardline group is hoping can better connect the country to neighboring China.
The Details: The first section of the road in the Wakhan Corridor was completed a year ago in early 2024, and the Taliban is looking to build out the connections further to one day open up more trade with China.
The road link is part of a series of announcements and groundbreaking ceremonies in 2024 -- from oil deals to mining rights -- that the Taliban are hoping will keep moving ahead in the coming year.
But the main questions remain over whether the militants can finally calm China's long-standing security concerns.
Haiyun Ma, an associate professor at Frostburg University, told me that, despite the lofty deals, Chinese investment is still not flowing in Afghanistan and that there are growing frustrations under the surface between Beijing and the Taliban.
Ma says that the announcement in 2024 helps bring prestige and legitimacy to the Taliban as it adapts to governing and that it offers a low-risk, low-commitment way for Beijing to signal long-term intent toward the country.
But he adds that China is in no hurry to have a footprint in Afghanistan.
China is yet to set up a border crossing in the area where the Wakhan road leads and despite all the resource deals, Beijing has plenty of already developed alternatives elsewhere in the world to help meet its domestic needs.
2. Trump, Greenland, China, And The Arctic
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump has once again kicked up a storm by refusing to rule out the use of force to gain control of Greenland.
As my colleague Todd Prince writes, Trump’s pursuit shines a light on the complicated national-security picture in the Arctic between the United States, China, Russia, and other players.
What You Need To Know: While China is not an Arctic nation, it is seeking to be a major player in the region. In recent years, Beijing has sought to buy ports, other infrastructure, and mining rights on Greenland though it has not been successful.
Todd writes that the United States suspected China's real interest in those projects was to place dual-use sensors and radars in the Arctic Circle to help control their military satellites and gather intelligence on U.S. space-based operations in the region.
3. U.S. Energy Sanctions Hurt Chinese, Indian Purchases Of Russian Oil
Chinese and Indian refiners are looking for new fuel supplies as they adapt to hard-hitting new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers.
What It Means: Many of the newly sanctioned tankers brought oil to China and India, and both Bloomberg and Reuters reported that the sanctions have led to a jump in prices and driven Chinese refiners back to sellers of oil that is not restricted.
The sanctions were announced on January 10 and they target Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, two of Russia's five largest largest oil producers, as well as 183 vessels transporting Russian oil and oil products to foreign markets.
The Biden administration also sanctioned “opaque” traders of Russian oil, more than 30 Russia-based oil-field service providers, and more than a dozen leading Russian energy officials and executives.
The Chinese refiner Yulong Petrochemical has previously bought Russian crude, but, according to industry data, it purchased 4 million barrels of crude from the United Arab Emirates following the sanctions.
After the sanctions announcement, Unipec, a subsidiary of China’s state-owned energy giant Sinopec, booked four large carriers of crude from the Middle East which the data intelligence firm Kpler said could carry a total of up to 2 million barrels.
Across The Supercontinent
Kyiv’s China Consultations: Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry told RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service that 2024 was a year of “developing” political dialogue in Beijing, pointing to the extensive high-level talks with their counterparts in the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi added that Kyiv considers China one of the countries that can and does have influence on the Russian Federation. And we will continue to maintain this contact with the Chinese side.”
Parting Shots: In a speech at the State Department on January 13 summing up his administration’s record, Biden said the United States has widened its lead over competitors like Russia and China.
"Our adversaries are weaker than they were when we came into this job four years ago. Let's consider Russia. Putin invaded Ukraine. He thought he'd conquer Kyiv in a matter of days. But the truth is, since that war began, I'm the only one that stood in the center of Kyiv, not him," Biden said, referring to his visit to the embattled nation last year.
The China Connection: As Russian forces have intensified their advances in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, they're being helped by a new tool on the battlefield: drones that fly with the use of fiber-optic cables, RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service and I reported.
Some Ukrainian experts have said that the drone models used by Russia are very similar to China’s commercially available Skywalker drone. There are also growing reports in Ukrainian media of high-quantity orders being placed at Chinese factories by Russian companies for large spools of fiber-optic cables.
One Thing To Watch
Trade between China and Russia reached a record high in 2024, according to official data released on January 13 by China’s General Administration of Customs.
The figures show how Beijing and Moscow’s efforts to strengthen their relationship are paying off in the face of tough Western economic sanctions on Russia.
While the 2024 trade data reached an all-time high, the year-on-year growth rate slowed significantly compared to the 26.3 percent surge seen in 2023.
That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
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