10:28
20.2.2014
10:25
20.2.2014
One of the questions that has come up most often with regards to the crisis inUkraine is: how does this end? More bloodshed? Tanks on the street? A roll-back of the democratic gains Ukraine has made over the last 10 years?
Ed Lucas, an editor for "The Economist," has a piece in Britain's "Daily Telegraph" that outlines just how dismal the options could be.
Ed Lucas, an editor for "The Economist," has a piece in Britain's "Daily Telegraph" that outlines just how dismal the options could be.
Now all the likely outcomes are bad. Perhaps the authorities will decide that they cannot crush the protesters and will draw back, meaning months of tension, jitters and uncertainty. Even then, Ukraine’s territorial integrity has been shattered, perhaps fatally. In the west, government buildings have been set ablaze. The region – the old Austro-Hungarian Galicia – was the site of a decade-long insurrection post-war against Soviet rule. If pro-Moscow authorities in Kiev try to crack down there, civil war looms. That involves not just human suffering (and quite possibly large numbers of refugees) but also economic dislocation and grave risks of outsiders being drawn in. What happens if someone – a real or invented band of nationalist guerrillas, say – attacks one of the east-west oil or gas pipelines?
Equally worrying is Crimea, which could now be the flashpoint for another conflict with Russia, with far more devastating effects. The region is on the verge of declaring independence from Kiev (a move likely to prompt Russian intervention to protect the separatist statelet).
If the crackdown continues, and succeeds, we will see a dreadful roll-back of the gains of the past 10 years. The newly passed repressive laws will be used in full, not just against public protest but against independent media, civil society, and other institutions. We may see the reintroduction of a visa regime for visitors from Western countries. All kinds of foreign-related and foreign-sponsored activity will be impeded or banned. Ukraine will become another Belarus.
Once the country is at the Kremlin’s mercy, Mr Putin can extort a heavy price. He is known to disparage the very notion of Ukraine’s statehood, in public and in private. He could demand that it join a Russian-led security alliance. Russia’s military integration with Belarus is already proving a headache for Nato, which is struggling to work out how it can defend Europe’s north-eastern flank with its slender remaining resources. If the regime in Kiev proceeds with military and security integration with Russia, Central Europe will experience what the Baltic states have felt for several years: the icy sensation of a hard security threat.
Equally worrying is Crimea, which could now be the flashpoint for another conflict with Russia, with far more devastating effects. The region is on the verge of declaring independence from Kiev (a move likely to prompt Russian intervention to protect the separatist statelet).
If the crackdown continues, and succeeds, we will see a dreadful roll-back of the gains of the past 10 years. The newly passed repressive laws will be used in full, not just against public protest but against independent media, civil society, and other institutions. We may see the reintroduction of a visa regime for visitors from Western countries. All kinds of foreign-related and foreign-sponsored activity will be impeded or banned. Ukraine will become another Belarus.
Once the country is at the Kremlin’s mercy, Mr Putin can extort a heavy price. He is known to disparage the very notion of Ukraine’s statehood, in public and in private. He could demand that it join a Russian-led security alliance. Russia’s military integration with Belarus is already proving a headache for Nato, which is struggling to work out how it can defend Europe’s north-eastern flank with its slender remaining resources. If the regime in Kiev proceeds with military and security integration with Russia, Central Europe will experience what the Baltic states have felt for several years: the icy sensation of a hard security threat.
10:06
20.2.2014
Roland Oliphant is the Moscow correspondent for "The Telegraph."
09:59
20.2.2014
Interfax reports that contrary to earlier reports, EU ministers are meeting with Yanukovych now. The Interior Minister and Foreign Minister are also participating.
09:56
20.2.2014
09:51
20.2.2014
09:35
20.2.2014
Things are happening fast. Here is what we know so far:
-There have been widespread reports of live ammunition.
-There are significant casualties. Christopher Miller of the "Kyiv Post" reports seeing 35 dead.
-There have been widespread reports of live ammunition.
-There are significant casualties. Christopher Miller of the "Kyiv Post" reports seeing 35 dead.
08:43
20.2.2014
For your morning reading, here are three good, thoughtful takes on the crisis in Ukraine.
Among the Conspiracy Theorists by Peter Pomerantsev
All this is just what Putin wants. A national stand-off in Ukraine which redraws the lines between ‘Holy Russia’ and ‘Fascist-Homosexual West’.
Yanukovych’s gamble and Kiev’s burning by Mark Galleotti
Without in any way whatsoever condoning the violence of the government forces, I would note that they could have done much, much worse. On the whole, they have used birdshot from shotguns (brutal, but most likely to injure than kill) and the usual panoply of riot control: tear gas, water cannon, batons. This is not Chile 1973, Tiananmen 1989, or Andizhan (Uzbekistan) 2005.
Fascism, Russia, and Ukraine by Timothy Snyder
More subtly, what this campaign does is attempt to reduce the social tensions in a complex country to a battle of symbols about the past. Ukraine is not a theater for the historical propaganda of others or a puzzle from which pieces can be removed. It is a major European country whose citizens have important cultural and economic ties with both the European Union and Russia.
Among the Conspiracy Theorists by Peter Pomerantsev
All this is just what Putin wants. A national stand-off in Ukraine which redraws the lines between ‘Holy Russia’ and ‘Fascist-Homosexual West’.
Yanukovych’s gamble and Kiev’s burning by Mark Galleotti
Without in any way whatsoever condoning the violence of the government forces, I would note that they could have done much, much worse. On the whole, they have used birdshot from shotguns (brutal, but most likely to injure than kill) and the usual panoply of riot control: tear gas, water cannon, batons. This is not Chile 1973, Tiananmen 1989, or Andizhan (Uzbekistan) 2005.
Fascism, Russia, and Ukraine by Timothy Snyder
More subtly, what this campaign does is attempt to reduce the social tensions in a complex country to a battle of symbols about the past. Ukraine is not a theater for the historical propaganda of others or a puzzle from which pieces can be removed. It is a major European country whose citizens have important cultural and economic ties with both the European Union and Russia.
08:40
20.2.2014
Ian Traynor, the europe editor for "The Guardian," describes the situation on the ground in Kyiv.