PRAGUE –- Former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis has made a dramatic political comeback, winning parliamentary elections four years after losing power, but now faces tough talks on forming a governing majority in a vote that’s being watched internationally for its impact on the EU and NATO member state’s policy on Ukraine.
With some 95 percent of the vote counted, results showed Babis, a billionaire who leads the populist ANO party, as the clear winner. But he does not have a majority of seats, meaning potentially complex efforts to find coalition partners.
Many analysts suggest this may include the far-right SPD, which has called for the Czech Republic to withdraw from both the European Union and NATO.
“If the government is dependent on the position or on the support of the SPD, it's going to be very complicated,” Jan Machacek, a foreign policy adviser to Czech President Petr Pavel, told RFE/RL as results came in.
Machacek added that this would create “a very dangerous situation for foreign policy, because the SPD is extremist, sharply anti-Ukraine [and] EU -- a pro-Russian party.”
Babis has employed strong Euroskeptic rhetoric and also suggested he would end a Czech initiative to purchase munitions for Ukraine. But the 71-year-old has ruled out withdrawing from the EU or NATO.
Veteran Czech political commentator Jiri Pehe told RFE/RL the results meant “it will be very difficult for Andrej Babis to put together a stable coalition” based on the SPD and the Motorists, a small opposition group that has entered parliament for the first time.
Celebrating what he called a "historic result," Babis said he would seek to form a single-party minority government and would hold talks with the SPD and Motorists on securing their support for it.
Other parties, including members of the current governing coalition, have ruled out forming a government with Babis. But Pehe suggested this might change if he stepped aside and nominated a party colleague to be prime minister.
“He may try to approach one of the current government parties because it would be a more stable solution for him,” he said.
The prospect of Babis pulling the strings from behind the scenes would still alarm Czech allies used to the current government, which has been solidly pro-Western and pro-Ukraine.
He has often voiced support and affinity for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has blocked numerous EU measures sanctioning Russia or supporting Ukraine.
But Pehe said that Babis, with extensive business interests in Western Europe, had shown during his first term as prime minister (2017-2021) that he was a pragmatist.
“I don't think Babis will go as far as Orban or (Slovak Prime Minister Robert) Fico, if only because the Czech Republic is not any longer dependent on Russian oil and gas,” he said.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Prague has stopped imports of oil from Moscow completely and reduced its gas intake.
Hungary and Slovakia continue to import significant supplies of both fossil fuels.
