From Dayton To Riyadh: Can Shuttle Diplomacy End The Ukraine War?
The architect of the Dayton peace accords, Richard Holbrooke (left), chats with Carl Bildt, head of the OSCE mission in Bosnia-Herzegovina, in Sarajevo in September 1996.
With Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Riyadh in late March, diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine entered a new stage.
The two sides, however, are not meeting in person. Instead, in an effort to mediate a cease-fire and lay the foundations for long-term peace, U.S. negotiators are using so-called shuttle diplomacy, by holding separate meetings with both Russia and Ukraine.
It is strategy that, diplomats say, is remarkably similar to the negotiations that brought the Bosnian War to a close 30 years ago.
The Dayton peace accords, finalized in November 1995 at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio, were the result of frantic US shuttle diplomacy with the Bosnian, Serbian, and Croatian leaders.
How Shuttle Diplomacy Worked
The meetings in the Saudi capital on March 23-25 to end the war, which is now in its fourth year, somewhat resemble the events around Dayton, says Christopher Hill, the former US ambassador to Serbia and North Macedonia.
As the deputy to Richard Holbrooke, the chief US negotiator and "architect" of the Dayton accords, Hill was closely involved in the peace process.
"We found that when they got together, they would just give speeches about their disagreements and why they are right and the other side is wrong. So we found shuttle diplomacy a much more effective tool," Hill explains.
Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic (left), Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic (center), and Croatian President Franjo Tudjman (right) initial the peace agreement after 21 days of talks at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio, on November 21, 1995.
In the effort to achieve peace, US diplomats conducted meetings in Belgrade, Zagreb, and Sarajevo, as well as in Geneva. The goal, Hill says, was to get a real sense of what each side were looking for and then try to narrow it down. “And then, finally, toward the end of [the] Dayton [process], we started to get [them] together in the same room,” Hill recalls.
This method, Hill says, was used numerous times by Henry Kissinger, the US secretary of state under President Richard Nixon, as well as by Middle East negotiators. “But I think it was rather successful with Bosnia,” he adds.
Christopher Hill (file photo)
The Dayton accords were finally signed in Paris on December 14, 1995, and marked the end of a conflict that left 100,000 people dead, 2 million displaced, and the young country of Bosnia in ruins.
Mate Granic, who was the deputy chief negotiator for Croatian President Franjo Tudjman during the time of Dayton, says shuttle diplomacy is useful when the various positions are far apart.
"Ukraine seeks a just peace, while Russia has made it clear that it does not even want to discuss the occupied territories. Moscow also refuses to allow NATO peacekeeping forces or further military aid to Ukraine," Granic says. "Given this, shuttle diplomacy is the logical starting point."
A participant in the Dayton process, Nebojsa Vujovic, a member of the delegation led by Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic, says the current US tactics with Ukraine and Russia could possibly bring them closer together -- just as Richard Holbrooke managed in the 1990s.
The Bosnian War: From Death And Destruction To Dayton
1/15A family takes shelter in a cellar in Sarajevo on June 6, 1992, as shells fall on the Bosnian capital. The fighting continued, despite a UN-brokered deal to reopen the airport and for Serbian troops to withdraw from their barracks in the center of the city.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
2/15The UNIS twin towers burn along 'Sniper Alley' in downtown Sarajevo as heavy shelling and fighting raged in the Bosnian capital on June 08, 1992. Nicknamed 'Momo' and 'Uzeir' after a popular ethnic Bosniak and Serb comedy duo, the structures were heavily damaged during the siege of Sarajevo but remained standing to became a symbol of the city's resilience.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
3/15In an attempt to dodge snipers, a father and son sprint across a sandbagged bridge in the Olympic village area of Dobrinja, on January 4, 1993.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
4/15Bosnian Serb Commander Ratko Mladic speaks to Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic during a meeting in Pale, Bosnia and Herzegovina, on August 5, 1993. Both men are currently in custody and on trial for war crimes at the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
5/15Bosnian Muslim refugees are packed into a UNHCR truck on March 31, 1993, during the evacuation of the besieged town of Srebrenica. An enclave in the east of the town was designated a U.N. safe haven, but four months later, in July, more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys would be slaughtered in Europe's worst massacre since World War II.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
6/15Dutch peacekeeping soldiers talk with Bosnian Muslim fighters in Vares, on March 1, 1994.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
7/15With fuel in short supply, Bosnian army soldiers are forced to use a horse and cart to transport food supplies to the district of New Sarajevo near the airport on January 5, 1995.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
8/15These people were the lucky ones. Around 10,000 refugees from Srebrenica board buses at a camp outside the UN base at Tuzla Airport on July 14, 1995. Just three days earlier, on July 11, Bosnian Serb forces started slaughtering 8,000 Muslim men and boys in an eastern enclave of the town, dumping their bodies into pits in the surrounding forests.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
9/15The stench of death. An ethnic Croatian man holds his nose as he helps collect the decomposing bodies of 15 people left to rot in a meadow in northwest Bosnia, on October 16, 1995. Numerous mass grave sites were discovered in the wake of the Serb retreat from northwest Bosnia.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
10/15Delegates pose before the Balkan peace talks, on October 31, 1995, near Dayton, Ohio. From left to right: Richard Holbrooke, U.S. Assistant Secretary for European and Canadian Affairs; Franjo Tudjman, President of Croatia; Alija Izetbegovic, President of Bosnia-Herzegovina; Warren Christopher, U.S. Secretary of State; Slobodan Milosevic, President of Serbia.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
11/15Leaders sign their initials on the draft of the Dayton peace agreement on November 21, 1995, at the conclusion of the Proximity Peace Talks at the Wright Patterson Air Force Base near Dayton, Ohio. Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic is sitting second from the left. To his left are Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman and U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
12/15Young Bosnian Serbs celebrate the Dayton peace agreement in the north Bosnian town of Banja Luka on November 21, 1995.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
13/15A Bosnian Serb woman sits in her empty house as she prepares to leave the northern Bosnian town of Odzak on December 11, 1995. She was among 19,000 Bosnian Serbs that were relocated as the town came under Bosnian government control under the Dayton peace agreement.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
14/15A convoy from the First U.S. Army carries boats and pontoons to Slavonski Brod on December 13, 1995. As part of the Dayton peace agreement they will construct a bridge across the Sava River that will link Bosnia and Croatia.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
15/15Melica Saric, a Bosnian Serb mother, mourns at the grave site of her son Velimir on December 24, 1995, in Sarajevo. He was killed near the end of the war in October near the front line of Sarajevo's Serb-held suburbs.
It was the bloodiest conflict Europe had witnessed since World War II. Between 1992 and 1995, almost 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War, which erupted after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The bloodshed finally ended when the warring parties agreed to the landmark Dayton peace agreement, on November 21, 1995. Twenty years later, these are some of the haunting images of the conflict and the struggle for peace.
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"The fact that [US President Donald] Trump and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin are speaking by phone, as well as Trump and [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy, while the US envoy visits Kyiv and Moscow and reports back to Trump, means that shuttle diplomacy is currently bringing things to a point where an initial cease-fire agreement might emerge," says Vujovic.
After the conclusion of the Saudi talks last week, the United States announced separate agreements with Russia and Ukraine on efforts to stop strikes on energy facilities in both countries and on prohibiting the use of force in the Black Sea.
Lessons From Dayton
Holbrooke once called Dayton an "imperfect peace." The agreement created two entities -- Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina -- three constituent peoples, one district, 10 cantons, and a three-member presidency. Despite attempts in 2006 and 2009 to amend the Dayton accords -- an annex to which serves as the country’s constitution -- no substantial changes have been implemented.
Reflecting on the Dayton process three decades later and what lessons could be learned for future negotiations, including those between Ukraine and Russia, Hill emphasizes that continued engagement is important.
"I think that's going to be necessary. You can't just say, 'Well, that problem's over. We'll go on to the next one,'" Hill says.
Could there, in the future, be a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy? Hill thinks that's unlikely.
"I think Putin has assured [us] that there will be enmity between Ukraine and Russia for many generations," Hill says. "And so I would not try to put them together [so] that somehow they will feel that they are brothers or something, because that's not going to happen."
While Bosnia remains burdened by divisions and dysfunctionality, it has experienced nearly three decades of peace -- making Dayton one of the more successful peace agreements in modern history.
Dayton's success, according to Croatian negotiator Granic, was that it was a compromise with solid-enough foundations. “But, of course, further work and negotiations are [still] needed,” he adds.
Former Serbian diplomat Vujovic agrees. “It established a peace that has lasted for almost 30 years. Dayton...prevented destruction and loss of life, and, at the same time, created two entities that have remained stable, enabling some form of coexistence,” he says.
While the 1995 agreement had its flaws, Hill emphasizes that the United States didn't impose anything on anyone. “We were mediators," he says. "We were trying to get things that both sides -- actually, three sides -- could live with. That was hard to do.”
Ultimately, wars do end, Hill notes, and when you look at how they conclude, diplomacy usually plays a role.
"How big a role is yet to be determined. I think there's a logic to ending this war. You know, certainly Ukraine has been destroyed, but I think, in many respects, Russia has suffered profound damage, and not just from drones, but in terms of how its perceived in the world," he says
"I don't think anyone's going to look at Russians the same. It has to end. But how it ends is hard to say."
