Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two issues: Greenland’s crucial elections and the EU’s continued struggles with its external borders.
Briefing #1: Greenland Elections: Go American, Stay Danish, Or Go It Alone?
What You Need To Know: Normally the elections for the 31-member Inatsisartut, the parliament of Greenland, would get scant attention. The world’s biggest island, with a population of just 60,000, is rarely in the news. Until January 2025 that is, when the incoming US President Donald Trump expressed an interest in taking control of the strategically located and resource-rich territory. This was a move that sent shockwaves throughout Europe, notably for fellow NATO-ally Denmark to which Greenland in fact belongs. (While Copenhagen oversees foreign and monetary policy, Greenlanders control most domestic issues.)
That has meant all eyes will now be on the March 11 elections, called by Greenland’s prime minister, Mute Egede, after Trump’s pronouncements. And while regular domestic issues are part of the election campaign, the overriding issue is clear: go American, stay Danish, or aim for independence?
Deep Background: To be clear, most Greenlanders don’t want to become American and none of the five parties in parliament are advocating for it . Along with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Egede has made it clear that Greenland -- which is an autonomous territory in the Kingdom of Denmark -- is not for sale and that only Greenlanders can decide its future.
Interestingly, the parliament recently passed a law banning both anonymous and foreign donations in the election campaign. But what if an offer they can’t refuse comes their way? The United States first expressed an interest in the island in the 19th century and the territory is actually closer to North America than the European continent. Greenland's security is already guaranteed by virtue of a US air base in the north. And the Arctic is certainly not off-limits for the major powers.
Both China and Russia are active in the region, not only for its lucrative rare earth materials but also due to warmer temperatures melting sea ice and opening up lucrative trade routes. Even if the island doesn't become American anytime soon, there could be some sort of free trade or association deal with Washington in the future.
Then again, the Greenlanders can be a conservative bunch. Where others may see lucrative business opportunities, many of them see a homeland that should be preserved. Only two mines currently exist in Greenland, and the last election, in 2021, was dominated by the popular decision to limit oil and gas exploration and ban the mining of uranium.
Drilling Down
- It is here where Denmark comes into the picture. Three of the five political parties want independence from Denmark, including Prime Minister Egede’s left-wing Community of the People party, which finished first four years ago and is likely to finish on top again.
- The same is true for the ruling party's current coalition partner, the social-democratic Forward party, which is aiming to finish second. The liberal Democrats party, which prefers to remain in a union with Denmark, is also doing well in recent polls and could well complicate any coalition-building and the direction Greenland will eventually take.
- While most Greenlanders say they want independence, they also want to maintain their living standards. For that, the territory is largely dependent on Denmark. Loyal to the Danish crown since 1814, 50 percent of Greenland's exports go to Denmark and 60 percent of its imports are from Denmark.
- Half of the population works in the public sector, which Copenhagen to a large degree finances via grants. And to boost the security around the island, the Danish government last month pledged 2 billion euros ($2.16 billion) to improve its Arctic defenses.
- There is a commission in Greenland working on what a possible divorce from Denmark would look like, but essentially it would require three steps.
- Firstly, there would have to be a deal with Copenhagen on what separation would look like; secondly, there would have to be a positive result in a Greenland-wide referendum on independence; and finally, the Danish parliament would need to green-light the whole endeavor.
- The pro-independence parties want a referendum to take place sometime during the next four-year mandate, but, given the uncertainties surrounding the territory, that certainly doesn't look like it will happen in 2025.
Briefing #2: EU Delays New Entry/Exit System
What You Need To Know: The EU’s Entry/Exit System (EES), which is meant to do away with the manual stamping of non-EU passports, was supposed to be in use late last year. Eventually, it will mean an elaborate IT system at every EU harbor, international airport, and land-crossing that records not only entries and exits into the bloc, but also all relevant passport data, fingerprints, and facial images of any non-EU national visiting.
The 24 EU countries taking part (all the member states apart from Cyprus and Ireland, with Denmark potentially opting into the system later) and four non-EU countries (Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) simply weren't technically ready for the big bang rollout.
Notably, France, Germany, and the Netherlands -- the three countries in the bloc with the busiest airports and ports -- sounded the alarm that the system simply wasn’t ready and warned of chaos at crucial hubs if it didn’t function properly immediately. Other countries also expressed relief as they were behind in getting everything ready: for instance, putting in more automatic barriers, self-service kiosks, and getting the preregistration app fully functioning. This was quite a damning verdict as EES has essentially been in the works since it was first agreed by the bloc back in 2017.
Deep Background: When the club’s interior ministers met in Brussels on March 5, they agreed on how to proceed. What will happen now is a gradual rollout that will start in October. Member states that are confident the system works by then are free to operate it fully from day one. But, for others, the implementation will start in a progressive manner, with EES required at 10 percent of border crossings in each member state after the first month. To possibly complicate things further, designated EES lanes at border crossings will also be allowed.
After three months, the hope is that EES will be in place at 50 percent of border crossings. And then, after 180 days, the plan is for the system to be fully implemented. That will take us into the first quarter of 2026. During this entire period, however, member states are still allowed to stamp passports manually in case there are still issues with the system. Plus, participating states will still be allowed to both partially and fully suspend the system, as long as they communicate their reasons to the European Commission.
While the EU diplomats I have spoken to are a little nervous about how this will all turn out, they are hoping the EES will help prevent illegal migration and make it easier to police overstaying visas and identity fraud.
Drilling Down:
- At the meeting last week, interior ministers also agreed on a timeline, seen by RFE/RL, of other measures that will have an impact on non-EU citizens wanting to visit the bloc in the future. The most significant development is that ETIAS (the European Travel and Authorization System) “will be launched in the last quarter of 2026.” ETIAS is the EU's answer to the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) already used in the United States.
- ETIAS will allow travelers to come to the EU visa free and can potentially be used by an estimated 1.4 billion people, including citizens from Britain, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, the United States, and the non-EU Western Balkan states. The authorization, valid for three years, will cost 7 euros ($7.60) and will have to be completed by everyone between the ages of 18 and 70.
- It is worth, however, taking this latest timeline with a pinch of salt. Just as with the EES, ETIAS has been delayed repeatedly. It was first proposed back in 2018 and has been scheduled to be implemented every year since 2021. Rollouts have always been delayed due to technical issues.
- If the EES is fully implemented in the first quarter of 2026, as currently planned, it would increase the chances that ETIAS will follow later that same year as the two systems are linked.
Looking Ahead
The main thing to look out for this week is whether or not the United States will impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum from the European Union -- and how Brussels would likely react. Washington has been toying with the idea for weeks already and the issue could further widen the transatlantic rift over the war in Ukraine.
That's all for this week! Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on Twitter @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition subscribe here.
