European Union foreign ministers failed to take any meaningful decision on Georgia at their July 15 meeting in Brussels. However, the European Commission did send a letter to Tbilisi warning that Georgians' visa-free travel privileges could be suspended if a number of conditions aren’t met by the end of August.
The question now is how serious this deadline really is, whether the Georgian government will budge, and ultimately whether Brussels can actually muster the will to act if Tbilisi doesn’t change course.
One thing was clear from the start. Sanctions, even the latest proposal of slapping asset freezes and visa bans on two Georgian judges, were off the table.
Both Hungary and Slovakia had made it clear in preparatory meetings that they would not approve.
According to EU diplomats familiar with the discussions, the issue was briefly touched upon, but since unanimity is needed and clearly wasn’t attainable, it was agreed that sanctions work will continue at lower levels in Brussels.
This is a clear indication that restrictive measures of this sort won’t happen anytime soon.
And, with the same ministers at the same meeting failing to adopt sanctions on Israeli West Bank settlers and Russian officials, it is increasingly obvious that the EU consensus rule is once again preventing the bloc from taking concrete foreign policy decisions.
Surprisingly, there was also no push to start a review of the EU-Georgia Association Agreement, which could lead to the suspension of certain provisions -- particularly those related to trade.
Suspending Visa Liberalization?
The issue is how much of an effect this would have, as EU imports from Georgia under the agreement's free trade component are only worth around 200 million euros.
Some EU member states did bring it up, and there is a real possibility that the ministers will return to it when they formally meet again in October.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas concluded that the option of triggering a review is very much on the table, especially since this move doesn’t require unanimity.
That leaves the suspension of visa liberalization as the remaining option to put pressure on Tbilisi -- a move that would require a qualified majority to trigger.
While RFE/RL understands that such a majority is emerging, it’s not universally popular among member states and it was made clear that it should be used as a very last resort.
Around eight member states, led by Italy, argued against it, saying it would hit the Georgian population at large and therefore would be disproportionate.
Kallas urged countries to be ready to react in case Tbilisi hasn’t complied with eight visa-free regime benchmarks that the European Commission put forward in a report back in December 2024.
These benchmarks include repealing the controversial "transparency of foreign influence" law and the equally contested legislative package on "family values and protection of minors."
Brussels also wants Georgia to align its visa policy with the EU list of visa-required third countries.
Kicking The Can
Now the main consideration is whether the EU will really do something and what the deadline really is.
The European Commission did send a letter to Georgia on July 15 noting that “in case of persisting non-compliance the Commission could take appropriate measures on the basis of the Article 8 of the revised Visa Regulation, specifically activating the visa suspension mechanism.”
Various Georgian media outlets circulated an early version of the letter, which didn’t include a specific deadline. It simply asked Georgian authorities "to update the Commission on the implementation of these recommendations and, if not already done, to take appropriate measures to address the issues raised in all Commission recommendations (in annex).”
Interestingly, this was not the final version of the letter, which was identical to the draft apart from a revision of the above-mentioned paragraph.
The final version, seen by RFE/RL, stated that “we would like to ask you to update the Commission on the implementation of these recommendations by the end of August and, if not already done, to take appropriate measures to address the issues raised in all Commission recommendations (in annex).”
So, end of August it is -- a date Kaja Kallas also mentioned in the press conference after the foreign affairs meeting.
The question is how firm that deadline really is.
The Georgian parliament is in recess for all of August. While the president can recall the chamber for emergency sessions to pass crucial legislation, few in Brussels believe this will happen.
But the bloc is also “on holiday” for most of August.
EU foreign ministers will come together for an informal meeting in Denmark on August 29-30 and again on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September, but their first formal meeting at which any concrete decision can be made will take place on October 20.
It seems member states would be more comfortable waiting for the European Commission’s next visa suspension mechanism report due later in the autumn or even the annual enlargement reports, which the Commission plans to publish later this year, assessing the progress of all EU candidate countries.
As the ministerial meeting showed, Brussels tends to kick the can whenever consensus is lacking.
