Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am previewing the upcoming hearings in the European Parliament, where the commissioner candidates have to prove their worth.
Note to Readers: You can now listen to my briefings by clicking on the audio link below. We're actually using an AI version of my voice and would love to know what you think -- and, of course, what we can improve. Happy listening!
Briefing #1: Will Kaja Kallas Tone It Down?
What You Need To Know: While most of the world will likely be focusing on the U.S. presidential election and its aftermath, EU-types will be glued to something completely different: the hearings of the 26 commissioners-designate from November 4 to November 12.
Each candidate will face three hours of grilling from members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in a committee relevant to their assigned portfolio. Last time around, in 2019, three candidates were culled, so expect that this could happen again, leading to extra hearings later in the month.
One commissioner-designate who is expected to sail through, however, is the prospective EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. The former Estonian prime minister is considered one of the "stars" of European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen's new team.
What will be interesting at her November 12 hearing is to see how much (if at all) she tones down her hawkish rhetoric on China and Russia in order to fit the new post, where diplomacy and finding consensus on foreign policy issues is of paramount importance.
Deep Background: Judging from von der Leyen's mission letter to Kallas, the focus of much of the questioning will be on Ukraine. The mission letter, which is a public document outlining what the president expects from a commissioner over the next five years, essentially makes it clear from the very start: "We will work closely together to ensure that Europe stands with Ukraine for as long as it takes -- economically, politically, and militarily -- and supports its territorial integrity."
Can Kallas offer something new here? Kyiv is already expected to open EU accession chapters next year and EU financial support for the country for 2025 is already secured. So far, the EU has imposed 14 rounds of sanctions on Russia, but, from speaking to diplomats around Brussels, it is becoming increasingly hard to persuade EU member states to adopt more hard-hitting measures on Moscow with Europe's economic climate and outlook far from rosy.
So it will be interesting to see if Kallas takes a harder line, for example by preventing the circumvention of sanctions by adding third-country companies or even third countries on the bloc's blacklist. While the EU already has mechanisms in place to do this, so far the lists have remained empty.
If approved (and really it is a case of when rather than if), the former Estonian prime minister is likely to present a new sanctions regime targeting hybrid threats to the EU. A new regime dealing with Russian subversive actions toward the bloc was recently enacted, but Kallas is expected to push for a global mechanism.
Many MEPs will certainly push Kallas to include corruption as a sanctionable offense in the EU's "Magnitsky Act," which sets out sanctions for human rights violators in Russia. That's something that has eluded previous EU foreign policy chiefs, and those pushing such a measure hope it would mean leveraging Russian frozen assets in the EU to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Both moves require unanimity, and it will be Kallas's job to get that done.
Drilling Down:
- Both von der Leyen and the European Parliament will want Kallas to try to get more EU foreign policy decisions to be taken via qualified majority voting (55 percent of EU member states covering 65 percent of the total EU population voting in favor) to circumvent national vetoes. For a long time, this has been top of the EU's wish list, as it would allow the bloc to be nimbler in world affairs. Quite a few national capitals, however, are reluctant to give up their foreign policy prerogatives, and you need unanimity to get rid of the unanimity.
- Perhaps the most curious aspect of von der Leyen's mission letter is that it doesn't mention the Western Balkans or China. Still, the MEPs will surely question her on both.
- I have a hunch that she might announce at the hearing that her first trip as commissioner would be a visit to the Western Balkans. On this, she will certainly be quizzed on how she intends to resuscitate the EU-mediated Belgrade-Pristina dialogue.
- Her predecessors, Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, didn't accomplish much in Serbia-Kosovo relations over the last 10 years. Will she have a more hands-on approach with regular meetings with the two countries' leaders, or will she delegate the talks to a special representative, as Borrell did?
- The EU recently announced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and Kallas will likely be asked if she has more sectors in her crosshairs. She will also be pressed on whether she will go after China if Beijing continues to help the Kremlin's war efforts in Ukraine.
- With the hearing coming a week after the U.S. election, there will also be questions about future relations with Washington, especially if the more isolationist Donald Trump returns to the White House.
- Kallas, according to people who know her, is an ardent transatlanticist, but she will be asked about the need for the EU to develop some sort of "strategic autonomy" -- a concept that many in the eastern part of the bloc have seen as a French plan to diminish U.S. influence and elevate its own.
- One of her key tasks, together with the newly created portfolio of defense (given to the former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius), will be to compose a white paper on the future of European defense in the first 100 days of her mandate.
- As always, the million-dollar question will be how much money should be given to build up a European defense industry -- plus, whether the EU will work with non-EU defense contractors.
- And then there is, of course, the crisis in the Middle East. With member states divided on Israel, it's clear that the EU doesn't have much desire to shape the situation right now. But once the dust settles, there are calls for a robust plan. As her mission letter states: "You will take forward a comprehensive EU Middle East Strategy with a view to the day after the war in Gaza, focusing on promoting all the steps needed for the two-state solution and strengthening partnerships with key regional stakeholders."
Briefing #2: Marta Kos's Turn In The Hot Seat
What You Need To Know: While Kallas is expected to breeze through the questioning, the Slovenian commissioner-designate for enlargement, Marta Kos, is likely to face a stormier hearing on November 7. From speaking to sources in the European Parliament, it's thought that she is one of the candidates who could be voted down.
For starters, she is left-leaning in a chamber that is increasingly tilting right. Then there's the comments she made a month after Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when she noted that doors must not be closed toward Russia. There are also allegations of links to the former Yugoslav secret police, which she has denied, and complaints from former employees about her management when she served as Slovenia's ambassador to Germany.
While most of the questions will likely focus on how she ensures that EU hopefuls in both the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) and in the east (Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) move toward membership, there are plenty of other things for MEPs to sink their teeth into.
Deep Background: A key question is whether Kos will commit to any dates for future enlargement during her term, which ends in 2029. For example, Montenegro wants to be a member by 2028, but does she think that is feasible? Moldova and Ukraine aim to be part of the bloc by 2030, but does she think that's reasonable?
To be sure, enlargement timelines are complicated and not solely her call. She is a guide not a decision-maker. And the fact remains that no country has joined the EU since Croatia back in 2013, and every current member state can veto any opening and closing of EU accession chapters.
Moreover, von der Leyen's mission letter to Kos also doesn't commit. The letter just states that "you will work on gradual integration of candidate countries as they work to join the [European] Union."
Drilling Down:
- Even though, if approved, she may not see any new countries joining under her watch, Kos is likely to see quite a few of them advancing. Already in the first half of 2025, Moldova and Ukraine are expected to open the first EU accession chapters, de facto starting the negotiation process.
- While so far there seems to be little resistance in the bloc to Moldova joining, it will be interesting to see how Kos will deal with the member states, notably Hungary and possibly also Slovakia, that have expressed reservations about Ukraine's potential membership. Will she, for example, be in favor of decoupling Ukraine's and Moldova's candidacies?
- While Bosnia-Herzegovina is hoping to start opening chapters, conditions need to be met by Sarajevo, including stepping up the fight against organized crime and corruption.
- It might be that Kos would be the one to drag Montenegro over the finish line or at least get the country most of the way. Podgorica has opened negotiations on all 33 policy accession chapters but has only managed to conclude talks on three of them. At this point, Montenegro is closest to become EU member 28 and there is a feeling among pro-enlargement diplomats and politicians in Brussels that the bloc must show to other prospective members that enlargement is indeed possible.
- It won't be smooth sailing. While Albania just recently opened chapters and is making good progress, Serbia's accession could continue to be thwarted by Russia hawks in the EU's eastern members objecting to Belgrade's close links to Moscow.
- North Macedonia's newish center-right government is unlikely to meet Bulgarian demands that it change the country's constitution in order to open up the path for Skopje to start talks. North Macedonia's government has also referred to the country as just "Macedonia," irritating its southern neighbor Greece, which for decades was embroiled in fights with Skopje over the name issue. Finding ways for North Macedonia to have better neighborly relations with both Bulgaria and Greece will be an issue Kos will certainly be grilled on by MEPs. If she does get the job, she will spend a lot of time dealing with these delicate matters.
- Kosovo's EU membership application is stuck in the European Council, where EU members sit, as nonrecognizers of Pristina such as Spain aren't keen to send the application for an assessment across the street to the European Commission. Most likely, Kos will say that she is ready to sign off on the assessment but that it's ultimately out of her hands.
- And then there is Georgia, which has had its EU aspirations come to a halt over several controversial laws adopted by the current government. Kos's hearing will take place after key parliamentary elections in Georgia on October 26, so definitely expect some questions there. Georgia is actually not mentioned by name in the mission letter, which just says that "you should also develop a coordinated approach to supporting the countries of the Southern Caucasus, including on regional connectivity." Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but to lump Georgia in with Azerbaijan, an undemocratic state with no interest in joining the EU, and Armenia, which might be interested in joining but is reluctant to apply for fear of upsetting Moscow, seems to be already something of a snub.
Looking Ahead
There is another plenary of the European Parliament in Strasbourg this week. Look out for the debate and vote today (October 22) on the EU's next round of financial aid for Ukraine. The lawmakers are set to approve the 35 billion-euro ($38 billion) package after EU member states gave their consent earlier in October.
That's all for this week! Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
I will be off next week, so the new issue of the newsletter will come on November 5.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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