Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking into how Iran, perhaps naively, is relying on China and Russia to help it withstand the impact of UN sanctions if -- or more likely, when -- they are reinstated.
What You Need To Know
• Pezeshkian In China: Iran's pivot eastward came into sharper focus this week as President Masud Pezeshkian attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in China and held extended talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Tehran is trying to shore up support from Beijing and Moscow ahead of possible UN "snapback" sanctions -- a move that would reinstate strict arms embargoes and restrictions on missile-related activities.
• Will Women Be Granted The Right To Ride Motorcycles? For decades, women have been unable to obtain licenses, not due to an outright ban but because regulations only name men as eligible applicants. This gap has left female riders exposed to fines, confiscation, and harassment, while officials justified the exclusion under "Islamic values." A new government bill now seeks to amend licensing laws and extend permits to women.
• Unaccounted Enriched Uranium Likely Buried: Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said this week that there is "a general understanding" that Iran's 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium is likely still in underground facilities bombed by the United States in June. He told Reuters that the UN nuclear watchdog has had no indications to suggest the material was moved. Iran insists on keeping the location of the material secret.
The Big Issue
Eastern Friends?
The SCO summit provided Pezeshkian with a high-visibility platform to push for a non-Western world order as Iran faces the prospect of intensified isolation. Meetings with Chinese and Russian leaders were top priorities, highlighting Tehran's desire for Eurasian partnerships to counter Western pressure and economic stricture.
Russia, meanwhile, reaffirmed support for Iran at the UN level, jointly proposing a draft resolution with China aimed at delaying the snapback process.
Why It Matters: Iran has signed sweeping strategic agreements with both China and Russia, but these partnerships are transactional, not ironclad alliances.
Both Moscow and Beijing have benefitted -- cheap Iranian oil for China, Iranian drone technology for Russia -- in return for ambiguous pledges of support. Yet neither intervened militarily or broke sanction rules during recent crises, offering mostly rhetorical and diplomatic cover.
In fact, former diplomat Mohammad Sadr claimed in an explosive interview last week that Russia had "provided Israel with intelligence about Iranian air defense centers" during the 12-day war in June. That allegation, along with other claims he made in the interview, got him a court summons in Tehran.
If UN sanctions return, all member states -- including China and Russia -- will be legally bound to enforce the embargo on arms and missile technology. History and current signals show neither power is prepared to risk their global interests or defy UN Security Council decisions, especially in the sensitive realm of advanced weapon sales or missile cooperation.
What's Being Said: Pezeshkian told reporters after returning from China that "very important, strategic, and vital decisions" were made in meetings with the presidents of China, Russia, and Turkey.
He added that his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin lasted nearly four hours and included discussions about regional issues and UN sanctions.
"For China to turn SCO into a true bloc versus the West, it must bear the costs," argued Arman Mahmoudian, a researcher at the Florida-based Global and National Security Institute. That includes ignoring sanctions on Iran and Russia, he said, without which "a full-fledged anti-Western alliance won't materialize."
Expert Opinion: Damon Golriz, a lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that China wants to use Iran to push back against US influence in the region, but for Tehran, this does not necessarily translate into significant economic benefits.
"China will back the Islamic republic to advance its objectives, but that does not mean it will invest money for development in Iran," he said, arguing that Beijing is "cautious" in its approach toward Iran's clerical establishment because it's not very stable.
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
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