Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL's Iran correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm exploring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's recent comments on engaging the United States and whether Iran is ready to make big concessions.
What You Need To Know
• Khamenei Gives Blessing To Talks With Trump: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei this week appeared to green-light talks with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration in the hopes of lifting sanctions. Iranian officials had been signaling a desire to talk to Trump, but talks can't take place without Khamenei's say-so.
• Iran Frozen Out As World Warms Up To Syria's New Rulers: Syria's new government has reportedly held more than 200 diplomatic engagements since coming to power on December 8, including with Western and Arab delegations and, notably, Russian diplomats. Iran, however, is nowhere to be seen. Iran and Russia helped former President Bashar al-Assad fight rebel forces that now run the country. The Kremlin seems to have established some rapport with Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, but the Islamic republic has been entirely frozen out.
• U.S. Federal Funding Freeze Spooks Iran-Focused Advocacy Groups: NGOs and advocacy groups that focus on Iran have raised concerns about their work being impacted by the Trump administration's decision to pause federal grants and loans. The groups, some of which work on facilitating Internet access and monitoring human rights violations in Iran, argue that Tehran stands to benefit from the funding freeze. Hard-line media in Iran have welcomed the decision. A judge has blocked the temporary freeze, but the White House has said it will pursue its implementation.
The Big Issue
Expectations Vs. Reality: What Is Iran Ready To Give Up?
Khamenei told a gathering of state officials and envoys from Muslim nations on January 28 that Tehran should be wary of "enmity and grudges" concealed behind "diplomatic smiles."
But he followed that up by saying that when "you know the person you're dealing with," it's possible to "make a deal but you also know what to do."
This comment is widely seen as a green light to sit down with the Trump administration -- something that seemed impossible just a few years ago.
Why It Matters: Iran has suffered setbacks abroad and is facing challenges at home, not least a struggling economy and weak currency -- both exacerbated by U.S. sanctions.
Iran wants the sanctions lifted, but the question is what Khamenei is willing to negotiate away. Iran is at its weakest and most vulnerable in decades. With its network of regional proxies politically and militarily degraded, the only real bargaining chips Tehran is left with are its advanced nuclear and missile programs.
There are no good options for Iran: It insists its nuclear program is peaceful and meant to generate power, while its missile program is an integral part of its defensive doctrine. Budging on either will upset the Islamic republic's core support base, but not making any meaningful concessions will only add to international pressure and further sink the economy.
What's Being Said: Supporters of engaging Trump have taken Khamenei's comments to mean he is backing "cautious negotiations" with the U.S. president.
But opponents of talks with the West insist that it would be "naive" to take Khamenei's remarks as a green light to open negotiations with Trump.
Khamenei has perfected equivocation, speaking in vague terms that open up his comments to interpretation. He does not like to publicly commit to a position, likely because it shields him from taking responsibility when things go south.
Expert Opinion: "Khamenei's main plan is to buy time and manage the situation to navigate the second Trump presidency with minimal risk, based on the implicit acknowledgment of the regime's weakened position both domestically and internationally," says Ali Afshari, a U.S.-based political analyst and adjunct professor at George Washington University.
What's Ahead
These are the stories we'll be watching between now and the next issue of the Farda Briefing:
- Iran has been waiting to receive advanced Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia for nearly two years. A military official's comment this week about Tehran having purchased the warplanes has observers wondering whether delivery is close.
- Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref will attend a summit of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on January 31-February 1.
- RFE/RL's Radio Farda has interviewed Oscar-nominated Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof, whose movie The Seed of the Sacred Fig is up for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film in March. You can watch a sneak peek of the interview here.
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.
