Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at how Iran's threats to go nuclear and its insistence on indirect talks with the United States are frustrating the West, with France warning military action is becoming "inevitable."
What You Need To Know
• Doubling Down On Nuclear Threats: Ali Larijani, a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader, has warned that military action against the Islamic republic would push Tehran to develop nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, France has raised the alarm over Iran's nuclear program, warning that if there is no deal by October military confrontation would be "almost inevitable."
• Alleged Bank Hacking Fuels Outrage: Iran's Sepah Bank was allegedly hacked by the Codebreakers group last week, exposing the data of 42 million customers, including high-profile accounts. Sepah Bank has denied any breach, insisting its systems are secure and "unhackable." The breach has fueled online outrage over economic inequality and Iran's cybersecurity weaknesses. The alleged compromised data includes information related to members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
• Sociologist Faces Backlash After Criticizing Khamenei: Iranian sociologist Mostafa Mehraeen sparked controversy after publishing two open letters criticizing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the first, he urged Khamenei to acknowledge mistakes, apologize, and step down, leading to legal action and a court summons. In his second letter, he questioned Khamenei's belief in his divine mission. In an interview with RFE/RL's Radio Farda, he praised the "strength" of Iranian society, crediting it for giving him the "courage" to address Khamenei.
The Big Issue
Friends Or Enemies -- Pick One
Larijani, a senior adviser to Khamenei, said on April 1 that the United States could either approach Iran as an economic partner or treat it as the enemy.
"They can talk about economic benefits and have fair cooperation with Iran on economic issues that benefit both," he said in a televised interview.
But Larijani, a former parliament speaker and ex-national security adviser, added that military threats against Iran would only make matters worse.
"If America or Israel attacks Iran under the pretense of nuclear issues, Iran might move toward making an atomic bomb," he said.
Why It Matters: US President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Iran if there is no agreement on Tehran's nuclear program.
The 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump withdrew from in 2018, is set to expire in October. Once the deal expires, world powers will not be able to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran.
Acknowledging that, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot on April 2 warned in parliament that in the absence of a new deal, "a military confrontation would appear to be almost inevitable."
Iran has rejected Trump's proposal for direct negotiations, saying it will only agree to indirect talks unless the US president drops his "maximum pressure" campaign. However, Trump claimed on April 3 that he thinks Iran has reconsidered its stance.
Barrot said "our priority" is to reach an agreement that "verifiably and durably constrains" Iran's nuclear program.
But contradictory messages have been coming from the United States, with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff calling for the "full dismantlement" of the program.
Fabian Hinz, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said recent military drills and the unveiling of missile bases suggest Tehran believes military threats are credible. The United States beefing up its presence in the Middle East has certainly contributed.
He told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that a military strike would only "buy time" rather than destroy Iran's nuclear capability, since "knowledge can't be bombed."
Hinz argued that if Iran's nuclear program is attacked it would likely continue covertly. He added that identifying and targeting supply chains in Iran could "disrupt the program really heavily."
What's Being Said: Larijani's comments, particularly on the potential to develop a bomb, has caused a flurry of reactions inside Iran.
Reformist analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi said the Islamic republic "only makes matter more difficult for itself and easier for America and Israel" when officials keep touting Iran's military strength and the ability to weaponize the nuclear program.
Culture Minister Abbas Salehi rejected the possibility of Iran going nuclear, insisting Khamenei's fatwa against developing a nuclear weapon would not change based on current affairs because it was rooted in "religious principles."
Expert Opinion: "From an Iranian perspective, it would make sense to take all of Trump very seriously, because he killed one of the highest-ranking members of the regime," said Hinz, referring to the 2020 killing of IRGC Quds Force general Qassem Soleimani.
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
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