Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I delve into U.S. President Donald Trump’s apparent reluctance to return to his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran and his explicit desire for a “verified nuclear peace agreement” with Tehran.
What You Need To Know
• Trump 'Torn' Over Increasing Iran Sanctions: Trump on February 4 signed a memo to bring back the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran that was the cornerstone of his policy toward the Islamic republic during his first term in office. But he said he was "torn" about signing the memo, which aims to drive Iran’s oil sales down to zero. Iran has dismissed the move, but has also said it can offer Trump assurances that it is not trying to weaponize its nuclear program.
• 'Honor' Killings Epidemic: Every two days, a woman becomes a victim of femicide in Iran, according to an analysis by RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. The New York-based NGO Stop Femicide Iran says the majority of women are killed in the name of preserving the family’s "honor."
• Pahlavi Says He's Been Barred From Attending The Munich Security Conference: Prominent opposition figure and Iran’s former crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, said on February 6 that he was “blocked” by the German Foreign Ministry from attending this year’s Munich Security Conference on February 14-16, despite receiving an invitation. Pahlavi accused Germany of trying to “appease the Islamic republic” and “silence the Iranian people.” The German Foreign Ministry has not directly addressed the claim, but a spokesperson told Radio Farda that conference organizers "independently" decide who can attend the gathering.
The Big Issue
Sanctions With A Chance Of Talks
When Trump hit Iran with sanctions during his first term in office, Iran’s oil sales plummeted but they did not quite reach zero.
While signing the memo in the White House to bring back his "maximum pressure" policy, Trump said it was “very tough” but added that he was “torn” about signing it. He said Iran was “too close” to weaponizing its nuclear weapon.
"With me, it's very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," Trump added.
He also expressed an openness to meeting his Iranian counterpart Masud Pezeshkian, but notably, he later wrote in a Truth Social post that he “would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper.”
Trump in 2018 withdrew the United States from a landmark nuclear deal negotiated by President Barack Obama, which included a mechanism whereby UN inspectors ensured Iran was keeping its nuclear program peaceful.
Why It Matters: Trump instructed relevant authorities to strictly enforce existing sanctions and later target a network facilitating Iran's oil sales to China.
Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden was widely believed to have relaxed the enforcement of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, in part to keep prices down, which contributed to a rise in Iranian oil sales. What also helped with that were Iran mastering sanctions-evading tactics and a Chinese appetite for Iranian oil.
“China is likely to respond negatively to any sanctions that touch its own banks, refiners, or ports. If the sanctions are limited to tankers or intermediaries, I doubt we'll see much of a reaction from Beijing," said Gregory Brew, an Iran and energy analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.
Also notable is that Trump chose to issue a memorandum, which is generally less formal than an executive order.
“I believe this was a signal, and to make sure this signal was received in Tehran, Trump said several times that he hoped he would not have to enforce the memo,” Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Radio Farda.
What's Being Said: The message appears to have been received by the Iranians, who dismissed the efficacy of the "maximum pressure" campaign but also sought to reassure Trump that Tehran’s nuclear program is peaceful.
Pezeshkian insisted that Tehran knew how to bypass sanctions while Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the policy would “fail again.”
But the top Iranian diplomat later took to X to say that “it is not difficult to reach practical assurances” that Iran won’t develop nuclear weapons, in an apparent response to Trump’s concern about Tehran building nukes.
In return, Araqchi said, Iran wants “objective guarantees” that sanctions “will be effectively terminated.”
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who last week appeared to give his blessing to talks with Trump, struck a different tone after the "maximum pressure" announcement and said on February 7 that it "would not be smart or honorable to negotiate with such a government."
Expert Opinion: “The path that Trump has adopted vis-a-vis Iran is vastly different from what many expected, both in terms of statements and actions,” said Azizi.
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
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