In the February 15 snap presidential election in Abkhazia, a Russian-backed breakaway region of Georgia, every candidate aligned themselves with Russia in rhetoric. Yet the Kremlin's clear favorite, acting leader Badra Gunba, failed to secure an outright majority, forcing a runoff against Adgur Ardzinba, a challenger critical of Russian-backed economic policies.
The Election Commission confirmed Gunba's failure to cross the threshold of 50 percent, with a decisive second round expected by March 1.
A key complication for Gunba is that polling stations in Moscow and Cherkessk -- where he has strong support -- were only open in the first round. The runoff will also feature a protest vote option, which adds further uncertainty.
Gunba, who previously served as vice president, took over as acting leader on November 19 after Aslan Bzhania resigned amid mass protests against an investment deal with Russia. Opponents feared the agreement threatened Abkhazia's already fragile status under Russian control.
Ardzinba, a former de facto economy minister (2015–2020) and leader of the Abkhaz People's Movement, ran on a platform opposing the deal, though he still pledged close ties with Moscow. Russian pro-government media have attempted to frame him as "pro-Turkish."
Georgia's Foreign Ministry denounced the "so-called presidential elections in Russian-occupied Abkhazia," urging international condemnation of Moscow's ongoing violations.
Abkhazia is not recognized as an independent entity by the international community, with only Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru, and Syria (under Assad's recently ousted government) claiming otherwise.
Moscow's Economic Grip And Political Sway
Despite Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its military presence in Abkhazia remains strong, with reports suggesting plans for a naval base in Ochamchira. The election comes amid heightened tensions over Russian influence following last year's controversial investment deal, which Abkhazia's parliament ultimately rejected after Bzhania's departure.
The agreement was part of a broader push by Moscow to cement economic control, including previously rejected proposals to allow Russians to buy real estate and recognize Russian court rulings in Abkhazia.
Russian authorities have reportedly retaliated against opponents of these measures; two vocal critics, lawmaker Kan Kvarchia and activist Levan Mikaa, were stripped of Russian citizenship.
The Kremlin's Man
Moscow made no secret of its preferred candidate.
Just days before the election, on February 7, Russia carried out a test flight from Moscow Vnukovo Airport to the long-defunct Sukhumi Babushara Airport, bringing Gunba amid passengers and pledging to establish regular air connections later this year.
Gunba met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. To bolster his position, Moscow announced the resumption of financial aid -- suspended since September -- and increased electricity supplies amid severe shortages.
The Kremlin's election efforts were led by Sergei Kiriyenko, a top Putin aide, who pledged funding for Abkhazia's public sector and infrastructure.
With the second round looming, Moscow's influence remains decisive. Gunba's failure to win outright underscores growing unease in Abkhazia over Russian economic expansion, and whether the runoff delivers a different outcome remains to be seen.
The EU reiterated its support for Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty in a statement, saying it does not recognize the constitutional and legal framework in which the "so-called presidential elections in Abkhazia" took place.
