TBILISI -- Georgian voters are heading to the polls on October 26 for parliamentary elections that all sides see as a crossroads in the country's modern history. Tension has been high ahead of the vote, and with no reliable polls the outcome is anyone's guess.
The ruling Georgian Dream party has been in power since 2012 and is seeking another four-year term. They have framed the election as a choice of peace or war; the party's campaign messaging has been dominated by the argument that if the opposition were to come to power it would drag Georgia into war against Russia.
Russia Vs. The West
For the opposition, the vote represents a choice between the West or Russia and between democracy and authoritarianism. That narrative has been echoed by officials in the United States and Europe.
Georgians Rally In Tbilisi Ahead Of Crucial Vote
The elections "will be the moment of truth and the Georgian people will have to decide which way they want to go: toward Europe or getting apart from Europe," the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said."It's the future of the country which is at stake."
Democratic Backsliding
The vote will take place following an unusually tumultuous period even by Georgian political standards. Georgian Dream has embraced increasingly anti-Western rhetoric and adopted controversial laws that they justify as a means of combating foreign influence in the country.
They include laws banning "LGBT propaganda" and requiring NGOs and media that get funding from abroad to register as"foreign agents." The reintroduction of the latter law sparked huge protests this spring.
Opposition Challenge
The vote will be held under a new electoral system in which parties or coalitions have to meet a threshold of 5 percent to make it into parliament. That has motivated Georgia's numerous and fractious opposition parties to cooperate to some degree to form coalitions with a reasonable chance of making it over the threshold. In the end, four likely viable opposition forces have emerged:
- Unity -- To Save Georgia, a coalition led by the former ruling United National Movement (ENM) party once headed by imprisoned former President Mikheil Saakashvili
- Coalition for Change, largely made up of other former ENM-affiliated figures
- Strong Georgia, an ideologically eclectic coalition that has tried to position itself as neither ENM nor Georgian Dream
- For Georgia, a party led by Giorgi Gakharia, who was prime minister under Georgian Dream from 2019 to 2021 but then broke with the party
While the four manifest some differences in their preelection promises, they are largely united on their overarching priority of ousting Georgian Dream and have, for the most part, directed their fire at the ruling party rather than each other.
They all have signed a Georgian Charter proposed by President Salome Zurabishvili, in which they agree, in the case of an opposition victory, to let her form a technocratic government that would restore good relations with the West and repeal the most authoritarian laws that Georgian Dream has passed in the run-up to the campaign.
Zurabishvili, whose term ends this year, was elected president as an independent candidate in 2018 but was supported by Georgian Dream. She has since distanced herself from the party.
Ruling Party's Advantage
Ruling parties in Georgia traditionally have an electoral advantage in that they can cajole government employees and their families to vote for them. Western observers have judged past Georgian elections as flawed but legitimate.
But Georgian Dream's authoritarian turn and its particular targeting of election-monitoring groups as foreign agents have raised fears there may be more outright fraud this time around.
Georgian Dream leaders have said their goal is to win not merely a majority but a constitutional majority (113 out of 150 seats), which would allow them to rule more unilaterally. They have promised that, with a constitutional majority, they would strengthen anti-LGBT laws and ban all the major opposition parties, deeming them responsible for provoking the 2008 war against Russia and trying to drag the country into war again.
Given the high stakes and the uncertainty around the results, many worry about the prospect of unrest following the elections. For the first time, Georgia will be using a new electronic ballot-counting system (with a paper backup), and results are expected one to two hours after polls close at 8 p.m. Georgian time.
