Middle East
- By Kian Sharifi
Who Was Hassan Nasrallah, The Assassinated Leader Of Hezbollah?
Hassan Nasrallah was the longtime leader of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah confirmed on September 28 that Nasrallah was killed in massive Israeli strikes on the Lebanese, capital, Beirut the day before.
In his more than 30 years in charge of Hezbollah, Nasrallah transformed the Shi'ite militia into a major political force in Lebanon and a powerful adversary of neighboring Israel.
In that time, the 64-year-old cleric became one of the most powerful and polarizing figures in the Middle East.
To many members of Lebanon's Shi'ite community, a historically marginalized group, he was a hero. But others considered him a warmonger who dragged the country into regional conflicts.
Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
Nasrallah was born in 1960 to a poor family in the southern suburbs of Beirut. After studying at a Shi'ite seminary in Iraq, Nasrallah joined the Amal movement, a militia that sought to elevate the status of Lebanon's Shi'ite community.
Following Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982 -- during Lebanon's devastating civil war -- Nasrallah joined the newly formed Hezbollah.
A charismatic cleric and skilled orator, Nasrallah quickly rose through Hezbollah's ranks. When Israel assassinated Hezbollah chief Abbas al-Musawi in 1992, Nasrallah was picked as his successor at the age of 32.
Nasrallah forged a close relationship with Shi'a-majority Iran, Hezbollah's key backer. With significant financial and political assistance from Tehran, Nasrallah built Hezbollah into a powerful political and military entity in Lebanon and a major player in the region.
Hezbollah's fight against Israel won Nasrallah support inside and outside Lebanon. In 2000, following persistent Hezbollah attacks, Israel withdrew its forces from southern Lebanon after an 18-year occupation.
In 2006, Hezbollah's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers triggered a devastating 34-day war with Israel. Despite the destruction and loss of life caused, the war boosted the standing of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the region.
Under Nasrallah's leadership, Hezbollah came to the aid of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during that country's civil war, trained Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen, and assisted Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group.
Hezbollah has also been accused of orchestrating the deadly 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in the Argentinian capital, Buenos Aires.
The cleric was rarely seen in public in the past two decades, with most of his supporters witnessing his once black beard turning gray only on television screens. Wearing a black turban, Nasrallah often delivered long speeches via video link from secret locations due to security concerns.
Since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged constant cross-border attacks. Hezbollah has said that it is acting in solidarity with Palestinians.
Nasrallah's organization suffered major setbacks in recent months. Israel assassinated key members of Hezbollah's leadership, neutralized a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupted its communications.
In his most recent speech on September 19, following suspected Israeli attacks targeting electronic devices used by members of Hezbollah, Nasrallah warned Israel that "retribution will come."
More News
- By Ray Furlong
Interview: Amid Ongoing Public Absence, Is Iran's New Leader In Control?
TEL AVIV -- Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is probably in charge despite making no public appearance since being appointed on March 8 and amid reports that he was injured in an air strike, according to a leading Israeli expert on Iran.
Speaking to RFE/RL in Tel Aviv on March 11, Raz Zimmt, who is head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies, said the question was whether Khamenei would be capable of maintaining "daily contacts with the political and security establishment" to preserve "the ability of the regime to function."
RFE/RL: What's your assessment of where we are now in the war?
Raz Zimmt: It's very clear that both Israel and the United States have achieved very significant military achievements in their attempts to degrade as much as possible Iran's strategic capabilities.
If you look at the ballistic missiles capacities, if you look at the aerial defense system, even some of the remains of the nuclear program in Iran, and certainly the attempts to undermine or to degrade Iran's security forces, the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guards [Corps], the Basij, the Iranian Navy, all is going quite well.
The question is whether those achievements will allow to achieve the main objectives, which are, in my view: one, to degrade Iran's strategic capabilities to a point where it's going to be very difficult to reconstitute its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles, just as it tried to do after the 12-day war in June.
And then the second objective would be to weaken and undermine the Iranian regime.
RFE/RL: OK, let's take those one at a time, starting with the effective degradation of Iran's military and security capabilities.
Zimmt: When it comes to the missiles, during the 12-day war in June, Israel managed to destroy a lot of the launchers and then to block the entrances and the exits to the so-called underground compounds used to store them.
If that happens again, it won't make any real difference because at the end of the day Iran will be able to restore the production of its missiles -- unless the United States is capable of targeting and hitting the underground compounds and, more importantly, to hit the production lines.
Concerning the nuclear issue, if the war ends with 450 kilograms of enriched uranium to 60 percent (eds: estimates of how much Iran has vary; this figure was given by US envoy Steve Witkoff), if this fissile material still is left in Iran, it's going to be a very disturbing development because Iran can still have the technical know-how and the capability to break out [and develop nuclear weapons].
RFE/RL: Let's just look at the new leadership emerging in Iran. There's still no sign of Khamenei Jr.
Zimmt: Right. There were some reports that he was actually injured during the first hours of the attack, but he was nominated by the Assembly of Experts, so we should assume he's capable of fulfilling his task, at least.
RFE/RL: So you wouldn't read too much into the fact that we haven't seen him anywhere?
Zimmt: No, it's very obvious that the Iranian regime is fighting for its survival. They know very clearly that Mojtaba Khamenei might become the next target by either Israel or the United States, and so he should hide. The question in my view is whether he's capable of reaching out and continue his daily contacts with the political and security establishment inside Iran, because that's what matters, whether he's capable of...preserving a kind of continuity in preserving the ability of the regime to function.
RFE/RL: Can the regime survive?
Zimmt: Any kind of regime change in Iran -- and we certainly hope for regime change in Iran -- depends in my view on three main conditions. One is to see millions of Iranians in the streets. because otherwise it's going to be almost impossible, in my view, to topple the Iranian regime only through aerial strikes from above.
The second condition would be to see some kind of coalition between different sections and parts of the Iranian society -- students, women, bus drivers, workers, ethnic minorities -- working together.
Last but not least, I would say one condition for a regime change in Iran is to see some cracks and divisions and perhaps defections from within the security apparatus inside Iran. And that's something which is going to be very difficult to achieve because, as we know, the Revolutionary Guards [and] the Basij are very much dependent on the Islamic republic. They know that if the regime collapsed, they might pay the consequences for that. And so they will fight until the end, in my view.
RFE/RL: So no cracks so far?
Zimmt: We might see some weakening of the command and control networks inside Iran. We might see some divisions between different sections of the military and political establishment inside Iran.
But certainly we have not seen any kind of losing control. Just yesterday I looked at information about checkpoints established by the Basij, by the law enforcement forces in Iran. We still have reports about the intelligence agencies in Iran arresting people for treason or for cooperating with Israel.
RFE/RL: If the regime does survive, what's it going to be like?
Zimmt: I'm afraid that if their regime survives, especially if it's under Mojtaba Khamenei, we might see an even more hard-line state, more committed to not just continuing the core strategic goals of Iran -- meaning its missiles, nuclear, regional ambitions -- but we might also see a regime which might take more risks in comparison to [that under] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
For example, we know that throughout the years under Khamenei, Iran was certainly moving forward toward reaching a nuclear threshold state, but Khamenei didn't make a decision to break out.
My concern is that someone like Mojtaba might take the risk of breaking out, especially after realizing that this might be the ultimate deterrence vis-a-vis Israel and the United States.
RFE/RL: If the clerical establishment does remain in control, what will this mean for relations with the Gulf states?
Zimmt: They will realize that if this regime is still intact, they will have to live with that. And President Trump is not going to be here forever. I'm not sure if they can trust the Israelis, because some of them at least consider Israel to be a destabilizing force.
Their conclusion might be: We might have to work with Israel, with the United States. To strengthen our defense systems vis-a-vis the Iranians, we should try to find a way to accommodate with Iran because Iran is here to stay, because the Islamic republic might be here to stay.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Amid Ongoing Absence, Questions Raised About Iran's New Leader
Iran has launched several waves of missiles at Israel, in one of the heaviest bombardments in recent days. But where is its new leader?
- By RFE/RL
Commercial Ships Targeted As Iran Threatens Key Gulf Energy Transit Point
Three vessels were damaged in incidents across the Persian Gulf's key maritime artery, where about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies travel, as Iran continued to launch air attacks around the Middle East.
Commercial ships sailing under the flags of Thailand, Japan, and the Marshall Islands were targeted by unknown projectiles across the Strait of Hormuz, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a shipping security monitor, said on March 11.
While no crew members were reported dead following the attacks, UKMTO advised ships in the Strait of Hormuz to "transit with caution and report any suspicious activity," adding investigations into the incidents were ongoing.
Separately, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it had struck a Liberian-flagged vessel in the Strait Of Hormuz that it claimed was owned by Israel.
Tehran has indicated it considers the ships transferring oil to the United States, Israel, and "their partners" as "legitimate" targets.
"We won't allow even one liter of oil to reach the US, Zionists, and their partners. Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target," said Iran's military command spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari on March 11.
Just off the shores of Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where the shipping lane narrows to a width of less than 4 kilometers, the attacks are the latest in at least a dozen incidents since US and Israeli forces began their military campaign against Iran on February 28. Those attacks have prompted retaliatory strikes by Iran on targets in many neighboring Gulf states.
US Forces 'Eliminated' 16 Iranian Mine-Layers
The flurry of strikes on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz follows US President Donald Trump's earlier warning to Iran in which he demanded Tehran remove any mines in the area or face "military consequences" that will be at "a level never seen before."
"If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait…we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on March 10, adding that US forces would "permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait."
Later in the day, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the American military had "eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels...including 16 minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz."
In a subsequent comment, CENTCOM urged civilians "to immediately avoid all port facilities where Iranian naval forces are operating," saying Tehran was using its civilian infrastructure for military purposes.
As Iran continued its retaliatory strikes aimed at its oil-exporting neighbors, disruptions of shipping in the region plunged the global energy economy into crisis, with oil prices increasing by more than 5 percent on March 11.
Zolfaqari said global trade should prepare for oil prices to rise to "$200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security which you have destabilized."
In response to these developments, President Donald Trump said the United States would tap its strategic oil reserves "a little bit" to help ease price pressures.
"Right now, we'll reduce it a little bit and that brings the prices down," he said in a TV interview. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the world's largest emergency supply of oil products, established in 1975 to be access during times of energy disruptions.
The US Energy Department said the release was part of a wider release of crude by 32 countries belonging to the International Energy Agency. The IEA earlier said members unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves into the market.
"The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale, therefore I am very glad that IEA Member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
The Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations released a statement saying its members have agreed to explore the possibility of aiding transiting ships through the Gulf.
"In this regard, a working group has been set up to explore the possibility of escorting ships when the right security conditions are in place, and this will also come along with approaches made to shipping companies, transport companies, and insurers," said the G7, which consists of the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France.
Erdogan: War 'Must Be Stopped'
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Iran war "must be stopped before it becomes bigger and completely engulfs the region in flames."
"There will be more loss of life and property, and the cost to the global economy will increase even further," Erdogan added, as more Iranian attacks were reported across the Middle East on the 12th day of the war.
UAE's emirate of Dubai said on March 11 that two drones crashed near the city's airport, leaving four people injured -- two citizens of Ghana, one from India, and one from Bangladesh.
Iran Threatens To Target US, Israeli Banks
In a separate development on March 11, Iran announced its forces will target economic centers and banks belonging to the United States and Israel, saying the decision was taken in response to the "enemy" targeting a bank in Iran.
A spokesperson for Khatam al-Anbiya, the Iranian military's joint operational command, called the alleged attack an "illegitimate and unconventional" act in the war that had left Tehran's "hands free to target economic centers and banks belonging to" the United States and Israel "in the region."
The statement urged people in countries where US and Israeli banks are located not to remain within a 1-kilometer radius of them.
While Khatam al-Anbiya's statement did not name the bank or its location, only saying it was struck overnight, Bank Sepah -- one of Iran's largest state-owned banks -- later said one of its branches in Tehran was hit by a missile early in the day.
Separately, Iran's state television channel IRINN reported the employees working in the bank were on the extra shift to prepare March salary payments. According to the report, a "high" number of people were killed in the attack.
There was no immediate comment from the United States or Israel. Later on March 11, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced a new "wide-scale wave of strikes targeting Iranian terror regime infrastructure across Iran."
"Simultaneously, the IDF has begun striking Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut," Israel's military added in a statement published on Telegram.
With reporting by Reuters
Oil, War, And The Strait of Hormuz: Can Washington Safeguard Global Energy Markets From Iran?
WASHINGTON -- As the United States and Israel's conflict with Iran converges on the Strait of Hormuz -- the world's most critical energy chokepoint -- the economic consequences of a major disruption to oil and gas supplies could reverberate around the world.
About a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) normally flows through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to international markets. Yet tanker traffic has slowed sharply amid security concerns, military threats, and reports that Iran is deploying mines and other asymmetric measures to inflict damage on vessels attempting to use the strait.
Already the market response has been seen: Oil surged toward $120 per barrel before retreating slightly while aviation fuel prices remain around double the levels seen in January.
For analysts, these swings underscore a fundamental question: Can Tehran leverage the global energy system as a strategic weapon, or can the United States and its partners prevent that scenario?
The US military said it knocked out 16 Iranian mine-laying ships near the Strait of Hormuz on March 10. But Iran still appeared capable of wreaking havoc in the waterway, with three commercial vessels reportedly hit by explosions on March 11, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a British naval coordination center that monitors security threats to commercial shipping.
Markets Reacting To Risk, Not Supply
So far, analysts said the market appears to be pricing in uncertainty rather than actual supply disruptions.
"What we're seeing is minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour market reactions to the scale and duration of the conflict," said Mason Hamilton, vice president for economics and research at the American Petroleum Institute.
Before the crisis, oil markets anticipated a supply glut and relatively low prices. The sudden threat to the Strait of Hormuz -- through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum liquids move daily -- upended that outlook.
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) note that markets often move ahead of physical shortages.
Kevin Book, the think tank's senior analyst, said traders are preparing for the possibility that Gulf producers could be forced to halt production if exports stall.
Even modest price swings carry enormous financial consequences: a $30 per barrel shift in a market of 100 million barrels per day represents roughly $3 billion in daily value changes, excluding derivatives.
Iran's Asymmetric Leverage
For Tehran, targeting global energy flows may be among the few strategic options it has left against far more powerful adversaries like the United States.
"Iran's objective is survival," said Khalid Azim, director of the MENA Futures Lab at the Atlantic Council. "It cannot confront the US or Israel head on, so it relies on asymmetric tactics to raise the cost of conflict."
Even minor disruptions in the Strait can have outsized effects, given the concentration of global energy trade in a handful of maritime chokepoints.
Azim warned that current market reactions may underestimate the risks, noting financial markets outside energy have remained relatively calm.
"There is a lot of asymmetric risk that the market is not fully pricing," he said.
Washington's Calculus: Pressure Without A Shock
For the United States, the challenge is balancing military objectives with the imperative to prevent a global energy shock.
US President Donald Trump has said Washington is ready to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, although media outlets -- including Reuters -- have reported that the US Navy has so far has refused all shipping industry requests for military escorts because of the current high risk.
Meanwhile, officials from the Group of Seven (G7) nations are also talking about the potential release of emergency oil stockpiles to soften the market impact of any halt in energy flows because of the situation.
Richard Goldberg, a former Trump administration National Security Council official, said the US strategy combines market tools and military measures: insurance guarantees for shipping, encouragement of tanker movements, and naval escort operations if necessary. Carrier strike groups and missile-defense assets are already in position.
"The goal is to show Iran it cannot successfully choke off global oil flows without facing overwhelming countermeasures," Goldberg told an Atlantic Council event on March 10.
He emphasized that efforts are designed to mitigate disruption, not replace a major supply corridor indefinitely.
Even if production continues, the crisis exposes the fragility of energy logistics.
"There are two layers of risk: the infrastructure that produces barrels and the flow of those barrels," said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International. Refineries have been shut as a precaution, storage tanks are filling, and some producers have already curtailed output as exports slow.
Shipping companies face their own dilemma: Insurance alone may not compel crews to navigate a war zone. Extended delays could force Gulf producers to shut in millions of barrels, amplifying market instability.
The Strait of Hormuz also channels roughly 20 percent of global LNG, meaning disruptions could ripple through electricity, petrochemical, and fertilizer supply chains.
Asia, as the largest Gulf oil importer, is particularly exposed. Europe, reliant on LNG and refined products, faces vulnerability at a moment of low gas reserves after winter.
Restarting facilities after shutdowns can take weeks or months. "These are complex industrial systems designed to run continuously," Hamilton noted.
The crisis is unfolding amid a broader shift in US energy strategy. With the United States now the world's largest oil and gas producer, energy supply is increasingly treated as a strategic asset, giving policymakers leverage to pursue security objectives while cushioning domestic markets.
Duration Will Decide the Stakes
The crisis's severity hinges on how long disruptions persist. A brief interruption may be absorbed, but prolonged closure, according to Washington analysts, could keep oil prices above $100 per barrel, stoke inflation, slow economic growth, or even trigger recession in vulnerable economies.
CSIS experts note that while inventories, alternative routes, and emergency reserves provide buffers, they are designed for short-term disruptions, not a protracted shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.
The unfolding confrontation is a test of the global energy system's resilience. Sustained Iranian pressure could prolong instability, while effective US and allied measures could demonstrate the limits of energy coercion.
For now, the key question remains: Will the Strait of Hormuz remain open or become the epicenter of a new energy war?
- By Ray Furlong and
- Alex Raufoglu
US And Israel United In War, Divided On What Comes Next
TEL AVIV -- Driving past the gleaming skyscrapers of downtown Tel Aviv, a huge video billboard catches the eye as the advertisement switches from groceries to a giant portrait of the US president with the caption: "Thank you, God and Donald Trump!"
The tribute bears witness to Israeli gratitude for America's role in the military strikes on Iran. Israeli officials have repeatedly stressed that the two countries are in lockstep.
"The cooperation is historic between the US military and the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and between the Israeli Air Force and the US Air Force," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 6 in an example of how the two countries are on the same page.
There is indeed extremely close military and political coordination. But there are also areas where priorities differ.
When Does This End?
For years, Netanyahu has pushed the idea of regime change in Iran and still appears committed to that aim.
"Our aspiration is to enable the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny," he said on March 9.
But most analysts believe regime change cannot be achieved quickly, so Trump's statement later that day, that the war could be over " very soon," raised the question: What if America's choice of an end date is earlier than Israel's?
"The United States is the one who leads when it comes to that end date. Israel is willing to continue these attacks against the Islamic regime. We're also engaged against Hezbollah, an Islamic regime proxy in Lebanon. We would like to continue that. But we'll stop when the US says we need to stop," Miri Eisin, a former deputy head of the Israeli military's Combat Intelligence Corps, told RFE/RL on March 10.
"There were very clear aims of regime change, and you're not seeing that. But let's be realistic about it. There's the rhetoric of politicians and there's the reality of the military. For the military, every additional day [means] more targets. For the politicians, they make their own decisions," added Eisin, now a fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University in Tel Aviv.
War Aims
In fact, it is not entirely clear whether regime change is even one of the US objectives.
When US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listed US war aims a few hours after RFE/RL spoke to Eisin, he didn't even mention it.
"One: Destroy their missile stockpiles, their missile launchers, and their defense industrial base, missiles and their ability to make them. Two: Destroy their navy. And three: Permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons forever," Hegseth said as he went through the goals of the conflict.
Trump has spoken of "unconditional surrender" and said regime change would be "the best thing that could happen."
He said on March 10 that he was "disappointed" that the Iranian regime chose Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his late father as supreme leader but declined to say what the United States might do about it.
RFE/RL has spoken to a number of US congressional aides focused on national security in Washington who have voiced concern about a potential disconnect on this and other issues.
"One government appears to be pursuing regime collapse," a Republican aide said on condition of anonymity. "The other says it isn't -- except when it does. And that's the rub. On key objectives, we're not entirely in sync."
In any war, the timeline usually depends on the aims being pursued. Following the three objectives listed by Hegseth, victory can be declared without regime change.
Some analysts argue the United States may prefer an earlier end to operations than Israel if oil prices rise too much because the two countries have a different pain-tolerance level in this regard.
Sarit Zehavi, head of Tel Aviv think-tank Alma, said Iran's war strategy -- and its attacks on the Gulf states -- was focused on just this.
"The interest was to create a situation that America will not finish the job. To create a situation that the Gulf countries will ask Trump to stop," she said.
Oil
There have also been some hints of divergence on military targets, with Washington reportedly unhappy at an Israeli strike on an Iranian oil facility which showered Tehran in black rain a few days ago.
Asked about this on March 10, Hegseth said hitting the oil sites "wasn't necessarily our objective."
But he rejected the idea that Israel was pulling the United States into operations that go against Washington's interests: "We're not getting pulled in any direction. We're leading, the president is leading."
On Capitol Hill, another aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, cautioned: "Destroying oil fields can spiral energy markets. Israel sees it as crippling Iran's ability to fund war, but for the US there's a risk we drag the global economy into the conflict. It's a tactical win with strategic costs."
On March 9, influential Republican Senator Lindsey Graham spelled it out in a social media post. "Please be cautious about what targets you select," he wrote, adding that the oil economy would be crucial for Iran's reconstruction.
But Yoel Guzonsky, a former member of Israel's National Security Council, said his country's strikes on Iranian oil facilities had in fact been a calibrated warning shot.
"Both the US and Israel are being very careful not to hit the main oil installations with Iran because they know that Iran's retaliation might be in the Gulf states, and then we'll see a different scenario," he said, referring to the danger of future Iranian strikes on Gulf-state oil industry targets.
"Iran didn't even scratch the oil fields and the gas fields in the Gulf," he added. "Perhaps Iran is saving itself another escalatory step toward a longer war."
Hezbollah
The issue of Hezbollah, designated as a terrorist organization the United States, also suggests Israel and the White House have slightly different priorities in this war. For Washington, hitting Iran is top of the agenda. In Israel, Hezbollah is a threat that's much closer to home.
"People don't think about the fact that I drive up north, and I live up north, and you can be 100 meters, let alone a kilometer or two, from these different sites that Hezbollah is firing from. So, for us, that's a very near and present danger," Eisin told RFE/RL.
There have been numerous Israeli media reports and analyst predictions in recent days that a much larger ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon may be being prepared.
But, Eisin added, this was not diverting Israel's attention from the war with Iran. Eisin said Israel was mostly using different kinds of forces in Lebanon and was also attacking Iranian targets there.
"Israel openly attacked a few days ago, at the heart of Beirut, an Islamic regime Quds force…. So, you see that combo here. We're attacking the Islamic regime, different types of terror army capabilities, both in Lebanon and in Iran," she said.
But for Washington, the calculus is different. "From a US perspective, Hezbollah is a proxy problem, rather than a direct existential threat," one congressional aide said.
- By Mike Eckel
Random Numbers, Persian Code: A Mysterious Signal Transfixes Radio Sleuths -- And Intelligence Experts
The radio signal first started broadcasting on February 28, about 12 hours after the United States and Israel began bombing Iran.
On a scratchy shortwave signal almost twice a day -- in the early morning and early evening on Coordinated Universal Time -- a man's voice can be heard speaking Persian, counting out a series of apparently random numbers. The numbers are read out for varying stretches of time, followed by a pause in which the word tavajjoh -- which translates as "attention" -- is spoken three times.
The mystery of the transmission transfixed many in the global community of amateur radio sleuths, who have traded notes and tips on the signal, who's behind it, and what its purpose might be.
Five days later, it got more interesting.
Beginning on March 4, the signal started to be jammed, with a cacophonous screech of electronic noise that made it all but impossible to hear the numbers. The original transmission paused for a period of time, then moved to another shortwave frequency.
"It's interesting because it started to be jammed on the initial frequency," said Akin Fernandez, who is widely considered an authority on the decades-old encoded radio technology known as a numbers station. "Someone doesn't want the recipient [of the signal] to hear the numbers."
"It's an adversarial situation, two groups acting against one another. The question [is] who has the technical means to jam a station," Fernandez said. "The United States has the means, which means this is being transmitted by Iran. Or then it could be Iran, which means the United States is the transmission source."
"More likely this is an operation against Iran," he said.
'Absolutely Unbreakable'
Regardless of whose transmission it is and who is doing the jamming -- there are plenty of competing theories -- the mysterious broadcast is a throwback to another era, before the advent of digital encryption used widely in apps like WhatsApp and Signal and other places.
The transmission is called a numbers station, a Cold War-era tool that employs radio transmissions and old-school cryptology to transmit secret messages, usually to spies around the world.
The concept: Using a random series of a numbers, generated by some mechanical or electronic device or something more powerful, a person can send a coded message to another person in possession of a decoder, often called a "one-time pad."
Anyone can listen to the transmission; shortwave transmissions travel long distances, signals bouncing off the atmosphere. But only a person with the decoder key can decipher it. The concept got a cameo in the US spy drama The Americans, set in the 1980s.
Numbers station code is "absolutely unbreakable," said Fernandez, who more than two decades ago published a four-CD audio compendium of hundreds of recordings from around the world called the Conet Project. It's considered the Bible for numbers-station enthusiasts.
"The number keys that are used are perfectly random. There are no mathematical operations you can use on them to brute force them," he said. "And even if the answer gets out, say in proper English, it's not necessarily understandable."
"You can't tell anything about a random set of letters or numbers by their length other than their length. The length of message is not the content of the information being transmitted," he said. "But it is possible to infer the purpose of stations by the length that they're online and the noise they transmit if there is no text message."
The Persian language broadcast is the first new numbers station in years, according to Priyom, a blog run by radio enthusiasts who identified, cataloged, and analyzed the signal. The transmission was first dubbed V32 by a British-based group called Enigma2000. US-based reporter Seth Hettena also highlighted the signal in a blog post on March 4.
The group says its far-flung members have been able to triangulate the origin of the signal's transmitter: "somewhere in an area encompassing northern Italy, Switzerland, western Germany, eastern France, Belgium, and the Netherlands."
That narrowed the possibilities for the owner of the V32 transmission.
And then the jamming started.
Bubble Jammer
During the Cold War, broadcasts such as those from the BBC, Deutsche Welle, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, among others, were routinely jammed by Soviet bloc authorities who wanted to discourage citizens from getting uncensored information: news about their own countries, or, say, jazz and rock music from the West.
You drown out the incoming broadcast with dissonant noise, something known as a bubble jammer.
On March 4, according to Priyom, a bubble jammer started broadcasting noise on the same shortwave frequency as the original V32 broadcast, rendering it difficult to understand.
The V32 transmissions were interrupted briefly and then switched to another nearby frequency, Priyom said.
"At first the station was thought to be a spy station for the Iran Islamic regime, but when the bubble jammer appeared to jam it, it was an eye-opener," said Mauno Ritalo, a database administrator at the Radio Data Center, a German-based radio company.
"It is exactly the same kind of bubble jammer that is used against Radio Farda, VOA Farsi, Iran International TV shortwave relay, and BBC Farsi," he said. "Even Radio Free Iran suffered from it one night."
Radio Farda is the Persian-language service for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, also known as RFE/RL.
As for the source of the transmission, the global radio community has competing theories; many appear to home in on the United States as the originator, potentially sending coded messages to agents within Iran.
Other theories focus on Israel or even Turkey, which is not a participant in the US-Israeli campaign but is a long-established regional rival to Tehran.
Or, the Priyom bloggers posited, it could be a psychological operation: "a pretty visible, single-frequency station, starting up out of nowhere for a prime-time show on the first day of the war, with relatively few reliability features to ensure recipients actually could copy messages in their entirety and without errors."
The CIA did not immediately respond to an e-mailed query from RFE/RL.
Further muddying the waters: ABC News on March 9 reported that the US government had sent an alert to law enforcement agencies regarding "intercepted encrypted communications."
The report did not specify what exactly the transmission was, or whether it was a numbers station signal.
"While the exact contents of these transmissions cannot currently be determined, the sudden appearance of a new station with international rebroadcast characteristics warrants heightened situational awareness," ABC quoted the alert as saying.
RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi contributed to this report.
White House Says Trump Will Determine When Iran Has Surrendered
US President Donald Trump will determine what constitutes "unconditional surrender" by Iran in the face of US-Israeli bombardment, the White House said on March 10, amid questions about how long the war may last.
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt's comments came on what US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned would be the "most intense day of strikes inside Iran," and in the wake of a statement by Trump that the campaign would end "very soon."
"Ultimately, the operations will end when the commander-in-chief determines the military objectives have been met, fully realized, and that Iran is in [a position of] complete and unconditional surrender – whether they say it or not," Leavitt told reporters.
On March 7, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that there would be "will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!"
Trump is "not claiming that the Iranian regime is going to come out and say it themselves," Leavitt said, adding that he "will determine when Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender when they no longer pose a direct and credible threat to the United States and our allies."
At a new conference and in interviews with multiple media outlets on March 9, Trump made several remarks that suggested the war could end soon. The comments eased concerns on financial markets, partially reversing a steep drop in share prices the previous day and pushing the price of oil down after a sharp rise.
Uncertainty persisted, however, and Hegseth telegraphed a day of heavy strikes on March 10. He said the objective is to destroy Iranian missiles and its military production capabilities, as well as to destroy Iran's navy.
Reports on social media described attacks early on March 10 as more intense and broader in scope than previous attacks, with explosions reported in cities including Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, Zanjan, Tabriz, Arak, Shahinshahr, Bushehr, Bandar Lengeh, and Qeshm.
Daily US and Israeli air strikes against Iran began on February 28, with Tehran responding by spraying drones and ballistic missiles around the Gulf region, sparking concerns about a broader war breaking out and driving the global price of oil through the key $100 a barrel level.
At a March 10 news conference, Hegseth said Iran's retaliatory strikes are waning, and General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Pentagon was looking at a range of options if it is tasked with escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut by the conflict.
The shipping lane is a chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas transport. The war has forced oil and gas producers to halt shipping for more than a week, and Tehran has said no Gulf oil will pass through the waterway.
On March 10, Trump warned in a social media post that if Iran has placed any mines in the Strait of Hormuz "and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before."
"If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," Trump said in a separate post.
Caine said the United States has carried out strikes against more than 5,000 targets in the first 10 days of the campaign, including against more than 50 naval ships.
"They're [Iranians] fighting, and I respect that, but I don't think they're more formidable than what we thought," Caine said.
At least 1,700 people -- including military members -- have died in Iran, according to the HRANA human rights group, since joint US-Israeli strikes began on February 28.
Along with the length of the campaign, another question is whether the US and Israel will take action against Mojtaba Khamenei, whom Iranian clerics chose to replace his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in strikes on the first day of the operation, as supreme leader.
Trump had called for a US say in the selection of a new leader, dismissed Mojtaba Khamenei as "unacceptable" for the role, and on March 9 called his selection "a big mistake." He did not say what the US and Israel might do about it and declined to answer when asked if the new leader had "a target on his back."
- By Ray Furlong
Sleeping On A Subway Platform To Evade Iranian Missiles In Tel Aviv
TEL AVIV -- For Aviad Apirion, a 40-year-old teacher at a special needs school, the war with Iran has meant sleeping every night at an underground railway station to avoid the danger of incoming Iranian ballistic missiles.
And he's got plenty of company. The platform of the gleaming new station in a Tel Aviv suburb is crammed with mattresses -- and people of all nations.
"It's like a fairground for the kids here. For me, it's quite tricky but I prefer my children to be in a safe place, so I am with them here. I have a safe room at home, but I don't trust it since these are ballistic missiles. I don't feel safe," Apirion told RFE/RL.
Apirion has slept here with his two children, aged 7 and 9, since the first night of the war. As we speak, we're surrounded by other kids, who bombard our reporting team with questions.
"They all became friends with each other here," said Apirion, with a chuckle that belied the anxiety of wartime circumstances. The children amuse themselves by playing on the elevators, running freely around the station, or on their phones.
"You also have here people of many faiths. Jews, Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists," Apirion said.
Missile Alerts On Phones
A few steps down the platform, a group of Indian men are sat around a chess board. Some of them work in Israel's large care sector, others in construction. Sooriya Narayana Reddy told RFE/RL he arrived in this country a month ago and hopes to receive political asylum, without elaborating.
"Sleeping here, there are big spaces [for us]. We are near to our room, actually. That's why we came here," he said, his words interrupted by the blaring of another incoming missile alert on our phone apps.
Usually, this would be a sign to stop what we're doing and head for a shelter. But we're already in one, so the conversation continues. The big advantage to sleeping down here, Narayana Reddy said, is uninterrupted sleep.
"We are sleeping peacefully. We turn off our phones overnight," he said.
Under Israeli law, all modern residential buildings must come with a purpose-built shelter. But in Tel Aviv, there are many old buildings. Public shelters are available but are far less spacious and have sparse interiors, often without Internet access or cellphone signal.
By contrast, the subway network, known as Tel Aviv Light Rail, dates from 2023 and is in mint condition. All trains have been stopped since Israel launched mass air strikes on Iran on February 28 so that people can sleep at the stations.
The network was also used for this purpose during the 12-day war that Israel and the United States fought against Iran in June 2025.
But still, it's not home.
One level above the platform, a group of Moldovans are camping out in the ticket hall. A woman who identified herself only as Olessya was with her partner and her pet parrot, which hopped between her head and her shoulder.
'It's Unsettling And Scary For Everyone'
"We're not sleeping so well here. Not like at home. It's cold, a concrete [floor]; we're getting sick. We're not eating in good conditions. We're worried about what's happening outside. It's unsettling and scary for everyone," she said.
"We've slept here since February 28 because our house doesn't have a shelter, so we have to come here," she added.
Nearby, another man identifies himself simply as Yousuf. A 19-year-old refugee from Cote D'Ivoire, he said he had spent most of his life in Israel and was waiting for citizenship.
"I never sleep here. Some of my friends do," he said. "People are sleeping here because of the war. I don't know when it's going to end, but I hope it's soon."
This is a sentiment many people agree with.
"I am afraid for my loved ones," said Apirion, the special needs teacher, as we parted. "It's the same fear for all of us, for every person. We want to protect our family, our home, our friends -- people that we love."
In Israel, which has state-of-the-art air defenses, there have been 14 civilian fatalities as of March 9. Nine of these were in a single strike by an Iranian ballistic missile at Beit Shemesh, about 30 kilometers west of Jerusalem, after a direct hit on a housing block.
Drones and rockets are also being fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States.
- By Ray Furlong
Israeli Opposition Leader Yair Lapid Tells RFE/RL Iran's Oil ‘Lifeline' Must Be Cut
TEL AVIV -- Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition in Israel, says air strikes on Iranian oil fields --which have showered Tehran in black rain -- were needed to cut the “lifeline of the regime” in Iran.
Speaking to RFE/RL at a downtown location hit on March 8 by falling debris from an intercepted Iranian missile, Lapid also indicated that Israel reserves the right to strike any new supreme leader who takes power following the death last weekend of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“It depends who is the leader,” he said. “This is our way of protecting ourselves from death and destruction. Because, you know, this is what this regime is.”
Lapid, who was Israel's prime minister for several months in 2022 before Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office, has strongly backed the Israeli government’s decision to launch airstrikes on Iran on February 28, which included those that killed Khamenei.
The body in charge of selecting Iran's new supreme leader said on March 8 it had reached a decision on a new leader, but did not immediately reveal the name of the choice.
US President Donald Trump said earlier on March 8 that any new supreme leader "is not going to last long" without White House approval.
Lapid's support comes despite the bitter battles he has fought against Netanyahu on domestic policies and the Gaza Strip.
“I can't remember a time when we stood that united and that determined,” he said, praising the “spirit of the Israeli people.”
RFE/RL has approached Netanyahu’s Likud party for comment. In recent days, Likud lawmakers and ministers have rarely given media interviews.
Netanyahu's Televised Address
In a televised addressed on March 7, Netanyahu said Israel had an "organized plan with many surprises" in store. Netanyahu told Israelis the campaign would "destabilize the regime" and that "the moment of truth is drawing near."
In his role of official opposition leader, Lapid gets security briefings directly from Netanyahu.
Asked whether Netanyahu’s remarks meant that regime-change was imminent in Iran, Lapid said “I find it hard to believe that there is a real possibility for regime change with airstrikes."
"I think ‘boots-on-the-ground’ is not inevitable, but maybe it's not the greatest idea. What we are doing now is creating the conditions or enabling the people of Iran to change their own fate,” the 62-year-old added.
A part of this, he said, were strikes on Iran’s oil industry. Israel made what appeared to be its first attack on oil facilities on March 7. The next morning, dark, polluted clouds clogged the sky and black rain fell on Tehran.
“This is where the money is coming from. They spent the last...40 years building nuclear sites instead of building an economy for themselves. So, what they have is those oil sites. So, eliminating them will help cutting the lifeline of the regime,” Lapid said.
'Heartbreaking' Civilian Deaths In Iran
The current US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have decapitated the country’s clerical leadership and substantially weakened its military.
They have also caused civilian casualties.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says more than 1,200 civilians have been killed, including nearly 200 children. In Israel, which has state-of-the-art air defenses, there have been 12 civilian fatalities.
Asked about the toll on civilians, Lapid pointed to the damaged building behind him.
“Look around you. Where are we? This is not a military site, right? So. the Iranians are intentionally trying to kill civilians,” he said.
“Sometimes bystanders and the innocent are killed, especially when it's children. It's heartbreaking. Children should not die in grown-ups' wars. Yet it's a mistake. Here, they are doing it intentionally.”
- By Kian Sharifi
Wladimir Van Wilgenburg: Kurdish Groups Need US 'Guarantees' Before Iran Offensive
The United States is considering arming Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in neighboring Iraq, according to reports, with the aim of fomenting an uprising inside the Islamic republic.
The possibility of the United States supplying weapons to the exiled groups and supporting potential cross-border ground attacks in western Iran comes amid a joint US-Israeli aerial campaign against Tehran, launched on February 28.
US President Donald Trump on March 5 encouraged the over half a dozen exiled Iranian Kurdish groups to attack Iran. "I think it's wonderful that they want to do that. I'd be all for it," he said.
Tehran has responded by intensifying attacks on camps and bases operated by the Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region.
Trump appeared to walk back his comments on March 8, telling reporters that he does "not want the Kurds to go into Iran" because the war is "complicated enough as it is."
RFE/RL spoke to Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an on-the-ground reporter and analyst specializing in Kurdish affairs who said the Iranian Kurdish groups are deeply cautious about becoming entangled in the US-Israeli war on Iran.
RFE/RL: What considerations do you think these Kurdish groups are weighing before launching their offensive into Iran?
Wladimir van Wilgenburg: These Kurdish groups will not launch an offensive if they don't have any guarantees for any form of political recognition. We saw with the Kurds in Syria that the US didn't give any promises. After there was no more need for them to fight ISIS [the Islamic State extremist group], they were abandoned, and the US administration worked with the new authorities in Damascus.
The Kurds in Iran don't want a repetition of that scenario where they basically fight the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps] and, when the war is over, the US administration says it was just a transactional relationship and 'bye-bye.'
RFE/RL: Do you think there is going to be an incursion?
Van Wilgenburg: There has been no incursion. The gist [of it] is that the Kurdish groups are preparing for such an offensive and have had some talks with US officials. I don't know on what level, whether government or military, but they're just in an exploration phase of relations.
I don't think there have been any decisions so far to go inside [Iran]. We also saw statements by Iraqi Kurdish officials saying they don't want to be part of this regional war [and are] calling for calm. Today, there was a statement by a senior defense official in Iran threatening Iraqi Kurdistan, saying if any of those groups cross, the retaliation will be very heavy.
RFE/RL: If they do eventually launch an offensive, what is the ultimate goal? Is it regime change, or a push for an independent Kurdistan?
Van Wilgenburg: The Kurds in Iran have always had a historical focus on autonomy. They are not focused on an independent Kurdish state. What they want is a federal Iran with democracy, secularism, and autonomy for Iranian Kurds.
There's no goal to separate. Their idea is to go only to the Kurdish areas -- not like in Syria, where Kurdish forces went to non-Kurdish areas like Deir al-Zor and Raqqa. The idea is to create a sort of safe haven for the Iranian opposition.
Currently, there are calls for defections [from the state] and protests [against the authorities], but there's no safe haven for the opposition to go to. It would be similar to how the Iraqi Kurdish opposition was hosted in [Iran's] Kurdistan Province in the 1990s.
RFE/RL: Regarding Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), if Iranian Kurds decide to launch an incursion, would the KRG have the power or the desire to stop them?
Van Wilgenburg: Most of the bases for these Iranian Kurdish parties are in [the regional capital] Erbil and Sulaymaniyah Province, so they are quite dependent on the KRG's tolerance. One reason they are tolerated is the understanding that they would not carry out armed action.
There was also an agreement between Baghdad and Tehran in 2023 to disarm these parties, which is why some camps are currently empty. However, you have groups who are not dependent on the KRG because they control their own areas in the mountains. The other parties are very close to urban areas in the Kurdistan region and are more restricted.
RFE/RL: Were those groups actually disarmed as part of that 2023 agreement?
Van Wilgenburg: There were a lot of conflicting media reports about that in the Kurdish media, but there has been no official confirmation.
RFE/RL: Given the history, how wary are these groups of working with the United States as a partner?
Van Wilgenburg: They are worried it could be a transactional relationship, so they prefer guarantees. They have their own issues with the Islamic republic, but they aren't going to risk a fight if they would lose everything.
History shows this: The Mahabad Republic [a short-lived and unrecognized Kurdish state] collapsed after Soviet support ended, and after the 1979 revolution, [Islamic republic founder Ruhollah] Khomeini launched a military operation against the Kurds after they had taken control of their areas.
They fear a new centralist government in Tehran might do the same. They want guarantees that it will be a federal state, similar to the relationship between the Kurdistan region and the central government in Baghdad.
RFE/RL: Do the Kurds currently have the weaponry to cause significant trouble for the Islamic republic?
Van Wilgenburg: Their numbers are not that large, but the situation can change quickly. In Syria, the Kurdish groups started small and grew into the SDF [Syrian Defense Forces], which is over 100,000-strong. If they go inside and get US air support and weapons, it would be very easy to crush [Iran's] defenses in Kurdish-majority areas.
Most IRGC and Basij [paramilitary] soldiers there are not native to the area. If Iran doesn't control the airspace, it will be very difficult for them to hold those areas, even with their advanced drones and ballistic missiles. Kurdish officials say they could take these areas in a very short period if there is a US decision to support them.
RFE/RL: Is there any truth to reports that the United States or Israel are already arming these groups?
Van Wilgenburg: There is a lot of speculation based on anonymous sources. On the ground, you don't see any new weapons. The fighters still have their old Kalashnikovs. There are no physical or public signs yet. But logically, if there is a decision to support them, they will be armed.
The US did that with the Iraqi opposition, the Kurds in Syria, and via CIA programs for other rebels. Such programs could be repeated, but there are no signs of those arms in the hands of Iranian Kurds yet.
- By Ray Furlong
Iranian Jews In Israel Speak Of Pain And Hope Amid Conflict
TEL AVIV -- Bijan Bahordari has two flags in the window of his fast-food restaurant: the blue-and-white Israeli Star of David and that of pre-revolutionary Iran, the green-white-red tricolor with a golden lion and sun in the center.
After ladling stuffed peppers, rice, and a rich red sauce into a takeaway container for a customer, he stopped to talk about what it's like to witness his adopted homeland at war with the land of his birth.
"I wish and I hope that they finish the regime now. And I am waiting to go back there. Seventeen years, I lived there. And I remember everything," he told RFE/RL. "In the morning, I check my phone, the radio, the TV -- it doesn't matter what."
Bahordari left Iran as a teenager to go traveling in 1978. While he was away, the Shah of Iran was toppled and the Islamic republic was established. Bahordari has never returned.
He's now married in Israel, has children, and for 10 years has been running the New Food Of Life cafe at Levinsky Market, an area dotted with Persian businesses.
There are an estimated 250,000 Iranian Jews in Israel, defined as Jews born in Iran plus second and third generations. Bahordari is slightly unusual, since he moved here before the Islamic Revolution. Most others came afterward.
One such Iranian is the owner of a shop selling nuts and dried fruit a few steps from Bahordari's business. Identifying himself simply as Meir, he said he had come to Israel in 1979. The current war, he said, left him with mixed feelings -- but also hope.
"It's very strange. Everything is strange. We attack each other. But it is for a good cause. The Iranian people are suffering. Their government is evil, very bad for all the world -- not just for Iran," he said, switching from English to Hebrew to make his point clearly.
But while he is hopeful about the future, he also acknowledged the dangers of the current situation -- not only that there are civilian casualties in Iran, but also that regime change could have unpredictable and potentially violent consequences of its own.
"I would be very disappointed and sad if it turns out like that. Not just me, a lot of people all over the world. We are strongly connected via social networks. We're all praying. We all applaud," he said.
Listing a roll-call of countries where the Iranian diaspora is scattered, he said that earlier "they were afraid to speak out. But now, they feel confident. We are expecting the regime to fall."
Iran still has a Jewish population. Estimates of its size vary from a few thousand people to somewhere in the 10,000 to 20,000 range. This population was much higher prior to 1979.
Many Jews fled in the aftermath of the revolution as the new authorities adopted a sharp anti-Israel stance, including not recognizing Israel's right to exist. The 1979 execution of Habib Elghanian, a prominent figure in the Tehran Jewish community, helped further prompt an exodus to Israel and other countries, particularly the United States.
Part of that exodus was Nicola, who was 9 years old when her family left Iran in 1979. Now a holistic therapist in Jerusalem, she recalled being told at 10 o'clock one night that she would be leaving the next morning. She said she was allowed to take three items.
Nicola chose not to give her surname because of concerns for the safety of her mother, now aged 77, who chose to stay in Iran and is still there now.
"One eye is crying and the other eye is happy," she said, about the current situation.
"I'm praying that after 47 years the regime will fall…. I'm crying because I know the price that people in Iran are paying," she added.
Back at Bahordari's Tel Aviv cafe, he pointed to a wall of photos showing famous guests including Israeli actors and singers. The wall also features portraits of the late shah and his wife.
With tears welling in his eyes, Bahordari revealed his dream.
"I will make another restaurant -- very big -- in Iran. And I'll put the flags of Israel, the United States, and Iran, and [a picture of] the shah, together. It's going to be very, very special," he said.
- By Ray Furlong and
- RFE/RL
Iranian Jews In Israel Hope For Regime Change In Birthland
RFE/RL’s Ray Furlong visits a Persian spice market in Tel Aviv where Iranian Jewish shopkeepers and stallholders say they’re in a “strange” situation -- but hope that the war will bring political change in the land of their birth.
Iran Names Khamenei's Son As New Supreme Leader Despite Trump Warning
Iran has named hard-liner Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader, likely putting him directly in the sights of the US and Israeli militaries.
Iran's Assembly of Experts, responsible for electing the new ruler, said on March 8 that it had "designated and introduced Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei as the third Supreme Leader of the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
As supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei will have final say in all political and military matters and hold near-dictatorial powers.
The appointment also makes him a target for US and Israeli forces, who killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on February 28 as they launched a war against Iran that has spread throughout the region.
'An Unacceptable Choice'
The decision comes after US President Donald Trump earlier called Mojtaba Khamenei -- then seen as the favorite to succeed his father -- an "unacceptable choice" and a "lightweight" and insisted that anyone chosen by Tehran must be acceptable to Washington.
Trump told ABC News that “if he [the next supreme leader] doesn’t get approval from us, he’s not going to last long,” adding that there are “numerous people that could qualify” for the role.
"We don't have to go back every five years and do this again and again...[We seek] somebody that's going to be great for the people, great for the country," Trump said.
In an interview with the Times of Israel shortly after the Khamenei announcement, Trump declined to comment directly on the move, saying only, "We'll see what happens."
Hours before the announcement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warned that “Israel will continue to follow any successor and anyone who seeks to appoint a successor” and that it would “not hesitate to target” any of the dozens of Assembly of Experts members participating in the meeting to choose the successor.
“Iran having a new leader would help them advance their war against us,” IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said on March 8. “Iran not having a leader is something that makes it hard for them to operate the war machine against us.”
Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition in Israel, told RFE/RL in an interview on March 8 that Israel reserves the right to strike any new supreme leader who takes power following the death of Ali Khamenei.
When asked ahead of the announcement whether Israel should attempt to kill the new leader, Lipid said, "Well, it depends on who is the leader."
"I hope they will find something very different from what they have there right now," he said of the Iranian leadership. "What we have there is a terror organization."
Shortly after the Khamenei announcement was made, Iran said it fired a volley of missiles toward Israel.
"Iran fires first wave of missiles under Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei toward occupied territories," state broadcaster IRIB said on its Telegram channel. It also posted a photo of a projectile with the words: "At Your Command, Sayyid Mojtaba."
Defiant Assembly Of Experts
In announcing the decision, Iran's Assembly of Experts appeared defiant, saying it made the choice "despite the acute war situation and direct threats from enemies."
Mojtaba Khamenei was known to have close ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which wields considerable military power in the country, separate from the regular armed forces.
The hard-line IRGC was quick to endorse the choice of the new leader, pledging "allegiance" to him, according to state media. The leaders of the armed forces also pledged to follow Khamenei as the new ruler.
Powerful national-security chief Ali Larijani, also considered a hard-liner, called for unity around the new supreme leader, saying the Assembly made the choice in spite of threats to target the electing body.
Strikes On Iran Continue
Meanwhile, the United States and Israel carried out new air strikes on strategic infrastructure in and around Tehran on March 8, including oil depots and refining facilities, as Israeli forces also expanded their operations beyond Iran.
Large fires were reported at several fuel storage sites in Tehran, sending heavy smoke over parts of the capital. Iranian officials confirmed that multiple oil facilities were damaged, although emergency teams managed to bring some fires under control.
Iran continued to strike back at several Gulf states that are hosting US military assets, despite an apology from President Masud Pezeshkian expressing sorry for earlier attacks on Washington's Arab allies.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, reported new attacks or interceptions of Iranian drones and missiles on March 7 and 8.
Air defense systems across the region were activated to intercept incoming projectiles, with multiple explosions reported as defenses engaged Iranian drones and missiles.
Trump: US 'Not Looking To The Kurds Going In'
In comments a day earlier, Trump said he does not want ethnic Kurds to launch an attack on the Iranian regime. The remarks came after conflicting reports as to whether Trump was encouraging a ground offensive by Iranian Kurdish exiles based in Iraq.
"We're not looking to the Kurds going in," he told reporters aboard Air Force One. "We're very friendly with the Kurds, as you know, but we don't want to make the war any more complex than it already is."
"I don't want to see the Kurds get hurt and killed. They're willing to go in, but I've told them I don't want them going in. The war's complicated enough without getting the Kurds involved," he said.
On March 5, Trump had told Reuters he would be "all for" an offensive by Iranian Kurdish fighters in support of the US-Israeli effort.
- By Frud Bezhan
With Top Brass Dead, Iran Deploys Decentralized 'Mosaic' Strategy To Boost Defenses
Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has decentralized its command-and-control structure, handing junior ranks more power to respond to the massive US-Israeli aerial bombardment of the Islamic republic.
The joint air campaign that began on February 28 has killed numerous senior military and political leaders, including IRGC chief Mohammad Pakpour and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had the final say on all matters of the state.
With its leadership decimated, Iran has activated a so-called mosaic defensive strategy, which is designed to empower local IRGC commanders during wartime. While boosting the resilience of Iran's armed forces, the strategy also raises the risks of miscalculation, experts say.
"It is designed to help the local provincial IRGC and their accompanying Basij elements to defend against an outside invading force," said Farzin Nadimi, a defense specialist at the Washington Institute.
The IRGC, the elite branch of Iran's armed forces and the backbone of the country's theocracy, is believed to have around 150,000 troops, with army, navy, and air units. It also commands the volunteer Basij paramilitary force, which is estimated to have around 1 million members.
Decentralization has been a key part of the IRGC's doctrine since around 2009, when the force was reorganized. Each of Iran's 31 provinces has its own IRGC headquarters, command-and-control structure, and chain of command.
"Every province is a mosaic, and the commanders have the ability and power to make decisions," said Nadimi. "So, when they are cut off from their command in Tehran, they can still be able to function as a cohesive military force."
Speaking to Al Jazeera TV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on March 1 that "our military units are now independent and somehow isolated, and they are acting based on instructions -- general instructions -- given to them in advance."
Doctrine Holding For Now
The approach appears to be working for now. Iran has responded to heavy US and Israeli bombardment by firing unprecedented barrages of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones at Israel, US military and diplomatic facilities across the Middle East, and critical energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
"That implies the command-and-control system is still functioning, at least for now," said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The region is likely to experience an ongoing Iranian retaliation campaign for as long as there are missiles and launchers there."
But it is unclear if the IRGC can maintain cohesion as the United States and Israel strike the country's military infrastructure, including its stockpiles of short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, and target mid-ranking provincial commanders.
If the IRGC runs out of missiles or if most of its facilities are damaged or destroyed, the force has "few capabilities beyond their strategic deterrents," said Bruchmann.
Iranian forces rely heavily on missiles and drones, and "with their production facilities above ground hit, the capacity to replenish stocks is at least in doubt," he added.
'Double-Edged Sword'
Iran's mosaic strategy is designed to make the IRGC more resilient. But the decentralized command-and-control structure could also fuel chaos, experts say.
"Decentralized military units will be more difficult to find and finish off" for the United States and Israel, said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank. "But they will also be less impactful because they won't achieve critical mass."
"Some of the more disciplined and elite units will be able to stay in the fight, while other, less experienced units will fall victim to confusion and disorder," added Clarke. "I would also suspect that the US and Israel are waging a psychological operations campaign that will exacerbate this issue for the IRGC."
US President Donald Trump has demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" and called on the country's armed forces to lay down their weapons or face "certain death." He said those who surrendered would be granted immunity.
Experts warn that the decentralized wartime conditions increases the risk of uncoordinated drone and missile strikes and navigation errors that could trigger unintended escalation.
That could help explain Iranian missiles and drones hitting civilian areas like hotels and shopping malls in the Persian Gulf, analysts said.
NATO-member Turkey said it intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile in its border region on March 4. Another of Iran's neighbors, Azerbaijan, accused Tehran of firing drones at an airport in its Nakhchivan region on March 5. In both cases, the head of Iran's armed forces issued unusually direct denials.
- By RFE/RL
Iran War Ripples Across Middle East, Caucasus With New Attacks
The war in Iran is widening across the Middle East and beyond, with incidents stretching from the Persian Gulf to the South Caucasus and raising fears the conflict could escalate into a broader regional confrontation.
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward a base housing US forces on March 7, while Azerbaijan accused Iran-linked operatives of plotting sabotage targeting a major oil pipeline and Jewish sites.
Heavy air strikes were reported in Iran overnight and early on March 7, with Tehran's Mehrabad Airport and the nearby town of Ekbatan both being hit, among other targets.
At the same time, cross-border strikes between Israel and Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon continued and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it had attacked a Maltese-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz using an "explosive drone" as Tehran looks to broaden its response to the US-Israeli military campaign.
The string of developments underscores how a war that began with coordinated US-Israeli air strikes on Iran on February 28 is rippling across neighboring regions, threatening energy infrastructure and raising the possibility of new fronts as the war enters its second week.
Analysts say Tehran's strategy appears aimed at raising the cost of the conflict for Washington.
"The region is likely to experience an ongoing Iranian retaliation campaign for as long as there are missiles and launchers there," Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, told RFE/RL.
But Iran also appears to be moving to quell any regional backlash. In a rare apology on March 7, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said in a video message that he would like to "personally apologize to neighboring countries that were affected by Iran’s actions" as he urged them not to join the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.
He said Iran's temporary leadership council had agreed to suspend attacks on nearby states unless strikes on Iran originated from their territory, but hours later the IRGC Navy launched a drone attack on the US al-Dhafra airbase in the UAE, according to the Tasnim news agency, a semiofficial news agency associated with the IRGC.
The report claims that a US satellite communications center and early-warning and fire-control radars were hit, but RFE/RL was unable to independently verify the attack. The UAE's Defense Ministry said it responded to incoming missile and drone threats from Iran but has not confirmed the attack on the US airbase.
Pezeshkian also rejected US President Donald Trump's demand for "unconditional surrender," saying that "the Americans can take their demand of a surrender of the Iranian people to their graves."
Shortly afterward, Trump announced in a message on his social media that the US military is considering expanding the range of targets inside Iran, including areas and individuals, or "complete destruction and death."
Alleged Iranian Plot To Target Oil Pipeline
Azerbaijan said it had thwarted a plot linked to the IRGC to attack several targets inside the country.
According to a statement from Azerbaijan’s State Security Service released late on March 6, the alleged plan included attacks on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, the Israeli Embassy in Baku, an Ashkenazi synagogue, and a prominent member of Azerbaijan's Mountain Jewish community.
Authorities said two Iranian citizens and one Azerbaijani national were involved in smuggling more than 7 kilograms of C-4 explosives into the country under instructions from the IRGC. Investigators said international arrest warrants had been issued for four suspects.
Iran hasn't publicly responded to the accusations but said earlier this week, after a drone incident, that it isn't seeking to target Azerbaijan.
Any disruption to the pipeline could tighten global energy supplies already rattled by the expanding war.
Tehran has threatened to "set ablaze" any Western tanker attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which provides a vital trade route for about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. At least nine vessels have been attacked since US-Israeli strikes began, according to Lloyd’s List, a maritime intelligence firm.
The BTC pipeline runs through Georgia and Turkey and transports Caspian crude to Mediterranean export terminals, supplying European markets. The route also accounts for roughly a third of Israel's oil imports.
The plot follows another incident earlier this week that heightened tensions between Baku and Tehran. Azerbaijani officials said Iranian drones struck infrastructure in the country’s Nakhchivan exclave on March 5, injuring civilians and damaging an airport.
As Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, the United States condemned it, describing the strikes as a "needless escalation" of aggression.
Attacks Ripple Across The Middle East
Saudi Arabia said on March 7 that it had intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward Prince Sultan Air Base southeast of Riyadh, which hosts US military personnel. The Saudi Defense Ministry said the missile was destroyed before reaching its target.
In a separate attack, Saudi air defenses shot down six drones targeting the Shaybah oil field near the border with the United Arab Emirates, according to the state-run Saudi Press Agency. Officials said the drones were intercepted over the Empty Quarter desert in the south of the country.
The attacks follow several earlier drone strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure this week, including attempted attacks on the Ras Tanura refinery on the kingdom’s eastern coast.
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman warned Iran against further “miscalculations,” saying such actions threatened regional security and stability.
The rising attacks have rattled global energy markets. Brent crude prices surged more than 8 percent in a single day this week and have climbed nearly 30 percent since the conflict intensified.
Elsewhere, Israel has continued to exchange fire with Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon as Tehran's network of regional allies -- often referred to as the "axis of resistance" -- weighs how far to escalate the confrontation.
Iran itself has responded to the US-Israeli strikes by launching waves of drones and missiles at Israeli targets and striking US military facilities across the region, including in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
The UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia have all reported drone and missile attacks over the past week.