When predicting which country would be the next to join the European Union, the smart money seems to be on Montenegro given that it has been negotiating for years and has advanced the furthest of all candidates.
Others point to Albania, which is currently making great strides toward Brussels as the next member.
There are also some who think that Moldova -- a reform-oriented and ambitious country in the bloc’s eastern neighborhood -- stands a decent chance of becoming EU member state number 28 in the coming year.
But the right answer may actually be Iceland.
The Trump administration's overtures to annex the Danish territory of Greenland and the prospect of a trade war between its security provider, the United States, and its biggest trading partner, the European Union, have created unease on the North Atlantic island.
The current Icelandic government, which came to power last year, has announced that a referendum will be held before 2027 on resuming accession talks with Brussels. Polls suggest a majority would support restarting talks.
The country has been here before.
It was badly hit by the 2008 global financial crisis, when three of its major banks collapsed. EU membership -- and especially joining the eurozone -- was seen as a way out of the crisis, and negotiations with the bloc began in 2010.
Talks were suspended three years later by a newly elected right-wing government. By then, the eurozone was itself engulfed in the same financial crisis, so joining the club and adopting its ailing common currency was no longer seen as a panacea.
In those three years of accession talks, Reykjavik opened most of the 33 accession chapters and closed 11.
By comparison, the current EU accession frontrunner, Montenegro, has managed to close a mere seven chapters in more than a decade of talks.
'A Sovereign Decision'
It’s not for nothing that EU officials believe that Iceland could wrap up the entire process in a couple of years if it was to resume its application -- which according to the European Commission still remains valid.
It helps, of course, that the country is part of the European Economic Area (EEA), which means that it -- together with other EEA members Norway and Liechtenstein -- is already applying the EU’s internal market rules.
When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited the island last week, she was quick to point out that the issue of future EU membership is “a sovereign decision that the people take here. So, it’s not a topic for me to comment on.”
But, she added, “Iceland is familiar and integrated into the single market, we share values, we know each other very well, we are like-minded -- all this is an asset.”
Speaking under the condition of anonymity, a European diplomat familiar with the topic was even more forthright.
“It would be good if a Western European country would join the EU, especially after Brexit,” they said. “It would show that the club truly is attractive.”
Integration would prove seamless, given that Iceland is richer than the EU average and -- with a population of 300,000 -- would be the smallest member state if it joined.
While Brussels officially is trying to stay out of the Icelandic debate on membership, it is quietly doing everything to edge it closer.
During her visit, von der Leyen promised a trade review to potentially upgrade the EEA agreement. She also struck a deal to protect critical infrastructure that is essential for Iceland, such as subsea cables, and started negotiations on a new security and defense partnership agreement, which would allow closer cooperation on cyber and hybrid threats.
The partnership, expected to be ready by year’s end, is especially important for Iceland, which is acutely aware of the need for security cooperation, particularly as both Russia and China are becoming more active in the Arctic region.
The United States has also rattled the country recently with talk of taking over Greenland, sparking debate there about rejoining the European Union after leaving the European Communities -- a precursor of today’s EU -- back in 1985.
While Washington hasn’t made similar claims on Iceland, there is a certain nervousness, as the US provides for the country’s defense on behalf of NATO via a bilateral agreement signed in 1951.
To this day, Iceland is the only NATO member without its own army and there are no imminent plans to create one.
In 2006, the United States announced it would continue to provide for the island’s defense but without forces being permanently stationed there. That policy still stands, and the former US air base in Keflavik remains a hub for NATO exercises.
Trade Tension
But it is the transatlantic trade tension that is really making Iceland twitchy.
Reykjavik wants Brussels to consult them on the EU-US trade talks, but that is not something that EU officials can promise without full membership.
And it is trade in general that could spark conflict during eventual membership negotiations, especially on agriculture and fisheries, which are key industries on the island.
Those two items are excluded from the EEA for good reason.
There is a fear that the EU’s common agriculture policy would kill farming on the island by flooding it with cheap food products from other EU member states.
Fishing is even more delicate.
Reykjavik claims proudly that its management of fishing stocks is superior to Brussels.
And it would be very reluctant to give up its exclusive rights to fishing within its 200-mile economic zone to Danish, Dutch, Irish, Spanish, or French fleets.
Then there is commercial whaling, which is still is permitted in Icelandic waters despite the EU’s push for a global moratorium.
The fact remains that most political parties in the Icelandic parliament are against EU membership.
And while polls show that the population is keen to restart talks with Brussels, they are less sure that they actually want to become members.
In Brussels, officials remain hopeful but see obstacles for a small yet fiercely independent nation to voluntarily give up some of its sovereignty.
“It’s a long shot on their side, not ours,” one said.
