Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze told RFE/RL in an exclusive interview on July 4 that “Russia can go on for a while” in its war against Ukraine as it is “cannibalizing all the civilian economy and prioritizing everything around the battlefield”.
Her comments come after recent reports that the Russian economy is showing clear signs of slowing down, with manufacturing activity contracting.
“It's suffering, it's very clearly suffering”, Braze noted, but voiced pessimism that Russia was ready to agree a cease-fire.
Braze was speaking to RFE/RL during a visit to the Czech capital, Prague, hours after Russia again attacked Ukraine with more than 500 drones and 11 missiles.
The attack came after Washington said it would halt some weapon shipments to Kyiv due to worries that it’s own stockpiles were dwindling too quickly.
US President Donald Trump was due to discuss the matter with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a phone call later on July 4.
That conversation comes after Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 3 – a call that Trump said left him "disappointed" as Putin apparently gave no indication he was willing to agree to a cease-fire.
Russia Shows No Progress Toward Peace
“There is always potential for peace, but indications within Russia are such that there is no serious movement towards peace," Braze said.
"And as there is no movement towards peace by leaders of Russia or by elements in the system, what is needed is further pressure.”
While Russia remains bogged down in Ukraine, European politicians have said that Moscow won’t stop if it is successful there and could be ready to attack a NATO country within the next five years.
Latvia or the other Baltic republics are often cited as being potential targets.
Braze noted that for now “we don't have direct military threats against any of NATO's member states," but added “at the same time, obviously, Russia is a threat to NATO's allies' security.”
No Belarus Sanctions Policy Shift Expected
While the situation looks bleak with Russia, another of Latvia’s neighbors, Belarus, recently took some steps that could indicate a change of political course.
In June, a number of political prisoners were released, including Syarhei Tsikhanouski, who was detained in May 2020 while attempting to run for president against authoritarian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko.
The move came after US envoy Keith Kellogg visited Minsk and there have been suggestions that Western countries might reduce sanctions on Belarus.
Braze dismissed the idea.
“We expect the Belarusian regime to release more than 1,000 prisoners that are still there. And that's (just) political prisoners, there are also others imprisoned," she said.
"So, we don't see a big change yet in the policy of the regime. Quite clearly, Belarus is enabling Russia's war in Ukraine. Russian troops are marching through. Russia has fully integrated Belarus into its ZAPAD (military) exercise preparations.”
Braze also dismissed the possibility of allowing EU-sanctioned Belarusian fertilizers, one of the country’s big exports, to once again be transported via Latvia, amid media speculation that this was one of Kellog’s promises to Minsk in exchange for the prisoner releases.
“There has been no ask from the US about it," she said.
"We don't know where that disinformation comes from but nothing like that has happened and there is a whole spectrum of sanctions on Belarusian fertilizers and potash...So, everything stays as it is.”
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