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Iran Bans Pagers, Walkie-Talkies On Flights After Recent Blasts

Thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia exploded in September.
Thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia exploded in September.

Iran has banned passengers from carrying pagers and walkie-talkies on all flights, after near-simultaneous attacks last month in which the communication devices exploded across Lebanon and Syria. The new regulation applies to both cabin and hold luggage, a spokesman for the Iranian aviation authority told the ISNA news agency on October 12. Passengers are still allowed to take their mobile phones on board. Thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia exploded in September. Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah and Iran blamed the brazen attacks on Israel. At least 39 people were killed and around 3,000 were injured, some seriously. Most were Hezbollah members.

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The Farda Briefing: Iran Wants To Negotiate With U.S., But What Will It Concede?

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL's Iran correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm exploring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's recent comments on engaging the United States and whether Iran is ready to make big concessions.

What You Need To Know

Khamenei Gives Blessing To Talks With Trump: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei this week appeared to green-light talks with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration in the hopes of lifting sanctions. Iranian officials had been signaling a desire to talk to Trump, but talks can't take place without Khamenei's say-so.

Iran Frozen Out As World Warms Up To Syria's New Rulers: Syria's new government has reportedly held more than 200 diplomatic engagements since coming to power on December 8, including with Western and Arab delegations and, notably, Russian diplomats. Iran, however, is nowhere to be seen. Iran and Russia helped former President Bashar al-Assad fight rebel forces that now run the country. The Kremlin seems to have established some rapport with Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, but the Islamic republic has been entirely frozen out.

U.S. Federal Funding Freeze Spooks Iran-Focused Advocacy Groups: NGOs and advocacy groups that focus on Iran have raised concerns about their work being impacted by the Trump administration's decision to pause federal grants and loans. The groups, some of which work on facilitating Internet access and monitoring human rights violations in Iran, argue that Tehran stands to benefit from the funding freeze. Hard-line media in Iran have welcomed the decision. A judge has blocked the temporary freeze, but the White House has said it will pursue its implementation.

The Big Issue

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei greets attendees during a meeting with officials and ambassadors of Muslim nations in Tehran on January 28.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei greets attendees during a meeting with officials and ambassadors of Muslim nations in Tehran on January 28.

Expectations Vs. Reality: What Is Iran Ready To Give Up?

Khamenei told a gathering of state officials and envoys from Muslim nations on January 28 that Tehran should be wary of "enmity and grudges" concealed behind "diplomatic smiles."

But he followed that up by saying that when "you know the person you're dealing with," it's possible to "make a deal but you also know what to do."

This comment is widely seen as a green light to sit down with the Trump administration -- something that seemed impossible just a few years ago.

Why It Matters: Iran has suffered setbacks abroad and is facing challenges at home, not least a struggling economy and weak currency -- both exacerbated by U.S. sanctions.

Iran wants the sanctions lifted, but the question is what Khamenei is willing to negotiate away. Iran is at its weakest and most vulnerable in decades. With its network of regional proxies politically and militarily degraded, the only real bargaining chips Tehran is left with are its advanced nuclear and missile programs.

There are no good options for Iran: It insists its nuclear program is peaceful and meant to generate power, while its missile program is an integral part of its defensive doctrine. Budging on either will upset the Islamic republic's core support base, but not making any meaningful concessions will only add to international pressure and further sink the economy.

What's Being Said: Supporters of engaging Trump have taken Khamenei's comments to mean he is backing "cautious negotiations" with the U.S. president.

But opponents of talks with the West insist that it would be "naive" to take Khamenei's remarks as a green light to open negotiations with Trump.

Khamenei has perfected equivocation, speaking in vague terms that open up his comments to interpretation. He does not like to publicly commit to a position, likely because it shields him from taking responsibility when things go south.

Expert Opinion: "Khamenei's main plan is to buy time and manage the situation to navigate the second Trump presidency with minimal risk, based on the implicit acknowledgment of the regime's weakened position both domestically and internationally," says Ali Afshari, a U.S.-based political analyst and adjunct professor at George Washington University.

What's Ahead

These are the stories we'll be watching between now and the next issue of the Farda Briefing:

  • Iran has been waiting to receive advanced Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia for nearly two years. A military official's comment this week about Tehran having purchased the warplanes has observers wondering whether delivery is close.
  • Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref will attend a summit of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on January 31-February 1.
  • RFE/RL's Radio Farda has interviewed Oscar-nominated Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof, whose movie The Seed of the Sacred Fig is up for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film in March. You can watch a sneak peek of the interview here.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Exiled Iranian Director Mohammad Rasoulof Aims For Oscar With Covert Film

Exiled Iranian Director Mohammad Rasoulof Aims For Oscar With Covert Film
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Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof fled his country this year after secretly shooting a movie that has now been nominated for an Oscar. He told RFE/RL the film was inspired by a prison guard he spoke to while he was in jail in Iran. 

Diminished Hamas Remains Dominant In Gaza Despite Israel War

Hamas militants hand over Doron Steinbrecher, a hostage who had been held in Gaza since October 2023, to members of the International Committee of the Red Cross as part of a cease-fire deal between Hamas and Israel, in Gaza on January 19.
Hamas militants hand over Doron Steinbrecher, a hostage who had been held in Gaza since October 2023, to members of the International Committee of the Red Cross as part of a cease-fire deal between Hamas and Israel, in Gaza on January 19.

Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip degraded the fighting capabilities of Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group.

But the militant group remains the dominant power in the Palestinian enclave, despite suffering heavy losses during 15 months of Israeli bombardment.

“Hamas is gradually taking back control even if it is very much diminished,” said Nimrod Goren, head of the Jerusalem-based Mitvim Institute.

Israel had pledged to continue its war in Gaza until it eliminated Hamas. But the sides agreed a cease-fire and hostage-exchange deal on January 15.

Hamas carried out an attack in Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza's Hamas-run Health Ministry, destroyed much of its infrastructure, and displaced most of its 2.3 million residents.

Displaced Palestinians make their way past the rubble as they attempt to return to their homes in the northern Gaza Strip on January 19.
Displaced Palestinians make their way past the rubble as they attempt to return to their homes in the northern Gaza Strip on January 19.

Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, lost most of its political and military leadership during the war. Its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in a suspected Israeli attack in Iran in July. His successor, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza in October.

Israel claims that it killed up to 20,000 Hamas fighters during the war, a figure contested by the militant group, which has not said how many of its members were killed.

No Alternatives

Despite its losses, Hamas has retained its tight grip on power in Gaza.

“Hamas doesn't have to be as strong as before because it is still stronger than any other alternative,” said Jerome Drevon, senior analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Even so, the group appears to be replenishing its ranks.

Senior U.S. officials have said that Hamas has recruited as many new fighters as it lost during the war, although they are not considered to be as experienced.

Drevon said Israel’s strategy to solve the Hamas issue militarily has failed. The alternative, he said, is a political settlement with the Palestinians.

But that is opposed by Israeli Prime Minister Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right members of his ruling coalition.

“For them, there is no political compromise,” said Drevon about the Israeli far-right. “It's only about reaching their full victory."

On January 19, Israel’s far-right national-security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, resigned from Netanyahu’s cabinet to protest the Gaza truce deal. He said the agreement would “destroy all of Israel’s achievements.”

Iran's Ally

Drevon said that, despite surviving the war with Israel, “replenishing its arsenal will be more difficult” for Hamas, which has received some financial and military support from Iran.

Israel has imposed a land, sea, and air blockade on Gaza since 2007. It controls Gaza’s 12-kilometer-long land border with Egypt. Israel had repeatedly accused Hamas of smuggling weapons through underground tunnels from Egypt.

He said that Iran is likely to continue supporting Hamas, but bankrolling the group will no longer be a main concern.

A banner showing slain Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas officials in Enqelab-e-Eslami (Islamic Revolution) Square in Tehran, Iran.
A banner showing slain Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas officials in Enqelab-e-Eslami (Islamic Revolution) Square in Tehran, Iran.

“Iran's priority is Iran,” Drevon said. “For them, what matters is to find a new agreement with Western countries and the U.S.”

Iran is weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in years after suffering a series of major blows.

During a punishing 2024, Tehran saw its regional influence diminished and its military deterrence against archfoes Israel and the United States weakened.

The Islamic republic has tough decisions to make after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House. The nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, which Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from in 2018 during his first term, also expires later this year.

Even if Iranian assistance shrinks, Hamas is still likely to be a major player in the Palestinian territories, given how entrenched it is in Gaza and the support it maintains in the occupied West Bank.

“It's not going to be destroyed,” said Drevon.

Iran Is Weaker, More Vulnerable Than Ever After String Of Blows

Iran Is Weaker, More Vulnerable Than Ever After String Of Blows
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Iran worked for decades to build its network of proxies and allied states to counter the U.S. and Israel. But the past year has seen so-called axis of resistance crumble, diminishing Iran’s regional influence and strength. How was the axis formed and how did Iran get to where it is today?

U.S. Moves To Redesignate Iran-Backed Huthis As Foreign Terrorist Organization

Huthi rebels rally in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 10.
Huthi rebels rally in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 10.

The United States has begun the process to again declare the Iran-backed Huthi rebel group of Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), restoring the designation President Donald Trump set out during his first term.

"Supported by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, which arms and trains terrorist organizations worldwide, the Huthis have fired at U.S. Navy warships dozens of times since 2023, endangering American men and women in uniform," a White House statement said on January 22.

The statement also referred to the Huthis as Ansar Allah, the name used by the extremist group that has since the 1990s battled the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which is supported by a Saudi-led military coalition.

Trump's declaration sets in motion a process that will likely conclude within 45 days to officially designate the Huthis as a foreign terrorist organization under U.S. legislation.

During his first term, Trump had designated the Huthis as an FTO, but the action was reversed by the Biden administration over concerns such a listing could prevent desperately needed aid from reaching Yemen.

President Joe Biden did later label the group as a specially designated global terrorist entity, a slightly lower level of sanctioning.

The latest move, one of Trump's first in his second term in the field of foreign relations, could be an initial step in the "maximum pressure" campaign his team has vowed to renew against Iran, which it blames for supporting extremist activity in the Middle East.

Huthi rebels in 2014 seized much of Yemen's northwest and its capital, Sanaa, leading to a war that has killed tens of thousands of people and created a humanitarian nightmare in the Arab world's poorest country.

Many observers described the hostilities as a "proxy war" between Saudi- and Iranian-led groups.

"Since seizing most Yemeni population centers by force from the legitimate Yemeni government in 2014-2015, the Huthis have launched numerous attacks on civilian infrastructure, including multiple attacks on civilian airports in Saudi Arabia, the deadly January 2022 attacks on the United Arab Emirates, and more than 300 projectiles fired at Israel since October 2023," the White House statement said.

"The Huthis have also attacked commercial vessels transiting Bab al-Mandeb more than 100 times, killing at least four civilian sailors and forcing some Red Sea maritime commercial traffic to reroute, which has contributed to global inflation."

The statement added that the rebel group’s activities "threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest regional partners, and the stability of global maritime trade."

The Huthis stepped up attacks on shipping in the Gulf region and fired missiles toward Israel, claiming it was in support of Gaza's Hamas movement, which has also been declared a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union.

The actions brought air strikes by the U.S. and Israeli militaries, but the rebels recently have appeared to pull back on their attacks since the cease-fire in Gaza was reached.

Trump Takes Office, Pledges To Be 'Peacemaker'

U.S. President Donald Trump speaking during inauguration ceremonies in the U.S. Capitol
U.S. President Donald Trump speaking during inauguration ceremonies in the U.S. Capitol

Donald Trump has been sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, pledging to be a "peacemaker."

"We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into," he said.

The remarks address hopes and fears in the world's biggest conflict zones.

For Ukrainians, enduring a third year of brutal conflict following Russia's full-scale invasion, peace is sorely desired. Likewise, across the Middle East, there will be many people hoping for an end to conflict.

But Trump did not provide any details of how peace will be achieved and maintained.

Ukraine Reaction

Congratulating Trump on social media, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote that Trump's "peace through strength policy" was a chance to "strengthen American leadership and achieve a long-term and just peace, which is the top priority."

This is how Zelenskiy would like to frame Trump as peacemaker: enabling Ukraine to enter talks from a position of U.S.-supplied strength.

But in his address, Trump voiced criticism of the previous administration for "unlimited funding to the defense of foreign borders."

Trump: 'That's What I Want To Be: A Peacemaker And A Unifier'
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Trump: 'That's What I Want To Be: A Peacemaker And A Unifier'

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There's concern in Ukraine that Trump's arrival could weaken Ukraine by withholding military support and force it into a peace on unfavorable terms.

"Everyone is very tired of [the war], but I don't really expect him to be a magician and turn it all into a fairy tale," a woman in Zaporizhzhya told RFE/RL a few hours before the inauguration.

Putin: Open To Dialogue

Comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin underlined these fears.

Speaking at a meeting of his National Security Council, Putin said he was open to dialogue with the new U.S. administration on ending the Ukraine conflict, based on a “lasting peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people.”

These words will ring hollow in Ukraine, where Putin launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022. He still lays claim to huge areas of Ukrainian territory, including parts that his forces have not occupied.

In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greeted Trump's inauguration by voicing hope that "we will complete the defeat of Iran's terror axis."

Trump Is Sworn In
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Trump Is Sworn In

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Trump's comments about being a peacemaker were accompanied by a reference to the war in Gaza.

"I'm pleased to say that as of yesterday, one day before I assumed office, the hostages in the Middle East are coming back home to their families," he said.

This was the first stage of the cease-fire deal that brought a pause to 15-months of conflict between Israel and Hamas, listed as a terrorist organization by Washington.

It's unclear whether the shaky deal will hold. Likewise, it's unclear how the new administration will approach further planned talks. On this, as on Ukraine, Trump did not add any details.

But this was an inaugural address, not a policy statement. The days and weeks that follow may put flesh on the bones. For now, Trump has offered a first glimpse of how he intends to redefine U.S. foreign policy.

How The Israel-Hamas War Reshaped The Middle East

Mourners react near the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli air strikes in Khan Younis on January 17.
Mourners react near the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli air strikes in Khan Younis on January 17.

The 15-month conflict in the Middle East has caused a dramatic shift in the regional balance of power.

Iran and Russia have been severely weakened as Israel has pounded Tehran’s proxies in the region, leading also to the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Israel has emerged strengthened, but countries such as Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar have also gained influence.

Explainer: Looking Back At The Israel-Hamas War
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Iran’s decline is perhaps the most striking. Its much-vaunted “axis of resistance” was based primarily on Hamas and Hezbollah, both listed as terrorist organizations by Israel, the United States, and other countries.

Dramatic Changes

The war began after Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In a dramatic escalation of decades of conflict, Hamas raids into Israel killed over 1,200 people, and the militant group seized over 200 hostages.

The Israeli bombing and ground campaign that followed has killed the top figures in the Hamas leadership and an estimated 18,000 Hamas fighters.

But it also reduced Gaza to rubble, killing some 46,000 people in total, according to Gaza health authorities.

"Weakening Hamas’s core leadership and destroying Gaza is going to fuel other types of militancy,” said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.

On January 14, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington estimates that Hamas has recruited as many fighters as it lost during the war.

“That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war,” he told an audience in Washington.

Iran's Debacle

The war was a disaster for Iran. During the past four decades, Tehran has spent billions on building a network of militant proxies across the region in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza, and Yemen.

Today, that lies in tatters.

Since September 2024, Israel has dealt severe blows to Hezbollah in Lebanon by killing its long-standing leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and his key associates.

The Israeli onslaught strongly diminished Hezbollah, which was previously the most powerful political force in Lebanon. Beirut now has a new president and prime minister. Both are seen as moderate and reformist figures free from Tehran’s influence.

Mourners carry the coffins of Hezbollah fighters, killed in the war with Israel, in Maarakeh village, southern Lebanon in November.
Mourners carry the coffins of Hezbollah fighters, killed in the war with Israel, in Maarakeh village, southern Lebanon in November.

In Syria there was an even more profound impact. Hezbollah was no longer able to help President Bashar al-Assad maintain his grip on power. Nor were Russian forces, distracted and diluted by their much bigger war in Ukraine.

“Israel set in motion a chain of events that ultimately led to the collapse of the Assad regime,” said Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East expert at London’s European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Tehran was forced to withdraw from Syria in the wake of Assad’s collapse.

“In Iran, even among hard-liners and the proponents of the axis of resistance, they accept that they have been defeated,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

He said that it is too early to tell whether this will be a turning point for Tehran’s regional ambitions as it weighs giving up on Islamist militant groups in the Arab states.

“The costs are exceeding the benefits,” Vatanka said. “And if they make that decision, we will face a different reality of the Iranian regional agenda going forward.”

He said Iran’s influence over the Huthi rebels in Yemen is more tenuous.

The United States, Israel, and Britain have attacked power and port infrastructure controlled by the group in northern Yemen after it fired missiles and drones at Israel and attacked maritime traffic in the Red Sea.

“The Huthis have far more independence and an agenda of their own in terms of the Palestinians,” he said. “[They are] not so dependent on what Iran decides to do.”

Moscow's Exit

Assad’s flight to exile in Moscow means that Russia has lost its military foothold in the Middle East.

Russian forces were filmed evacuating, reportedly to eastern Libya. The Kremlin has lost an ally that dates back to the Cold War.

“It has suffered a huge strategic blow,” Lovatt said. “I don't see any imminent openings for Russia to reassert itself in the Middle East.”

However, other nations in the Middle East have gained influence at the expense of Tehran, Moscow, and their allies.

Turkey will now have plenty of opportunities to shape Syria's future.

Ankara-backed Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) now leads the interim government in Damascus after toppling Assad's government in a lightning offensive.

Israel now finds itself in a much stronger military position, having dealt powerful blows to many enemies.

Egypt and Qatar have scored diplomatic gains by brokering the elusive truce between Hamas and Israel.

However, Saudi Arabia, the oil-rich Sunni monarchy, has not gained much from the war.

“They put all their money on the Abraham Accords and were close to normalizing with Israel formally before October 7,” said Ayub, the analyst in Washington. “But they had no meaningful sway on regional developments since then.”

The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, key allies of Riyadh, recognized Israel under the Abraham Accords in September 2020.

The prewar hopes for Saudi Arabia to follow suit may be a casualty of the conflict, given the scale of death and destruction in Gaza.

This factor has also turned much public opinion in the region against the United States, which has called on Israel to show restraint while also providing the weapons it needed to wage war.

Both the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations have claimed credit for the peace deal, but it will be for President-elect Donald Trump to deal with the aftermath.

It’s expected he will adopt a policy of maximum pressure toward Iran. His rhetoric has been firmly pro-Israel. The coming days will show if the peace deal holds -- and how Trump’s arrival reshuffles the cards once again.

Updated

2 Iranian Supreme Court Judges Killed In Tehran

Judges Mohammad Moghiseh (left) and Ali Razini (composite file photo)
Judges Mohammad Moghiseh (left) and Ali Razini (composite file photo)

Two prominent Iranian Supreme Court judges have been killed in an attack at the court's headquarters in Tehran, according to Iran's judiciary.

The victims were identified as Ali Razini and Mohammad Moghiseh. A third judge was also wounded in the attack, which took place at Tehran's Palace of Justice.

The press service of Iran's judiciary reported that an armed individual had "infiltrated the Supreme Court in a planned act to assassinate two judges."

Initial investigations found that the attacker did not have a case before the court, nor any other connections, the judiciary's press service reported.

The Supreme Court is the highest judicial authority in Iran, with its head appointed by the supreme leader. Headquartered in Tehran, it has branches throughout the country.

Details of the incident or the attacker's motive remain unclear. The judiciary's press service reported that the attacker "quickly committed suicide" after the shooting, although this has not been confirmed.

Other Iranian media reports stated that the perpetrator was an "infiltrator" who first wounded a bodyguard with a knife, seized their weapon, and then carried out the assassinations.

Iran's semiofficial Mehr News Agency, citing an informed source, reported that the judges were shot with live rounds before the attacker committed suicide.

Both victims held significant positions in Iran's powerful judicial system. Judge Mohammad Moghiseh had presided over numerous political trials, including cases involving supporters of the 2009 opposition Green Movement. He was under sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for human rights violations.

Razini had served in many high-profile positions in the judiciary and had been accused by Iran's opposition of being involved in a series of extrajudicial killings of political prisoners in 1988.

In 1998, when he was serving as chief justice of Tehran, Razini was wounded in a bomb attack while leaving his workplace.

In its statement on the judges' deaths, the judiciary's press service said that in recent years "extensive measures have been taken by the judiciary to identify, prosecute, arrest, and prosecute agents and elements affiliated" with Israel and "American agents, spies, and terrorist groups."

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, and the identity of the attacker is not known.

Exiled Iranian Satirist Ebrahim Nabavi Takes His Own Life

Exiled Iranian Satirist Ebrahim Nabavi Takes His Own Life
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The family of the exiled Iranian satirist and comedian Ebrahim Nabavi has announced his death in the United States at the age of 66. In a statement, they said he had taken his own life and that the "impossibility of living in his homeland weighed heavily on him." Nabavi left Iran in 2003 after serving multiple prison terms for his activism and criticism of the Islamic republic.

A Weakened Iran's New Russia Pact Comes In Shadow Of Distrust

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian shake hands during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on January 17, 2025.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian shake hands during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on January 17, 2025.

A common enemy -- the United States -- has brought Iran and Russia together despite their troubled history and deep mistrust. Now, two of the world’s most sanctioned nations are poised to sign a strategic partnership that will govern their bilateral relations for the next two decades.

The agreement deepens the ties between Tehran and Moscow, which have expanded in recent years, including in Syria -- where both countries bolstered the regime of now-deposed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad -- as well in Ukraine, where Iran, despite official denials, has supplied cheap drones to Russia for the all-out war the Kremlin launched on its neighbor in 2022.

The agreement, expected to be signed during Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on January 17, is likely to be viewed with distrust and suspicion by the Iranian public -- and even by some of the country’s politicians who say Tehran cannot trust Moscow.

Most recently, a senior commander with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) accused Russia of betrayal in Syria and aligning with Iran’s chief enemy, Israel.

In 2021, it was Iran's then-Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, currently serving as a vice president for strategic affairs, who accused Russia of working to undermine nuclear diplomacy with the West.

The new partnership agreement comes with the Islamic republic at one of its weakest points in recent history.

Iran’s economy is in shambles, and its so-called “axis of resistance” is significantly weakened -- or even dead, as some would argue.

Meanwhile, the regime faces an Iranian public increasingly angry and frustrated by the clerics’ more than four decades of mismanagement and incompetence, which have brought misery and poverty, repression, and even widespread power cuts in a country with major energy resources.

The signing of Iran’s new strategic partnership with Russia comes days ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration in Washington on January 20, and Iranian officials -- including Pezeshkian -- have been sending signals to Trump’s incoming administration, which is likely to ramp up pressure on Tehran.

The agreement is unlikely to offer the Islamic republic much-needed economic relief or provide Iran security amid heightened tensions with Israel and reports that Tel Aviv could strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

For now, Tehran’s ties with Russia have brought the country more sanctions and isolation while strengthening its pariah-state image.

The partnership is likely to bring even more international pressure on Iran and make a potential detente with the West more difficult.

Updated

Amid Biting Sanctions, Russia And Iran Sign Pact To Deepen Ties

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and his Iranian counterpart, Masud Pezeshkian, meet in Moscow on January 17.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and his Iranian counterpart, Masud Pezeshkian, meet in Moscow on January 17.

Iran and Russia, two of the most-sanctioned nations in the world, have signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty as Moscow and Tehran deepen cooperation that has steadily increased since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian, on his first visit to the Kremlin since he won a presidential election last July, signed the pact in Moscow on January 17 after meeting for talks that both leaders said would strengthen relations in a broad spectrum of areas.

The new treaty, which runs for 20 years, aims to strengthen Tehran and Moscow's "military-political and trade-economic" relations, the Kremlin said.

While details of the agreement are scarce, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a news conference on January 15 that the treaty “is constructive in nature and is aimed at strengthening the capabilities of Russia, Iran, and our friends in various parts of the world."

The agreement reportedly does not include a mutual defense clause.

Russia and Iran are both under severe Western sanctions, including restrictions on their energy industries.

Pezeshkian’s visit and the signing of the treaty are further signs of the deepening relationship between Tehran and Moscow. The two countries have also expanded their military cooperation despite warnings from Western countries over the supply of Iranian-made Shahed drones to Russia.

Europe and the United States have imposed several rounds of sanctions on Iranian entities and individuals for providing various types of support to Russia, including the Shaheds. Iran claims to be "neutral" in the Ukraine war.

Pezeshkian's visit to Russia comes just days before President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Trump, who withdrew the United States from an international deal designed to curb Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and ordered the killing of one of Iran's top generals in 2020, was the target of an alleged Iranian plot to kill him last year.

Explainer: Looking Back At The Israel-Hamas War

Explainer: Looking Back At The Israel-Hamas War
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A landmark deal has been agreed between Israel and Hamas, proscribed as a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries. The war has fundamentally reshaped the Middle East.

Israel, Hamas Agree Cease-Fire Deal, Although Much 'Uncertainty' Remains

Relatives and friends of people killed and abducted by Hamas and taken into Gaza, react to the cease-fire announcement as they take part in a demonstration in Tel Aviv, Israel, on January 15.
Relatives and friends of people killed and abducted by Hamas and taken into Gaza, react to the cease-fire announcement as they take part in a demonstration in Tel Aviv, Israel, on January 15.

Israel and the U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas have reached a multiphase cease-fire deal that includes the exchange of Israeli hostages for some 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and the delivery of urgent humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

Mediated by Qatar and Egypt, the agreement will go into effect on January 19, according to Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. It includes three stages, with the final stage focusing on the reconstruction of Gaza.

The conflict broke out in October 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked settlements in southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages to Gaza.

Israel retaliated by launching a devastating war in the Palestinian enclave that has killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities. The conflict has led to the mass destruction of the territory and the displacement of most of its 2.3 million residents.

What We Know

The details of the agreement have not been formally published, but a clear image has emerged from official comments and media reports based on leaked drafts of the deal.

In the first phase, a six-week cease-fire will begin, during which Israeli troops will gradually withdraw from central Gaza.

During this phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages -- expected to be mostly women, the elderly, and the sick -- in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

Some hostages were released in November 2023 in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is still holding 94 hostages, but Israel believes that only 60 are still alive.

Palestinians celebrate the announcement of a cease-fire deal between Hamas and Israel in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, on January 15
Palestinians celebrate the announcement of a cease-fire deal between Hamas and Israel in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, on January 15

Palestinians displaced by the conflict will be allowed to return to their homes in the first phase of the deal, while humanitarian aid will start to flow into the Hamas-run enclave. Nearly the entirety of Gaza residents were forced to flee their homes, fueling a major humanitarian crisis.

Further negotiations on the second and third phase of the agreement will begin on the 16th day of the deal’s implementation, and analysts say this could pose the first real challenge to the cease-fire’s longevity.

The second phase of the agreement involves the release of the remaining hostages and, crucially, the end of the war.

“There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether Israel is committed to a permanent end of the conflict,” said Michael Horowitz, the head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.

What It Means

The Iran-backed Hamas has suffered greatly in the course of the war, losing its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and his successor, Yahya Sinwar, within months of each other.

Horowitz said Hamas will claim victory simply because it survived the war.

“The question is whether it can truly return to power in Gaza, retain its military capabilities, and even capitalize on this perceived victory to consolidate its presence outside of Gaza, namely in the West Bank,” he added.

Iran, whose so-called axis of resistance has suffered multiple setbacks since the outbreak of the Gaza war, sees the cease-fire as good news.

People search the rubble of a building destroyed in an Israeli strike on the Bureij camp for Palestinian refugees in the central Gaza Strip, January 8.
People search the rubble of a building destroyed in an Israeli strike on the Bureij camp for Palestinian refugees in the central Gaza Strip, January 8.

Israel fought a devastating war with the U.S.-designated Lebanese political party and armed group Hezbollah late last year, decimating its senior leadership and degrading its military capabilities. Hezbollah came out of the war a shell of its former self, and its weakening led to the election of a president and prime minister in Lebanon who are favored by Western powers and Iran’s regional rivals.

Adding insult to injury, Syrian rebel forces opposed to the government of Iran’s longtime ally Bashar al-Assad launched a lightning offensive on the very day that Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a cease-fire. The Iran- and Russia-backed government of Assad fell in under two weeks, dealing a major blow to both Tehran and Moscow’s regional ambitions.

Horowitz said the Gaza cease-fire allows Iran to fully de-escalate and engage the Donald Trump administration once he takes office later this month.

Iran may also sit back and recalibrate its strategy, such as deciding whether to re-arm Hamas, which Horowitz said may not pose the same threat to Israel as it once did for a long time.

“I think the West Bank may be more interesting for Iran, as this is where the future of the Palestinian divide between Hamas and Israel will play out,” he added.

Many in Israel will welcome the end of the war and the return of hostages, but the cease-fire deal could turn into a headache for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has claimed several times that the war will continue until “total victory” over Hamas.

Given the staunch opposition to the deal among far-right members of his cabinet -- some of whom have threatened to quit -- Netanyahu’s top priority will be to ensure his government does not collapse, according to Horowitz.

Lebanon Names ICJ Chief As Prime Minister In Latest Blow To Iran

Nawaf Salam's designation as Lebanese prime minister further reflects the weakening of Hezbollah -- and by extension the waning of Iran's influence. (file photo)
Nawaf Salam's designation as Lebanese prime minister further reflects the weakening of Hezbollah -- and by extension the waning of Iran's influence. (file photo)

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's designation of Nawaf Salam, the head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as the country's new prime minister appears to deal another blow to Iran's declining regional influence.

Lawmakers on January 13 nominated Salam for the post, favoring him over the incumbent, Najib Mikati, who was said to be the preferred candidate of Hezbollah, the political party and armed group backed by Iran and designated as terrorists by the United States.

Aoun himself was elected president by lawmakers on January 9, filling a role that had been vacant for over two years, not least because lawmakers from Hezbollah and its Shi'ite ally Amal Movement would refuse to attend sessions to prevent the parliament from reaching quorum.

The U.S.- and Saudi-backed former army chief was elected president in the second round of voting after Hezbollah lawmakers opted to vote for him, having withheld their ballots in the first round in an apparent attempt to show that the group still held some power.

However, Salam's designation as prime minister further reflects the weakening of Hezbollah -- and by extension the waning of Iran's influence.

"It means that Iran's dominance in the region has come to an end," Makram Rabah, a history lecturer at American University of Beirut, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Mohammad Raad, leader of the Hezbollah bloc in parliament, claimed on January 13 that opponents of the group were working to exclude it from power and sought to divide the country.

The Lebanese lawmaker said the group had "extended its hand" by helping Aoun become president but found the "hand was cut off" after meeting him following the parliament's nomination of Salam.

Raad warned any government that "opposes coexistence has no legitimacy whatsoever."

Rabah said Salam's designation as prime minister "does not pose a challenge for anyone," but if Iran and Hezbollah believe that his becoming Lebanon's premier is "an attempt to end them," that means the Islamic republic and its Lebanese ally "harbor ideas and policies that contravene the principles of governance and progress."

Once a powerful force in Lebanon, Hezbollah's recent war with Israel has left it politically and socially weak and militarily degraded.

Under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing political system, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shi'ite Muslim.

Salam, who comes from a historically political family, served as Lebanon's ambassador to the United Nations in 2007-17 before elected to serve on the ICJ, with his term beginning in 2018. In 2024, he became the first Lebanese judge to be elected as the head of The Hague-based court.

Tehran Releases German-Iranian Activist Nahid Taghavi

Nahid Taghavi poses with with her daughter, Mariam Caren, after her release on January 12.
Nahid Taghavi poses with with her daughter, Mariam Caren, after her release on January 12.

Nahid Taghavi, a dual German-Iranian national, has returned to Germany after four years of imprisonment in Iran as a new round of nuclear negotiations between three major European countries and Tehran is set to resume.

Taghavi's daughter, Mariam Claren, posted on social media on January 14 a picture of herself embracing her mother at what appeared to be a German airport with a caption saying "It's over. Nahid is free!"

"After more than 4 years as a political prisoner in the Islamic Republic of Iran my mother Nahid Taghavi was freed and is back in Germany," she added.

Taghavi, now 69, was arrested by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) while visiting Iran in the fall of 2020.

She was later sentenced to 10 years and eight months in prison by a revolutionary court on charges of taking part in an "illegal group" -- something she and her family have denied.

Taghavi was briefly granted medical furloughs but was required to remain under electronic surveillance in Tehran.

She was forced to return to prison amid increased tensions between Iran and Germany, notably after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz voiced support for Iran's Women, Life, Freedom protests, a movement advocating for women's rights and freedom in Iran.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock celebrated Taghavi's release in a social media post, calling it "a moment of great joy."

Taghavi's release follows a flurry of diplomatic moves leading up to talks to be held in Geneva on January 14 between Iran, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France.

Last week Italian journalist Cecilia Sala was released after being detained in Iran for three weeks while in Tehran for a reporting trip.

Separately, Iranian national Mohammad Abedini, who was arrested in Italy on a U.S. warrant for allegedly smuggling drone parts to the IRGC, was released and returned to Tehran last week.

The talks in Geneva are the second round in two months concerning Tehran's nuclear program.

France has said the so-called consultations are aimed at working "toward a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear program, the progress of which is extremely problematic."

France, Germany, and the United Kingdom were key players in a 2015 deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that gave Iran some limited relief from international sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program designed to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Under then-President Donald Trump, the United States pulled out of the deal and reimposed biting sanctions on the Islamic republic.

With Trump scheduled to be inaugurated once again as president on January 20, Rafael Grossi, head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has urged Iran and its global partners to achieve "concrete, tangible, and visible results" in talks over Tehran's nuclear program as Trump's return to the White House may mean the window for diplomacy is closing.

Taghavi's case is just one of many involving dual nationals detained in Iran. The West accuses Tehran of using the detainees as diplomatic bargaining chips.

France has demanded the immediate release of its nationals arrested in Iran, saying their conditions are tantamount to torture.

Meanwhile, Switzerland has called for an investigation into the death of one of its citizens in an Iranian jail last week that Iranian authorities ruled was a "suicide."

The fate of Jamshid Sharmahd, an Iranian-German political activist executed in Iran under controversial circumstances, also has fueled tension between Berlin and Tehran. Despite an international outcry, Iran has not released Sharmahd's body to his family in the United States.

Italy Frees Iranian Wanted By U.S. For Alleged Involvement In Drone Attack

Iranian citizen Mohammad Abedin was released by Italy on January 12. (file photo)
Iranian citizen Mohammad Abedin was released by Italy on January 12. (file photo)

Tehran has confirmed that an Iranian national has returned home following his release from Italy, despite a request by Washington for his extradition to the United States for alleged involvement in a deadly drone attack in Jordan.

Italy's release of 38-year-old Mohammad Abedini on January 12 came four days after the freeing by Tehran of 29-year-old Italian journalist and podcaster Cecilia Sala, although no mention of a prisoner swap was made by either side.

After saying Abedini had been released earlier in the day by Italy, the Iranian Foreign Ministry and judiciary announced he had arrived in Iran.

Abedini, an Iranian-Swiss businessman, was arrested in Italy in December at the request of the United States.

Washington has accused him of supplying sophisticated drone technology to Iran's military in violation of U.S. sanctions and of alleged involvement in a January 2024 drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed three soldiers.

The U.S. Justice Department said Abedini was the founder and director of an Iranian company "that manufactures navigation modules used in the military drone program" of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry claimed Abedini's arrest was a "misunderstanding" that was resolved in talks between the Iranian and Italian intelligence services.

The Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reported Abedini had been released from a Milan prison by the Court of Appeals based on a ruling by Justice Minister Carlo Nordio.

Italy's Justice Ministry said that, according to the country's treaty with Washington, extradition can only occur if an alleged crime is punishable under both countries' laws.

"The first conduct attributed to the Iranian citizen of 'criminal association to violate the IEEPA' [is not] punished by the Italian criminal system," it said, referring to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a U.S. law that gives the president sweeping emergency powers.

The Iranian man is also accused by Washington of "criminal association to provide material support to a terrorist organization resulting in death" and of providing "material support to a foreign terrorist organization resulting in death."

However, Italy's Justice Ministry said no evidence was offered as "a basis for the accusations made."

Washington has not commented on Abedini's release.

Sala, who was arrested on December 19 by Tehran police for her "journalistic activities," was released on January 8 and has returned home.

The journalist, who has a podcast called Stories that covers life in places around the world, was held for over a week before Iranian authorities confirmed her detention.

The arrest sparked a diplomatic clash between Tehran and Rome, with Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto calling her arrest “unacceptable.”

The United States called Sala's detention "retaliatory," while media watchdogs Reporters Without Borders and the International Federation of Journalists described her arrest as "arbitrary" and aimed at "extortion."

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced in a post on X that Sala was released "thanks to intense work on diplomatic and intelligence channels."

Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries.

With reporting by AFP

Key Trump Adviser Blasts Iran At Paris Opposition Gathering

Keith Kellogg, key adviser to President-elect Donald Trump, wants new pressure on Iran. (file photo)
Keith Kellogg, key adviser to President-elect Donald Trump, wants new pressure on Iran. (file photo)

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, while attending an Iranian opposition event in Paris, called for the return of "maximum pressure" against Tehran to push it to allow more democracy and to cease support for extremist elements in the Middle East.

"These pressures are not just kinetic, just not military force, but they must be economic and diplomatic as well," Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant-general, on January 11 told attendees at a gathering of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) – which Tehran considers a terrorist group.

Trump has vowed to return to the "maximum pressure" policy he pursued during his previous term, with the goal of hampering the Iranian economy enough to force it to negotiate its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and curb regional activities.

Trump in 2018 withdrew Washington from a landmark nuclear deal signed with world powers, reimposing crippling sanctions on Iran. Trump said the terms were not strict enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

In Paris, Kellogg said there were now opportunities "to change Iran for the better" but that "we must exploit the weakness we now see. The hope is there, so must too be the action."

It was not immediately clear if Kellogg's trip and statements on Iran policy were directly synchronized with Trump.

Trump on November 27 tapped Kellogg, who has long served as a top adviser on defense issues, as his nominee to be special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.

Earlier this month, Kellogg postponed a trip he was expected to make to Kyiv and other European capitals until after Trump takes office on January 20.

Meanwhile, Hussein Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), on January 11 warned the incoming administration that strategic miscalculations could lead to armed conflict.

He added that Tehran's military was not as weak as some believed.

"We know that such judgments are the dreams of the enemy, not realities on the ground," he said, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

"Be careful, don't make any strategic mistakes or miscalculations," he said, without directly mentioning Trump.

The Trump administration in 2019 officially designated the IRGC a foreign terrorist organization.

With reporting by AFP and dpa

Swiss Demand Answers After Death Of Man In Iranian Prison

Swiss authorities have called on Tehran to provide full details on the death of a 64-year-old Swiss national in an Iranian prison following his arrest last month on allegations of spying.

“Switzerland is demanding that the Iranian authorities provide detailed information on the reasons for his arrest and a full investigation into the circumstances of his death,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Valentin Clivaz told RFE/RL in an e-mail on January 10.

Clivaz added that the Swiss Embassy in Tehran has been in daily contact with Iranian authorities since it was informed of the arrest on December 10, 2024, but that, because the allegations included espionage, it was not granted access to the detainee.

“On January 9, 2025, the embassy was informed that the Swiss man had taken his own life in prison,” the Swiss statement said.

It added it was withholding the name of the deceased for the protection of the victim's family but that repatriation of the body to Switzerland is a "top priority."

The Mizan news website, which is affiliated with Iran's judiciary, said the Swiss citizen had been "arrested by security agencies for espionage and his case was under investigation" when he took his own life at the prison in the eastern city of Semnan on January 9.

Mizan quoted Mohammad Sadeq Akbari, the chief justice of Semnan Province, as saying the individual was being held in a cell with another prisoner and took his life when the cellmate was not present.

Akbari did not name the Swiss citizen or provide further details, saying an investigation is being conducted and that, so far, "suicide is certain" as the cause of death.

The Swiss Foreign Ministry said the man was traveling in Iran as a tourist at the time of his arrest and that he had not lived in Switzerland for nearly 20 years. He last lived in southern Africa, it said.

Several European countries and the United States have characterized the Islamic republic's arrest of Western citizens as "hostage diplomacy," claiming Tehran uses such detentions as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West.

On January 10, the French Foreign Ministry said it summoned the Iranian ambassador to protest Tehran's detention of three French citizens it says are state “hostages” and demanded their immediate release.

“The situation is intolerable, with undignified detention conditions that, for some, constitute torture under international law," the ministry said.

Teacher Cecile Kohler and her partner, Jacques Paris, were detained in Iran in May 2022, accused of organizing labor protests. A third French national, identified only by the first name Olivier, has also been held since 2022.

In 2021, a Swiss diplomat died under mysterious circumstances in Iran.

Iranian media said the person died from a fall from a high-rise building just outside of Tehran. Swiss authorities did not identify the victim, nor did they give details on the incident.

In December 2024, the Swiss Attorney General's Office said the case of the diplomat's death had been closed and that an investigation had not proven any "criminal interference by a third party."

The investigation reportedly was complicated by the absence of organs in the victim after an initial autopsy was performed in Iran.

Switzerland has represented the United States diplomatically in Iran since Washington and Tehran cut ties in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The Swiss Foreign Ministry, in its January 10 statement, said that there were no other Swiss nationals in Iranian custody at this time.

Election Of New Lebanese President Signals Iran's Waning Influence

Lebanon's army chief Joseph Aoun walks after being elected as the country's President at the parliament building in Beirut, January 9
Lebanon's army chief Joseph Aoun walks after being elected as the country's President at the parliament building in Beirut, January 9

Lebanese lawmakers have elected army chief Joseph Aoun as the country’s new president, ending a two-year gridlock in a clear sign of the weakening of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed political party and military force that had scuttled past efforts to name a president.

Lawmakers from Hezbollah, which is a U.S.-designated terrorist group, and its ally Amal had for two years obstructed attempts to elect a president by walking out of the parliament, preventing it from reaching a quorum.

This time, however, they voted for Aoun in the second round on January 9 after their preferred candidate dropped out.

In the end, Aoun secured a commanding second-round victory, winning 99 out of 128 votes after falling short of the two-thirds majority required for victory in the first round.

Hezbollah’s devastating war with Israel late last year caused significant damage in Lebanon, particularly in the capital, Beirut, and weakened the Shi’ite group militarily, socially, and, it seems, politically.

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the election of the U.S-backed Aoun indicates that Hezbollah has “come to terms with the new political realities” in Lebanon.

He said that, by backing Aoun’s election, Hezbollah sought to avoid being blamed for prolonging Lebanon’s political gridlock while also ensuring that more staunchly anti-Hezbollah figures such as Samir Geagea did not become president.

“[Hezbollah’s] focus remains on survival while working toward a more stable situation in the country, which they hope to use over time to regain strength and rehabilitate their position,” Azizi added.

Aoun’s election was backed by the United States, France, and Iran’s regional rival Saudi Arabia, indicating that Riyadh’s influence in Lebanon will likely grow at Tehran’s expense.

“It is quite evident that, as Hezbollah’s role diminishes in Lebanon’s political and military affairs, Iranian influence is also waning,” Azizi argued.

Losing influence in Lebanon caps off a catastrophic few months for Iran, which has witnessed the battering of its sprawling network of regional proxies and the fall of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Still, Tehran appears supportive of Hezbollah’s strategy of maintaining a lower profile and focusing on rebuilding its strength, according to Azizi.

Even Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian has welcomed Aoun's election, saying it was a "reinforcement of stability and unity" in the country.

Iranian state-affiliated media, meanwhile, have avoided criticizing Aoun, with one news agency even describing him as an “impartial” and “relatively popular” figure.

In his victory speech, Aoun vowed that only the Lebanese state would have a "monopoly" on weapons in a comment seen as a pledge to disarm Hezbollah, which has long been considered a more powerful force than the Lebanese military.

Azizi said disarming Hezbollah is a longer-term goal which is “easier said than done” and that for “clear-eyed” Aoun, the immediate priority is establishing stability in Lebanon.

Of more immediate concern, analysts say, is the implementation of an Israeli-Hezbollah cease-fire while also seeking funding to rebuild Lebanon, especially in areas in the south and east that were hit hard by the fighting.

"Aoun has interlocking objectives. He has to address Hezbollah's weapons through some sort of dialogue forum. Yet he can only do so if he secures funding to rebuild mainly Shi'a areas. And for this he must engage in economic reform, because the Gulf states now demand it," said Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Iran In 'Critical Situation' After Punishing Year At Home And Abroad

Banners of Iran's late President Ebrahim Raisi and key figures of the 'axis of resistance' are displayed during a ceremony in Tehran on January 2.
Banners of Iran's late President Ebrahim Raisi and key figures of the 'axis of resistance' are displayed during a ceremony in Tehran on January 2.

Iran is weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in years after suffering a series of major blows.

During a punishing 2024, Tehran saw its regional influence diminished, its military deterrence against archfoes Israel and the United States weakened, and its economy languish.

Experts say the Islamic republic has tough decisions to make in the year ahead as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office and the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers expires.

"I suspect 2025 year will be a year of hardship and difficult choices for Tehran as the regime faces off against the bullish incoming Trump administration and tries to hunker down to contain the impact of Trump's hard-line approach," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House.

On The Back Foot

The fall of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally, in December was a major blow to Iran's regional ambitions.

Under Assad, Syria was a member of Iran's "axis of resistance," its loose network of regional proxies and partners, and allowed Tehran to supply its allies.

That included Hezbollah, the political party and armed group in Lebanon, which has also been Iran's most important partner for decades.

Once a force to be reckoned with, Hezbollah is now a shell of its former self. Israel's aerial bombardment and ground invasion last year severely degraded the group's military capabilities and decimated its senior leadership.

Bullet holes deface a mural depicting the toppled Syrian {resident Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Damascus.
Bullet holes deface a mural depicting the toppled Syrian {resident Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Damascus.

Meanwhile, Israel's war in the Gaza Strip against U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas -- another ally of Tehran -- has left Iran with little clout in the Palestinian enclave.

Domestically, things are not looking any better. The national currency has lost over 60 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar in the past year, while the authorities shelved a controversial law to increase enforcement of the hijab, or Islamic head scarf, out of fear of public revolt.

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Iran's clerical establishment is in a "critical situation."

"This may be the most challenging phase in [the Islamic republic's] history since the 1980-88 war with Iraq -- or perhaps even more severe," he argued.

Azizi added that even the establishment's core support base was now "questioning the validity" of the country's domestic and foreign policies.

Making matters worse is that 2025 could be a make-or-break year for Iran's nuclear program, with the practically defunct 2015 nuclear deal set to expire in October and the West growing impatient with the lack of progress on efforts to revive the deal.

French President Emmanuel Macron this week warned that Tehran's nuclear program was approaching "the point of no return" in comments that Iran later called "deceitful."

'Shock Therapy'

Iran is facing the consequences of years of poor investments both domestically and internationally, which have brought it to a critical "juncture," according to Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

"Iran needs shock therapy…. It needs a shaking to its core to be able to maybe rescue this regime," Vatanka said.

Trump's return to the White House could have major consequences for the Islamic republic.
Trump's return to the White House could have major consequences for the Islamic republic.

Analysts say Tehran needs to make major policy changes and tough decisions, such as engaging the Trump administration, to prevent further decline.

During Trump's first term in office from 2017-2021, his administration pursued a campaign of "maximum pressure" on Iran that included imposing crippling sanctions against Tehran.

"There appears to be a growing consensus among political circles in Tehran that, given the complexities on both domestic and external fronts, reaching an agreement is the most pragmatic course of action," said Azizi.

While the "world should welcome" such an agreement, it may not be enough to save the clerical establishment, Vatanka said.

"There is nothing Trump or anybody else can do for the hard problem that the regime in Iran faces, which is that it has lost its own people," he said, referring to growing public discontent in the country in recent years.

Swiss Citizen Dies In Iran After Being Accused Of Spying

(illustration)
(illustration)

A Swiss national who was accused of spying by Tehran was found dead in prison in what officials say was a suicide.

The Mizan news website, which is affiliated with Iran's judiciary, said the Swiss citizen had been "arrested by security agencies for espionage and his case was under investigation" when he took his own life at the prison in the eastern city of Semnan on January 9.

The Swiss foreign minister confirmed in an e-mail to RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Switzerland had been informed of the situation and is seeking further details.

"The FDFA (Swiss Foreign Ministry) confirms the death of a Swiss citizen in Iran. The Swiss Embassy in Tehran is in contact with the local authorities to clarify the circumstances of the death in an Iranian prison," said ministry spokesman Pierre-Alain Eltschinger.

"The FDFA is providing consular protection to the relatives. At this stage, the FDFA cannot provide any further information."

Mizan quoted Mohammad Sadeq Akbari, the chief justice of Semnan Province, as saying the individual was being held in a cell with another prisoner and took his life when the cellmate was not present.

Akbari did not name the Swiss citizen or provide further details, saying an investigation is being conducted and so far "suicide is certain" as the cause of death.

No details of the charges against the Swiss citizen were revealed.

Several European countries and the United States have characterized the Islamic republic's arrest of Western citizens as "hostage diplomacy," claiming Tehran uses such detentions as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West.

Three years earlier a Swiss diplomat died under mysterious circumstances.

Iranian media said the person died from a fall from a high-rise building just outside of Tehran. Swiss authorities did not identify the victim, nor did they give details on the incident.

In December, the Swiss Attorney General's Office said the case of the diplomat's death had been closed and that an investigation had not proven any "criminal interference by a third party."

The investigation reportedly was complicated by the absence of organs in the victim after an initial autopsy was performed in Iran.

Switzerland has represented the United States diplomatically in Iran since Washington and Tehran cut ties in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Italian Podcaster Held By Tehran Released, On Way Home

Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, who has a podcast called Stories that covers life in places around the world, was detained in Iran on December 19.
Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, who has a podcast called Stories that covers life in places around the world, was detained in Iran on December 19.

Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, who was held by Tehran police for almost three weeks for her "journalistic activities," has been released and is headed home.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced in a post on X that Sala, who was detained on December 19, was on a plane to Italy on January 8.

"Thanks to intense work on diplomatic and intelligence channels, our compatriot has been released by the Iranian authorities and is returning to Italy," Meloni said.

The 29-year-old, who has a podcast called Stories that covers life in places around the world, was held for over a week before Iranian authorities confirmed her detention.

No details of the charges were made public, but they came after Sala posted a podcast from Tehran on December 17 about patriarchy in the Iranian capital.

Three days before Sala's detention, Mohammad Abedini, an Iranian-Swiss businessman who is wanted by the United States for his alleged involvement in a deadly drone attack on an American base in Jordan, was arrested in Milan, Italy.

Iran called Abedini's arrest "illegal" and subsequently summoned the Italian ambassador to Tehran over the issue.

The United States called Sala's detention "retaliatory," while media watchdogs Reporters Without Borders and the International Federation of Journalists described her arrest as "arbitrary" and aimed at "extortion."

Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries.

Reza Valizadeh, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen and former journalist for RFE/RL's Radio Farda, was handed a 10-year sentence by Tehran's Revolutionary Court in December on charges of "collaborating with a hostile government."

Valizadeh resigned from Radio Farda in November 2022 after a decade of work. He returned to Iran in early 2024 to visit his family but was arrested on September 22.

His two court sessions, held on November 20 and December 7, reportedly lacked a prosecution representative, with the judge assuming that role.

Sources close to the journalist claim he fell into a "security trap" despite receiving unofficial assurances from Iranian security officials that he would not face legal troubles upon returning to Iran.

Iran is among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of the press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176th out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index.

The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.

Updated

Jump In Iranian Executions In 2024 Prompts UN Outrage

An Iranian soldier prepares a noose for a public hanging (file photo)
An Iranian soldier prepares a noose for a public hanging (file photo)

Iran executed at least 901 people in 2024 -- including 31 women, some of whom were convicted of killing their husbands while fighting off a rape or other cases of domestic violence -- a nine-year high that has sparked outrage at the United Nations.

About 40 of the total executions came in the last week of December alone, the UN high commissioner for human rights said in a report published on January 7.

"The increase in the number of people executed in Iran over the past year is very worrying," High Commissioner Volker Turk said, adding that the total had climbed from 853 in 2023.

“It is high time Iran stemmed this ever-swelling tide of executions,” he added.

The UN said that most of the executions were for drug-related offenses, but it added that dissidents and people connected to protests in 2022 were also executed.

Protests erupted across Iran in 2022, triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who was arrested for allegedly violating the hijab law, while in police custody.

During the protests, women and girls removed and burned their head scarves.

The authorities waged a brutal crackdown on protesters, killing hundreds and arresting thousands.

In the latest report, Turk called on Tehran to halt all future executions.

“It is incompatible with the fundamental right to life and raises the unacceptable risk of executing innocent people. And, to be clear, it can never be imposed for conduct that is protected under international human rights law,” Turk said.

'They Killed One Of Us': How One Woman Joined Iran's Mass Protest Movement
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UN spokeswoman Liz Throssell told reporters in Geneva that the number of women executed in Iran was the highest figure in at least the past 15 years.

"The majority of cases involved charges of murder. A significant number of the women were victims of domestic violence, child marriage, or forced marriage," she said.

Throssell told Reuters that one of the women executed for murder had killed her husband to prevent him from raping her daughter.

The conservative Islamic state has a long history of violating the rights of citizens, especially women and girls.

Masud Pezeshkian, who many labeled as a reformist, won Iran’s presidential election in July, vowing to better protect the rights of women and minorities, but many rights activists and international observers remain skeptical pending substantive actions.

With reporting by Reuters

After Degrading Hamas And Hezbollah, Israel Intensifies Attacks On Yemen's Huthis

The Huthis publicly display their ballistic missiles during a military parade in Sanaa, Yemen, in September 2023.
The Huthis publicly display their ballistic missiles during a military parade in Sanaa, Yemen, in September 2023.

Israel has degraded the fighting capabilities of its chief adversaries over the past year, including Lebanon's Hezbollah and the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

But Yemen's Huthi rebels, who continue to fire missiles and drones at Israel, have proven a resilient foe despite Israeli attacks.

"Deterring the Huthis presents significant challenges," said Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "Israel lacks sufficient intelligence about the group and its operational capabilities."

Israel's success hinges on its ability to locate and destroy the Iranian-backed group's weapons facilities, a task that has "proven difficult so far," Nagi said.

Another challenge is geography. Yemen is located some 2,000 kilometers from Israel. The Huthis also control large swaths of the country, including their stronghold in the mountainous northwest and the Red Sea coastline.

Israeli emergency services work at the scene of a missile strike that, according to Israel's military, was launched from Yemen and landed in Jaffa, Israel, on December 21.
Israeli emergency services work at the scene of a missile strike that, according to Israel's military, was launched from Yemen and landed in Jaffa, Israel, on December 21.

Even so, Israel has intensified its air strikes in recent weeks against the Huthis, despite the armed group posing a limited direct military threat to Israel. The escalating Israeli attacks have threatened to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.

Escalating Attacks

On December 26, Israel said it conducted air strikes on the main airport in Sanaa as well as power stations and "military infrastructure" at several Yemeni ports.

The head of the World Health Organization narrowly escaped death in the Israeli strikes on the airport that killed at least six people.

Israel's allies, including the United States and Britain, have also carried out strikes in Yemen.

The U.S. military said that it carried out air strikes against Huthi targets in Sanaa and along the Yemeni coast on December 30 and 31, including a "command and control facility and advanced conventional weapon production and storage facilities."

The Huthis have fired on U.S. naval forces and attacked international shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting a key global trade route.

The Israeli strikes came amid almost daily missile and drone attacks by the Huthis on Israel. Most of the attacks have been intercepted by Israel's air defenses and have caused little material damage. But they have triggered constant air raid sirens in many parts of Israel and disrupted everyday life.

The Huthis launched their attacks on Israel and international shipping in late 2023. It came soon after Israel began its devastating war in the Gaza Strip. The rebels have vowed to continue their attacks until a cease-fire is reached in the Palestinian enclave.

Protesters, mainly Huthi supporters, shout slogans as they rally to show support for Palestinians and Lebanon's Hezbollah in Sanaa, Yemen, on November 8.
Protesters, mainly Huthi supporters, shout slogans as they rally to show support for Palestinians and Lebanon's Hezbollah in Sanaa, Yemen, on November 8.

Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Israel is largely operating against the Huthis in the dark. Israeli attacks, he said, have mainly targeted "civilian and strategic infrastructure rather than the military assets."

Civilians have borne the brunt of the violence in Yemen, where two-thirds of the population of some 35 million people need humanitarian assistance.

"We, the people, are paying for it, not the Huthis," said Mustapha Noman, a former Yemeni deputy foreign minister. "This helps them."

Iran's Trusted Allies

The Huthis are part of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and militant groups against archfoe Israel.

Israel has severely weakened the axis over the past year. Israel's ground invasion and devastating air campaign in Lebanon decimated the military capabilities of Hezbollah, an armed group and political party in Lebanon.

Israel's ongoing war in the Gaza Strip has devastated the Palestinian territory and diminished the fighting power of Hamas.

Meanwhile, in early December, longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another member of the axis and a key ally of Iran, was ousted from power by Islamist rebels.

That has heightened the importance of the Huthis for Iran. The rebels are armed with highly capable ballistic missiles and are the least affected by the Israeli strikes.

"Without the Huthis, Israel would likely shift its full focus towards targeting and weakening Iran directly," said Nagi.

Arrests Spark Diplomatic Clash Between Iran And Italy

In December 2024, Italian journalist Cecilia Sala (left) was detained in Tehran, and Mohammad Abedini (right), who is wanted by the United States, was detained in Milan.
In December 2024, Italian journalist Cecilia Sala (left) was detained in Tehran, and Mohammad Abedini (right), who is wanted by the United States, was detained in Milan.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has summoned the Italian ambassador over the arrest of Mohammad Abedini, who is wanted by the United States for his alleged involvement in a deadly drone attack on an American base in Jordan.

Abedini was detained at Milan's Malpensa Airport on December 16, 2024, at the request of U.S. authorities who have accused him of defying sanctions and transferring sensitive drone parts to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

The components were used in a drone strike in Jordan in January 2024 that killed three U.S. service members, according to U.S. justice authorities. Iran has denied being involved in the attack.

Iran's diplomatic move on January 3 came a day after the Italian Foreign Ministry summoned Iran's ambassador to Rome to protest the arrest of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, who was detained in Tehran on December 19, 2024.

Italy's Foreign Ministry has said Sala, who has a podcast called Stories that covers life in different places around the world, was in Iran to carry out "journalistic activities."

In a January 3 meeting with the Italian ambassador, Majid Nili Ahmadabadi, director-general for Western Europe in Iran's Foreign Ministry, said Abedini's arrest was "illegal" and called for his immediate release, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.

Ahmadabadi also reportedly said that the United States was attempting to "take Iranian nationals hostage all over the world."

The Iranian authorities have remained silent about Sala's case since her detention in December 2024. After Italian media reported her arrest, Iran's Culture Ministry announced only that she had "violated the laws of the Islamic republic," without providing further details.

The United States has called Iran's detention of Sala, who was arrested three days after Abedini, "retaliatory." Media watchdogs Reporters Without Borders and the International Federation of Journalists have described her arrest as "arbitrary" and aimed at "extortion."

According to the website of the Il Foglio daily, where Sala works, the Milan Court of Appeal will hold a hearing into Abedini's case on January 15.

Several European countries and the United States have characterized the Islamic republic's arrest of Western citizens as "hostage diplomacy," claiming that Iran uses these detentions as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West.

In December 2024, a Tehran court sentenced Reza Valizadeh, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen and former journalist for RFE/RL's Radio Farda, to 10 years in prison for "collaborating with a hostile government."

After working for Radio Farda for 10 years, Valizadeh left the company in November 2022. He visited his family in Iran in early 2024 before being taken into custody on September 22.

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