For Kosovo, the February 9 parliamentary elections are about much more than just choosing a new government; they will shape the country’s diplomatic future, regional stability, and international standing.
And, according to experts in the United States and the EU, the stakes are high -- without alignment with its international allies, Kosovo risks not only diplomatic friction but also potential isolation or even a frozen conflict.
Kosovo's relations with Washington and Brussels are centered around the EU-facilitated dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, which began in 2011 and aims to normalize relations between the two countries.
Kurti Takes A Hard Line
Since Kosovo's 2008 declaration of independence, which Serbia still rejects, there have been ongoing tensions between the two countries.
These tensions primarily revolve around ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo, who reject Pristina's authority and have tried to maintain parallel governance structures with Belgrade's support.
Over the past 2 1/2 years, the government of Prime Minister Albin Kurti -- which is likely to win reelection -- has taken a hard line, replacing Serbian license plates with Kosovar ones, stopping the import of the Serbian currency to Kosovo, and closing Serbian banks and dozens of parallel institutions.
Kurti's moves have been criticized by the previous U.S. administration and the EU, who argued that they were not coordinated with Kosovo's international partners and have made life harder for the country's ethnic Serbs.
Richard Grenell, who served as special envoy for the Serbia and Kosovo talks in U.S. President Donald Trump's first administration, wrote on X that the "Kurti Government was not trustworthy during Trump's first term, nor during Biden's term." According to Grenell, both "Republicans and Democrats have criticized Kurti consistently for taking unilateral actions that destabilize the region."
Kurti, however, has stuck to his guns, even when warned by the United States or when, in June 2023, the EU suspended financial aid to the country worth up to 100 million euros ($104 million).
The moves against Kosovo's ethnic Serb community, Kurti has said, were necessary steps aimed at extending the rule of law in the north of the country, where most of Kosovo's ethnic Serbs live, and in line with the country's constitution. Moreover, on February 2, he said that no Kosovar government has had better relations with the United States than his own.
Kosovo’s elections will also shape its relationship with the EU, which is closely tied to its diplomatic stance toward Serbia.
Kosovo’s EU application, which was submitted in December 2022, has been stalled ever since, as it needs a consensus of support among the 27 members of the EU. The biggest hurdle is the five EU countries -- Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain -- that do not recognize Kosovo's independence.
Toby Vogel, a Western Balkans analyst at the Berlin-based Democratization Policy Council, told RFE/RL that Kosovo's next government will need to work more diligently to improve relations with the EU.
There is also the question of Kosovo's membership in international organizations, such as Interpol or the Council of Europe. While the EU has promised backing for Pristina to join these bodies, Serbian efforts to counteract have always succeeded.
Will Kurti Change?
Kurti's ruling Self-Determination Movement (LVV) is currently the favorite to win the elections, although most polls are predicting the party won't reach the 50 percent needed to form a government on its own.
And, so far, Kurti has shown little sign that he is ready to change his policy toward Serbia and the West.
The Kosovar government has continued to take a hard line by continuing to close institutions in the country tied to Serbia. And Kurti has signaled that, if he wins a new mandate as prime minister, he will continue to strengthen his image as an uncompromising leader who prioritizes principle over diplomacy.
"The Republic of Kosovo, with our government in charge, will never say yes to the 'Association,'" Kurti said at a rally with supporters in South Mitrovica on February 1.
The association Kurti was referring is the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities in Kosovo, which was part of an agreement Kosovo reached with Serbia in 2013 but has never been implemented.
A huge sticking point between Serbia and Kosovo, the association is intended to coordinate Serb-majority municipalities in areas such as education, health care, and economic development.
If Kurti wins and sticks to his guns, it could mean Kosovo is more isolated than ever.
This, Vogel suggested, could mean occasional violence or a frozen conflict, "like the one that's developed in Cyprus...over the years." "That would be a real problem for Kosovo," he said, "because that would make it impossible for the country to move on."
Opposition Win Could Bring Significant Change
There is also the possibility that Kurti would lose. If the LVV receives less than 50 percent but still receives the most votes, Kurti could try to form a coalition government. If he isn't successful, then the second-placed party would have a mandate to form a government.
An opposition coalition could drastically redefine Kosovo's relations with the West -- and potentially reset peace talks with Serbia. Kurti's opponents for the prime minister's post have advocated repairing and deepening relations with the United States, which they argue, are essential for Kosovo’s future.
Charles Kupchan, from the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, said that whoever forms the next government in Kosovo must ensure that relations with Washington remain strong and intact. Kosovo, he said, cannot afford to be at odds with its allies.
"I would say, if you want a good relationship with the United States, make deals, get into the bazaar, be ready to negotiate," Kupchan said.
"And I think that actions that are seen as causing difficulty will not go over well in Washington. Actions that are seen [as] advancing the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia will be greeted warmly in Washington."
