Officials in Brussels woke up with a sense of relief this morning as the pro-EU incumbent, Maia Sandu, was reelected as Moldovan president. In a tight November 3 presidential runoff, she got 55 percent of the vote. Her Russia-friendly challenger, Alexandr Stoianoglo, received 45 percent.
It has otherwise been a difficult autumn for the European bloc. Populist EU-skeptic parties finished top in Austrian parliamentary elections and did extremely well in three eastern German state elections.
Then, last week, there was Georgia, an EU candidate country since December 2023, where the increasingly authoritarian Georgian Dream party comfortably finished first in parliamentary elections marred by irregularities. It's an issue on which Brussels isn't quite sure how to react.
All these results have given the EU some real existential angst. Has its pulling power waned? What is it doing wrong? And perhaps more importantly: Are they being outplayed by Russia in their shared neighborhood?
Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, with the hope that proper accession negotiations would start in 2025. The EU has been unusually active in Moldova of late. Since 2022, Brussels has given Moldova 2.2 billion euros ($2.4 billion); just before the elections, another 1.8 billion euros was committed.
Pro-Russian oligarchs such as Ilan Shor and Vlad Plahotniuc, who have hugely disrupted Moldovan politics, have been sanctioned by the bloc. Over a dozen EU leaders and ministers visited Chisinau over the summer to show their support for Sandu.
For Brussels, that's quite a show of commitment and a reflection of how concerned Brussels is about Moldova, a country that is broadly divided into pro-EU and pro-Russian camps. The close result in the first round of the presidential election two weeks ago and also the narrow victory for the "yes" camp in the EU referendum held at the same time set off alarm bells in Brussels. Now, the EU's attention will turn to Moldova's parliamentary elections coming up in the summer of 2025.
But does the EU have the attention span and staying power to remain committed to Moldova? Under a Sandu second term, Moldova will most likely move closer to membership, but it will be a long, hard slog and a challenge for the government to demonstrate to its citizens the tangible benefits of joining the EU.
Just ask countries in the Western Balkans, such as North Macedonia and Serbia, who have been candidate countries for years but still not made it out of the waiting room.
Moreover, the EU has a lot on its plate right now: a new incoming U.S. administration, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and continued bloodshed in the Middle East.
Most likely, more EU money will continue to trickle down to Chisinau, but can Brussels really compete with Russia, especially with allegations that the Kremlin is buying votes? As one EU official said, speaking on background as they weren't authorized to speak on the record: "We, as Europeans, try to buy Moldovan hearts with words, but Russians buy Moldovan minds with money."
The EU's inability to effectively promote the advantages of closer ties with Brussels is partly to blame for this. Some observers of the process believe this is due to EU officials rarely venturing beyond Chisinau. Others point to the need for EU countries to have a greater presence in the country, with more diplomats and officials, and to help bolster regional and local governments around Moldova, which are both understaffed and underfunded.
There is also a need for the Moldovan government to deliver on things that matter to ordinary citizens, notably justice reforms, which, in a recent assessment , the EU said needed to be improved.
Sandu, who used to work for the World Bank, is undoubtedly popular and respected in Brussels -- and that greatly aids Moldova's reputation abroad. But that may not be enough, especially as she is already seen as a "diaspora president" due to her large support from Moldovan expats.
Given the EU's waning power and limited attention span, and the threat posed by Russian interference, it is on the domestic front that the next battle will likely be fought.
