Two former senior US military commanders have said Europe's aerial shield is not prepared to meet the scale of the threat from Russia, while the head of the US Navy's air and missile defense task force has told RFE/RL that intercepting incoming fire is "always a cat-and-mouse chase."
The comments come as European countries begin a massive rearmament program, agreed last month, with air defenses top of the shopping list.
"You see what has happened in big cities in Ukraine. This also would happen in some of the big cities of Europe," Philip Breedlove, former NATO supreme commander in Europe, told RFE/RL.
"If you're sitting out there thinking you're under some magic bubble like in the TV programs, that's not a good place to be," he added.
Russia's daily bombardment of Ukraine has graphically illustrated the importance of air defense.
According to an analysis in February by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, Russia has launched a daily average of 24.3 missiles and drones at Ukraine since the beginning of their full-scale invasion in 2022. This is more than 25,000 in total.
The results have been power shutdowns, wrecked infrastructure, and mass civilian casualties. Russia has used a variety of missiles, from drones to modified Soviet-era glide bombs to cruise missiles. Likewise, there are varied forms of defense.
Commodore Mike Dwan, commander of US Navy Task Force 64, told RFE/RL that NATO's "overlapping fields of fire" provided a full range of cover.
Dwan is based with the Sixth Fleet in Naples, Italy, but was speaking from the US antiballistic missile facility in Redzikowo on Poland's Baltic coast. His command brings together this base, a similar one in Deveselu, Romania, and a flotilla of US destroyers operating out of Spain.
They use a system called Aegis to target ballistic missiles.
"We do so in the upper atmosphere, above 100 kilometers. All of those intercepts...are happening in space," Dwan said.
The system was successfully used twice last year against Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles targeting Israel. "We put into place the capability, the kill chain, that very much is like what we have here for a threat coming into NATO."
The system relies on a network of sensors, but this, says Breedlove, is also its weakness.
"There was this false feeling for a while that, OK, we got Deveselu, we got Poland, we got these two beautifully provided American capabilities, but, you know, these movies where you see these command centers and every missile fired is engaged -- it's fiction," he said.
Probability Of Kill
In a subject area rich with jargon, Breedlove referred to POK -- Probability Of Kill. This would range from 95 percent in areas with high sensor density to just 30 percent in other areas. Europe needs to "thicken the network," Breedlove said.
He would not be drawn on where.
"The nations absolutely know where they are. We've brought them into the missile simulation centers and shown them how this works."
At Redzikowo, there are three launchers each with eight missiles. Could its capacity be overwhelmed?
"It could very well" be overwhelmed, Dwan said.
"Here in Poland, we have our pre-planned responses for prioritized coverage, so does Romania and our destroyer systems at sea…. There's always a cat-and-mouse chase of how many are being fired and how many are we able to shoot down."
But Dwan stressed the importance of deterrence. If Aegis is unable to intercept a missile, it would be for another layer, such as a Patriot battery, to deal with.
"Layered defenses" would mean "any potential adversary really has to think not just twice, but maybe three or four times," before attacking.
Russia's Drone Threat
Breedlove said another key NATO vulnerability is defense against drones, an area in which Russia now has more experience.
"We have this pernicious amount of drone capability attacking [Ukraine] and the air defenses of America, much less Europe, are not prepared for this kind of warfare, the sheer numbers," he said.
"The enemy is now on steroids."
Ben Hodges, formerly head of the US Army in Europe, had a similar assessment when he spoke to RFE/RL last month.
"You know, we've never, ever had enough air defense to cover everything…. You prioritize what must be protected," he said. "There is no such thing as a total shield."
Hodges said NATO military planners would take the "typical day" data of Russian attacks in Ukraine "and apply it against the ports of Bremerhaven or Gdansk or Klaipeda in Lithuania, for example, and figure out, do we have enough air and missile defense? I'm not sure we do."
Germany spearheaded the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) in 2022, after the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Bringing together 24 European countries, it aims to enable joint procurement of air and missile defense systems and encourage interoperability.
But some countries, such as France, Spain, and Italy, have not joined. France has criticized it for including non-European systems (such as Patriots) and components.
Air Power
Hodges said that NATO fighter jets offset some of Europe's weaknesses.
"Our air forces are a critical part of this. I think probably the growing amount of air power that we have, particularly with Finland and Sweden…will give us capabilities that Ukrainians currently don't have to counter Russian air and missile attacks."
Hodges added that air power was also a key US contribution to air defense. But Europe's efforts to boost its defenses come amid uncertainty over the ongoing US commitment to its security. So how would Europe fare without a US role?
"The biggest gap would be US Air Force, early warning, intelligence…and then the US contribution at NATO's air command at Ramstein."
Dwan's command is also clearly a key capability.
The ESSI envisages the use of Arrow-3 systems that can also intercept ballistic missiles. But this will take time, and these are also not produced in Europe, having been developed by Israel and the United States.
