With the approval of a new coalition government, Bulgaria's parliament has ended a prolonged stretch of political instability, during which the country was largely governed by caretaker cabinets and underwent seven elections in four years.
Despite finishing first in the October 2024 elections, the country's dominant political force, the center-right GERB party, did not have a majority to govern alone.
But after long and involved negotiations, it has finally managed to scrape together a coalition with the former communist and pro-Russian Bulgarian Socialist Party; the populist There is Such a People party; and a faction of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, which has traditionally represented Bulgaria's ethnic Turks.
Guiding the new coalition will be Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov, a senior GERB official with extensive government experience, having previously served as both a minister and parliamentary speaker.
The coalition has already drawn criticism from opposition leaders and political analysts who have questioned its commitment to fighting corruption and maintaining the country's pro-Western stance.
Borisov's Return
For many Bulgarians, the GERB party, led by Boyko Borisov, is synonymous with corruption. A linchpin of Bulgarian politics, Borisov served as prime minister three times between 2009 and 2021 and was widely criticized for presiding over a system defined by widespread graft, a captured media, and alleged misuse of EU funds. Borisov eventually stepped down in 2021, shaken by months of massive anti-corruption protests. Despite winning elections since, his GERB party struggled to find willing coalition partners.
Of particular concern is GERB's relationship with Delyan Peevski, a powerful and influential tycoon who has been accused of corruption and influence peddling and sanctioned by the United States and the United Kingdom.
Instead of distancing itself from Peevski, as many Bulgarian politicians had urged, the coalition eliminated wording from earlier drafts of the political agreement that would have curbed his influence. This decision prompted the reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria alliance to withdraw from negotiations and stay out of the coalition.
Despite Prime Minister Zhelyazkov's ambitious agenda, which includes enacting EU-mandated reforms, pursuing eurozone membership, and bolstering the rule of law, many Bulgarians are not convinced.
That's partly due to the coalition's inherent contradictions -- particularly its attempt to bridge pro-Western and pro-Russian interests. The pockmarks of compromise and political expediency are already showing.
The phrase "pro-European" has been stripped from the coalition's opening statement, and commitments regarding Ukraine and Russia have been watered down to accommodate the historically pro-Russian Bulgarian Socialist Party's reluctance to support aid to Kyiv. It's worth remembering that the There is Such a People party started life as an anti-GERB and anti-corruption movement.
With the last four years defined by political paralysis and reforms never getting off the ground, money from the European Union has almost dried up. Restoring this crucial financial pipeline might not be easy given that it requires implementing EU-mandated reforms and anti-corruption measures -- overhauls that the increasingly euroskeptic coalition member There Is Such A People has previously blocked.
Will Bulgarian Continue Its Pro-European Path?
Nevertheless, under the new government, Bulgaria is unlikely to shift its orientation away from the EU and the West. The country is a newly minted member of the Schengen visa-free zone and has pledged to avoid cooperation with "anti-European parties." Speaking on January 16, Zhelyazkov said he would ensure continuity in the country's geopolitics, mentioning the eurozone as a priority.
There are also some checks and balances. Addressing parliament on January 16, Nadejda Iordanova from We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria, said that the opposition parliamentary group would be watching to see if the government stuck to a pro-European path.
"We will support the path to the euro, energy independence, and the modernization of the army," Iordanova said. "[We] will be the opposition, we will be consistent, we will work for the modernization and strengthening of institutions."
The last four years have been characterized by political inertia and stagnant reform -- something that won't necessarily change now that Bulgaria has agreed on a government.
What many Bulgarians fear now is not just that things will stay the same but that things will get worse, a return to what they see as a particularly unscrupulous and corrupt decade under the rule of Borisov and GERB.
