MORNING NEWS ROUNDUP FOR OCTOBER 2, 2014
Good morning. Here are a few items from RFE/RL's News Desk:
MERKEL URGES PUTIN TO PRESS SEPARATISTS IN UKRAINE
German Chancellor Angela Merkel says Russia has a duty to exert influence on pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Merkel made the remark during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 1.
According to a German government spokesman, the two leaders expressed concerned that violence was still being used in Ukraine every day.
Merkel said the border between Ukraine and Russia needed to be monitored and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation had a big role to play in that.
She said Germany would continue to support the OSCE mission in Ukraine, adding it could play an important role in planned local elections in the regions around Donetsk and Luhansk.
Earlier, NATO's new Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the cease-fire in Ukraine offers an opportunity but Russia still has the power to destabilize the country.
(Based on reporting by TASS and Reuters)
MOSCOW LINKS SUSPENSION OF STUDENT EXCHANGES TO GAY U.S. COUPLE
Russia's child-protection ombudsman has linked Moscow's decision to suspend participation in the Future Leaders Exchange Program (FLEX) to a gay American couple that established guardianship over a Russian high school student who was in the United States for the program.
Pavel Astakhov said on Twitter (https://twitter.com/RFdeti) on October 1 that Washington had violated its obligation to return Russian students to their country when "a Russian teen stayed behind in the United States."
Astakohov said a homosexual couple established illegal "guardianship" over the boy.
But the U.S. administrator of the program says the events described by Astakhov occurred after the child had completed the exchange program and that the student's host family was not a same-sex couple as Russian officials have implied.
U.S. Ambassador John Tefft expressed regret over Russia's decision to withdraw from next year's FLEX program.
(With reporting by TASS and Interfax)
NATO'S NEW CHIEF SAYS RUSSIA STILL ABLE TO DESTABILIZE UKRAINE
NATO's new Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that the cease-fire in Ukraine "offers an opportunity" but says Russia still has the power to destabilize the country.
Stoltenberg, speaking on October 1 in Brussels at his first news conference as NATO leader, said Russia must comply with international law and demonstrate it is respecting its international obligations.
He said: "We see violations of the cease-fire" in Ukraine.
But the new NATO chief said he saw no contradiction between aspiring for a constructive relationship with Russia and being in favor of a strong NATO.
Stoltenberg, a former two-term Norwegian Prime Minister, is NATO's 13th secretary-general in the trans-Atlantic organization's 65-year existence.
He replaced Danish former Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
(With additional reporting by Reuters and AP)
LAVROV SEES CHANCE TO RESUME TALKS WITH NORTH KOREA
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after meeting in Moscow with North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Su Yong on October 1 that he sees a possibility for six-party talks to resume on Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
But Lavrov said the resumption of the talks "will take a certain amount of time – not immediately."
He said the main conditions are "to achieve from all sides a calm, balanced approach" and to avoid "any abrupt steps that would only polarize positions."
North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and the United States began talks in 2003 with the aim of ridding the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons.
But Pyongyang withdrew in 2009 and indicated it would not abide by a 2005 pledge to abandon its nuclear programs.
Ri, who is on a 10-day visit to Russia, said a "long tradition of relations" between Moscow and Pyongyang is "bonded with blood."
(Based on reporting by TASS and Interfax)
And this, via Reuters:
RUSSIA GAS DUEL DEEPENS WITH SLOVAKIA SUPPLY CUT
By Michael Kahn and Jan Lopatka
PRAGUE, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The cat and mouse game between Europe and Russia on gas intensified on Wednesday with Slovakia saying its supply from Russia was down by a half and its prime minister calling the move part of a political fight.
Since September, Russia's state-controlled Gazprom has sent less-than-requested deliveries to Poland, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary - after the European Union began sending gas to Ukraine - in a clear warning from Moscow ahead of the winter heating season which officially starts today, when the industry switches to higher pricing.
The 50 percent cut reported by Slovakia, a major transit point for Russian gas exports to Europe, was by far the deepest yet, and Prime Minister Robert Fico said he would call a crisis meeting of his government if the problems persisted.
Fico, who normally has warm relations with Russia and has criticised EU sanctions against it, said he saw political factors behind the cuts.
"The Russian side talks about technical problems, about the necessity of filling up storage for the winter season," Fico said. "I have used this expression and I will use it again: gas has become a tool in a political fight."
There was no immediate comment from Russian gas exporter Gazprom
Slovakia's western neighbour the Czech Republic became the latest former Soviet-bloc nation to experience reductions. RWE Czech Republic, its main gas importer, said it saw unspecified reductions on several days over the past week, although the flow seemed normal on Wednesday.
It was unlikely there will be any impact for now on consumers of gas in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, or the countries further West that receive it via there, because gas storage reservoirs throughout Europe are close to full.
As well as shipping Russian gas west, Slovakia also sends it east into Ukraine. That has irked Russia, which switched off gas deliveries to Ukraine to persuade Kiev to pay its arrears.
"Nobody should be surprised by what Russia does. They want to keep pressure on Ukraine... at the start of the heating season," said Michael LaBelle, a gas expert at the Central European University in Budapest.
Central European spot gas markets rose to over 25 euros ($31.52) per megawatt-hours (MWh), their highest levels since the Ukraine crisis broke out in February/March.
Russia is Europe's biggest supplier of natural gas, meeting almost a third of annual demand and in return, Gazprom receives around $80 billion in annual revenues from its European customers, making up the majority of its income.
Moscow halted gas flows to Ukraine three times in the past decade, in 2006, 2009 and since June this year, although this year gas for the EU via Ukraine has so far continued to flow.
Opening up gas flows eastward was part of the EU's response to Gazprom's decision to cut supplies to Kiev in June. Slovakia, Poland and Hungary can also send gas to Ukraine but so far deliveries have not been without incident.
Poland temporarily stopped deliveries to Ukraine last month after Warsaw said it was getting less gas from Russia than requested. Hungary stopped eastward supplies last week in order to fill its own storage tanks ahead of winter.
Slovakia, with the largest EU capacity to Ukraine, had maintained deliveries.
Analysts agree the moves are a warning to Europe that Russia is ready to retaliate should Brussels impose further sanctions on Moscow over its intervention in Ukraine.
"It (the Russian export reductions) could actually be in the end quite harmless. But the fact that they did not tell anyone in advance, (shows) that nobody should trust any explanation he or she gets, and that in itself is damning," Czech energy security ambassador Vaclav Bartuska told Reuters this week.
He added it would be foolish to expect gas to flow as usual through Ukraine this winter.
DEAL?
Traders have, however, pointed out that Russia's recent reductions to Europe, at least before the latest cuts to Slovakia, were within contractual allowances and came during times that EU gas storage tanks are well filled.
Gas Infrastructure Europe data show that the EU's gas storage sites are filled to an average of over 90 percent, compared to just 68 percent this time last year.
"Most of the EU has its gas tanks filled to the rims, so they don't need more gas at the moment, while Gazprom needs to still fill its domestic reserves ahead of the Russian winter, so I'm not surprised by its flow reductions to the EU, which were all within contractual allowances," one EU utility trader said.
While gas deliveries to Germany, Gazprom's biggest customer, should continue through the Nord Stream pipeline which bypasses Ukraine, the outlook is far less certain for central and southeastern European nations which receive most or all of their imports from Russia and via Ukraine.
To deal with a potential shortfall this winter, the European Union has prepared emergency plans and has also sought a compromise to safeguard winter supplies in a potential deal that would guarantee Kiev at least 5 billion cubic metres of Russian gas for the next six months if Ukraine made pre-payments.
The Russian energy ministry said on Wednesday that there would be not further gas talks with Ukraine and the European Commission this week. (1 US dollar = 0.7933 euro) (Additional reporting by Vera Eckert in Berlin; Writing by Henning Gloystein and Christian Lowe; Editing by William Hardy)
WHY COMPROMISE IN UKRAINE MIGHT BE IMPOSSIBLE
The always insightful -- and often provocative -- Alexander Motyl has a piece up at Huffington Post suggesting the Western and Russian positions on Ukraine are irreconcilable.
"Should the West therefore try to understand Russian perceptions even if it knows that they are completely wrong? Obviously, understanding Russian delusions can help the West and Ukraine craft a better response to Putin's expansionism. But it makes little sense to say that the West and Ukraine should try to accommodate these delusions in their search for peace in eastern Ukraine and the Crimea.
Should the democratic world have accommodated Hitler's perceptions of Jews? Or of Germany's need for Lebensraum? Or of the innate superiority of the Aryan race? The questions are rhetorical, but they are exactly the ones we should be asking about Russian perceptions.
The implications for policy are clear. Finding a compromise under such conditions may be impossible. And agreeing to disagree may be the best one can possibly achieve. Russia currently controls the Crimea and one third of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Let it continue to do so. The West has imposed sanctions on the Russian economy and supports Ukraine. Let it also continue to do so. Finally, Ukraine has adopted a defensive position and appears intent on preventing further Russian incursions into its territory. It, too, should continue to do so.
There is no practical solution to the Russo-Ukrainian war. The most one can hope for is to "freeze" it and thereby transform hot war into cold war between Russia and Ukraine and between Russia and the West. That cold war will continue as long as Putin remains in power and continues to promote his delusional views of the world."
Read the whole piece here.
REUTERS: RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK BRACES FOR OIL PRICE DROP
MOSCOW, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank is working on measures to support the economy should oil prices fall by as much as a third or more, a senior official said on Wednesday, showing growing concern as the rouble slides and Western sanctions take a toll.
The International Monetary Fund also gave a pessimistic assessment of the Russian economy, halving its growth forecast for 2015 to just 0.5 percent.
Interfax news agency quoted First Deputy Governor Ksenia Yudayeva as saying the central bank was working on a "stress scenario" that was likely to envisage an oil price of $60 per barrel.
This would be added to three existing scenarios for the central bank's policy outlook for the next three years, and compares with a $100 assumption in the 2015-17 state budget adopted last week.
"The purpose of this scenario is to prepare a shock scenario to work out an action plan which we would implement to limit negative effects," Interfax quoted Yudayeva as telling a conference.
Read the whole piece here.
Trailer for Andrey Zvyagintsev's film "Leviathan"
From RFE/RL's News Desk:
MOSCOW BLAMES U.S. ON EXCHANGE PROGRAMS, SAYS GAY COUPLE BECAME GUARDIANS
Russia's child-protection ombudsman says a gay American couple established guardianship over a Russian high school student who was in the United States on an exchange program.
Pavel Astakhov said the alleged incident was one reason for Russia's decision to scrap the 21-year-old Future Leaders Exchange Program (FLEX).
Astakhov said on Twitter (https://twitter.com/RFdeti) on October 1 that the U.S. side had violated its obligation to return Russian students to their country when "a Russian teen stayed behind in the United States."
He later told state news agency TASS that "a U.S. homosexual couple" had illegally established "guardianship" over a boy whose mother is in Russia.
On September 30, U.S. Ambassador John Tefft expressed regret over Russia's decision to withdraw from next year's FLEX program.
President Vladimir Putin signed a law banning the adoption of Russian children by American families in 2012, as tension with Washington mounted in his third term.
(Based on reports by TASS and Interfax)
Semyon Guzman, a prominent Ukrainian psychiatrist, says Vladimir Putin hasn't gone crazy -- he's just evil.
"Many really consider that he suffers from definite psychological illnesses,” Guzman wrote in a September 30 article (a big h/t to thei ndispensable Paul Goble for flagging this).
"This is only a convenient explanation in the existing situation. Unfortunately, it is not correct.”
Putin's character traits, "ike those of a murderer, thief or other good for nothing, are not psychiatric phenomena but rather objects of the subjects of moral philosophy.” Guzman wrote. He added that Putin was "absolutely responsible" for his actions.
Karen Dawisha, who appeared on the Power Vertical Podcast back in April, dscusses her new book "Putin's Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia"
From RFE/RL's News Desk:
BARROSO WARNS PUTIN OVER EU-UKRAINE TRADE DEAL
The head of the European Commission says an EU-Ukraine trade deal can only be changed by Brussels and Kyiv – not Moscow.
Jose Manuel Barroso made the remarks in a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin released on October 1.
Ukraine's parliament ratified its agreement with the EU last month.
However, the implementation of the trade part of the deal has been delayed until January 2016 to appease Russia, which says the pact will hurt its markets.
Moscow has called for more three-way negotiations to amend the deal and threatened to curtail Ukraine's access to Russian markets if Kyiv implements it.
In his letter, Barroso warned Putin not to impose new trade measures, saying it would threaten the agreement with Russia to delay the EU-Ukraine pact.
(With reporting by Reuters)
And for anybody interested, here's the full text of Barroso's letter:
"Mr. President,
Following your letter of 17 September, I would like to welcome the constructive engagement from all sides in the trilateral ministerial meeting on the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area on 12 September.
The conclusions reached at that meeting were endorsed by all participants and set out in a joint ministerial statement.
On the EU side, we have informed our Member States of the outcome of the trilateral process, and we have now obtained their approval for the necessary legislative steps.
I should emphasize that the proposal to delay the provisional application of the DCFTA is linked to continuation of the CIS-FTA preferential regime, as agreed in the joint ministerial statement. In this context, we have strong concerns about the recent adoption of a decree by the Russian government proposing new trade barriers between Russia and Ukraine. We consider that the application of this decree would contravene the agreed joint conclusions and the decision to delay the provisional application of the trade related part of the Association Agreement.
The joint ministerial statement also foresees further consultations on how to address concerns raised by Russia. We are ready to continue engaging on how to tackle the perceived negative impacts to the Russian economy resulting from the implementation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area.
I take however this opportunity to underline that the Association Agreement remains a bilateral agreement and that, in line with international law, any adaptations to it can only be made at the request of one of the parties and with the agreement of the other, according to the mechanisms foreseen in the text and the respective internal procedures of the parties.
I wish to recall that the joint conclusions reached at the Ministerial meeting state clearly that all these steps are part and parcel of a comprehensive peace process in Ukraine, respecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine as well as its right to decide on its destiny.
Consequently, while all parties should implement the conclusions as laid down in the joint ministerial statement in good faith, the statement does not and cannot limit in any way the sovereign prerogatives of Ukraine.
The European Commission remains fully committed to contribute to a peaceful solution. In this respect we hope that the recent positive steps embodied in the Minsk Protocol of 5 September and the ensuing memorandum from 19 September will be fully implemented, including the monitoring of the Ukrainian-Russian state border and its verification by the OSCE, and the withdrawal of all foreign armed formations and military equipment from the Ukrainian territory.
We also expect that rapid and decisive progress can be achieved in the trilateral gas talks towards a mutually acceptable interim solution for the upcoming winter period, on the basis of the compromise elements set out by the European Commission. It is key that the resumption of energy deliveries to the citizens of Ukraine is ensured and that the fulfilment of all contractual obligations with customers in the EU is secured.
Yours faithfully,
José Manuel BARROSO"
From RFE/RL's News Desk:
PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA WON'T RESTRICT INTERNET ACCESS
President Vladimir Putin says Russia is not planning to limit access to the Internet or put it under total state control, but will need to ensure the stability and security of its Russian segment.
Putin, speaking at a meeting of his presidential Security Council, said Russian Internet domains have faced a growing number of cyber attacks.
Putin appeared to seek to defuse speculation over possible restrictions amid escalating tensions with the West over the conflict in Ukraine.
He said Russia will consistently and legally close sites disseminating or promoting extremism, xenophobia, terrorism and child pornography.
And just when you though it couldn't get any weirder, Valery Zorkin destroys your illusions.
That's Valery Zorkin, the chairman of Russia's Constitutional Court. Zorkin penned an article last week in "Rossiiskaya gazeta" (that's the official Russian government newspaper, by the way), calling for -- wait for it -- a return to serfdom. A big h/t to Elena Holodny at Business Insider for flagging this.
Here's the money quote:
"Even with all of its shortcomings, serfdom was exactly the main staple holding the inner unity of the nation. It was no accident that the peasants, according to historians, told their former masters after the reforms: 'We were yours, and you — ours.'"
Zorkin also took a shot at Pyotr Stolypin, the 19th century reformist prime minister (and a hero of Vladimir Putin's), and his judicial reforms.
"Stolypin's reform took away communal justice from the peasants in exchange for individual freedom, which almost none of them knew how to live and which was depriving their community guarantees of survival."
I wonder what that portends. Zorking also compared the abolotion of serfdom to the post-Soviet reforms of the 1990s.