EVENING NEWS ROUNDUP, OCTOBER 6
A few items from RFE/RL's News Desk
RUSSIA BANS NIGHTTIME DEMONSTRATIONS
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed an amended law that bans nighttime demonstrations and meetings.
The amended law on meetings, rallies, demonstrations, processions and pickets was posted on Russia's official legal portal on October 6.
The new amendments make it illegal to conduct a public event before 7:00 and specifies that such events must end before 22:00 local time.
There are exceptions for events marking historical dates or cultural events.
The State Duma, the lower house of parliament, passed the bill on September 19 and the Federation Council passed it on October 1.
(Based on reporting by Interfax and UNIAN)
NATO CONCERNED ABOUT UKRAINE CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance is very concerned about numerous cease-fire breaches in Ukraine.
In Warsaw on his first foreign trip, the new NATO chief said it is important for Russia to use its influence to make sure the separatists adhere to the cease-fire.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's Security Council on October 6 also called the cease-fire in Ukraine very fragile, particularly in the area of Donetsk airport.
Stoltenberg called NATO's "task number one" reinforcing the security of its members and "supporting an independent, democratic, and west-oriented Ukraine."
And he vowed to maintain "a continuous presence and activity in the eastern part of our alliance," potentially calling into question its 1997 promise to Russia that it would not permanently station significant combat forces in the east.
(Based on reporting by Reuters and TASS)
MISSING CRIMEAN TATAR MAN FOUND DEAD, SISTER SAYS
A Crimean Tatar man who went missing late last month on the annexed peninsula has been found dead, his sister said.
Edem Asanov's sister, Feride, told RFE/RL on October 6 that Asanov's body was in a morgue in the Crimean city of Yevpatoria and that he would be buried on October 7 in the town of Saky.
Asanov's sister provided no further details.
Asanov, 25, is one of many Crimean Tatars who have been reported missing in Crimea in recent months.
Community members say pressure on Tatars is part of what they call a campaign of harassment and intimidation against the Turkic-speaking Muslim minority group, most of whose members opposed Russia's annexation of the Black Sea peninsula from Ukraine in March.
Crimean authorities have made no official comment about Asanov since he went missing on September 29.
Asanov disappeared the day when hundreds of Crimean Tatars protested in the town of Bilohirsk against the disappearances of two other Tatars, 20-year-old Dzhevdet Islamov and 17-year-old Islam Dzhepparov, who were reportedly forced into a vehicle by unknown individuals in military uniform and taken away on September 27.
The protests prompted Crimea's Moscow-backed acting leader, Sergei Aksyonov, to meet Dzhepparov's father Abdureshit, a well-known activist, on September 29 and promise him to search for his son and the other young Tatar man.
The disappearances began in March when activist Reshat Ametov was pushed into a car while picketing local government building in protest at the takeover of the peninsula by Russian troops.
Two weeks later, his body was found with traces of torture.
On October 1, talking at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) in Strasbourg, the veteran leader of the Crimean Tatar community, Mustafa Dzhemilev, said that at least 18 Tatars had disappeared after the peninsula was annexed by Russia in March.
The Council of Europe’s commissioner for human rights, Nils Muiznieks, said at the PACE session that security for Crimean Tatars "has been shattered by a series of raids by armed, masked security personnel in religious institutions, schools, Tatar-owned businesses, private homes," and the community’s assembly, the Mejlis.
Crimean Tatars are native to the Black Sea peninsula but were deported by Stalin to Central Asia in 1944. They started returning back to Crimea in late 1980s and make now more than 12.5 percent of Crimea's population of 2.5 million.
PUTIN TO SPEND BIRTHDAY IN SIBERIAN SOLITUDE
Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to take his birthday off from work and will spend the day in the Siberian taiga.
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on October 6 that the Russian president "is taking tomorrow (October 7) off from work."
Peskov said Putin would depart later in the day for a place in Siberia that was "some 300 to 400 kilometers from the closest inhabited place."
Peskov did not specify where in Siberia Putin planned to spend his 62nd birthday but Peskov said part of the reason for the choice was a scheduled meetings with officials in Siberia on October 8.
Putin usually works on his birthday and Peskov offered no explanation for Putin's decision to "rest" on this birthday.
(Based on reports by TASS and Interfax)
MORNING NEWS ROUNDUP, OCTOBER 7
Good morning. Here are some items from RFE/RL's News Desk:
POROSHENKO SAYS NO PEACE IN DONBAS WITHOUT CONTROL OVER BORDER
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in a meeting with a top U.S. official on October 6 that there cannot be peace in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region until government control is re-established over the border with Russia.
Poroshenko, during a meeting with visiting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, stressed the need for Ukrainian border guards to be allowed to return to all areas along the Russian border.
"Without restoring Ukrainian control over the border it is impossible to achieve a peaceful settlement," Poroshenko told Nuland.
Poroshenko also warned that areas in eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian separatists faced a humanitarian disaster this winter if nothing can be done to change the current situation.
Gas, electricity, and food supplies must be resumed, Poroshenko said.
Meanwhile, N ATO's new Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance is very concerned about numerous breaches of a month-old cease-fire between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists.
Stoltenberg, speaking in Warsaw on his first foreign trip, said it is important for Russia to use its influence to make sure the separatists adhere to the cease-fire.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's Security Council on October 6 also called the cease-fire in Ukraine very fragile, particularly in the area of Donetsk airport.
Stoltenberg called NATO's "task number one" reinforcing the security of its members and "supporting an independent, democratic, and western-oriented Ukraine."
And he vowed to maintain "a continuous presence and activity in the eastern part of our alliance," potentially calling into question its 1997 promise to Russia that it would not permanently station significant combat forces in the east.
Meanwhile, artillery fire resumed in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk late on October 6, raising more doubts about the ceasefire.
Donetsk, eastern Ukraine's largest city, has been under the separatists' control, with the exception of the Donetsk International Airport, which remains in the hands of the Ukrainian army.
The separatists have been mounting repeated attacks against the airport, but their attempts have been so far unsuccessful.
Pro-Russian authorities in Donetsk said that two civilians were killed and five injured in shelling earlier in the day.
Ukraine's National Security Council spokesman, Andriy Lysenko, said October 6 that one soldier was killed and 13 were injured in fighting in the past 24 hours.
(Based on reporting by UNIAN and Interfax)
MOGHERINI SAYS FAVORS A 'BALANCED APPROACH' TOWARD RUSSIA
Federica Mogherini, the European Union Commissioner-designate for foreign policy has said that the EU needs to handle Russia with a mixture of firmness and tact.
Mogherini, speaking during her three-hour confirmation hearing at the European Parliament, said, "I would say that we need a mix of assertiveness and diplomacy. The balance would also depend on the reaction of the [Russian] bear."
Some eastern European EU states had sharply criticized Mogherini's nomination in August, saying her record as Italian foreign minister and a center-left politician showed she was too soft on Moscow over its role in the Ukraine crisis.
Mogherini said that while relations with Russia are strained at the moment, Russia remains "a strategic country in the world" and the EU needs to consider its ties with Russia "in the next five years."
She added, "it is going to be crucial that we are going to engage with Russia for our own security."
Mogherini also said that the EU needs to pay greater attention to its eastern neighbors.
Mogherini said the EU should offer "full support to Ukraine in terms of security, institutional reform, political process" and economic and energy challenges.
She underlined the importance of "a full implementation" of a cease-fire deal between Ukraine and pro-Russia separatists concluded in Minsk last month.
The Commissioner-designate also said she believed EU sanctions against Russia have been effective from the economic point of view.
She said, "I think that the Russian economy is starting to suffer quite a lot. So if the question is, have the choices we have made so far been effective on the Russian economy? [the answer is] Yes."
Mogherini said the EU needed to support other eastern neighbors such as Moldova and Georgia and work more closely with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus.
RUSSIA CLAIMS TO HAVE FOILED TERRORIST ATTACKS
Russia's National Antiterrorism Committee (NAK) said a security operation in the North Caucasus republic of Daghestan resulted in one militant being killed and large amount of explosive material being seized.
NAK said security forces conducted an operation in the Kyzylyurt district of Daghestan on October 6 and killed Alidibir Asudinov, described as a bomb maker for a local militant group.
A search of a home belonging to the militant group turned up some 170 kilograms of explosive material and a vehicle that was being rigged with enough explosive material to cause a powerful blast.
NAK said the group planned to carry out a series of terrorist attacks in Daghestan.
The operation was conducted one day after a bomber in nearby Chechnya killed five policemen outside a concert hall in the Chechen capital Grozny.
(Based on reporting by TASS and Interfax)
OIL PRICE TRENDS
A PERFECT ECOMOMIC STORM LOOMS FOR KREMLIN
There's been a lot of bad economic news in Russia of late. The ruble is plunging, inflation is rising, and growth has slowed to a trickle. Everything that needs to be up is down and everything that needs to be down is up.
But the one figure that should really be causing sleepless nights in the Kremlin is the price of oil -- which is hovering around $90 a barrel. Sure it's an oversimplification, but it's also generally true that the fortunes of any Russian regime tend to fluctuate with the oil price. When energy prices were high in the 1970s, the Soviet Union was aggressive and expansionist. When they tanked in the 1980s, the regime retrenched -- and stagnated.
Just as a thought experiment, imagine what the 1990s would have been like with $100-a-barrel oil. Would Boris Yeltsin have looked so inept? (Ok, he probably would have looked inept, but not so inept.) And would Vladimir Putin have nearly the same amount of swagger if oil was around $20-a-barrel like it was in the 1990s?
Now we know all this, of course. But nevertheless, a couple tweets by Anders Oslund caught my attention this morning:
The first tweet links to a Reuters piece by Edward Mcallister and Timothy Gardner that is well worth reading. Here's the first few grafs:
(Reuters) - As oil production swells, demand falters and prices slide, the global oil market appears on the verge of a pivotal shift from an era of scarcity to one of abundance.
Oil prices have fallen as much as 20 percent since June, despite a host of rising supply risks, leading more investors and traders to consider whether 2015 is the year in which the U.S. shale oil boom finally tips the world into surplus.
While the plunge has rekindled speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may need to cut output for the first time in six years when it meets next month, some analysts are looking much further ahead.
They say a long-anticipated fundamental shift in the market may now be under way, ending a four-year stretch when $100-plus prices were the norm, and opening a new era in which OPEC restraint once again becomes paramount.
Read the whole piece here.
Even before the Ukraine crisis, even before Western sanctions, even before the ruble crashed, Russia appeared to be headed for leaner economic times. With falling oil prices, the situation could become dire.
CHILDREN SING HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO PUTIN
Get ready for a lot of stuff like this today...
THE LOWER-VOLGA PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC?
If this happened in Ukraine, the Kremlin would probably say it was a freedom fighter. But since it happened in Astrakhan, Russia, it's a criminal case.
From RFE/RL's News Desk:
HACKER DECLARES 'INDEPENDENCE' ON RUSSIAN REGION'S WEBSITE
Police in Russia's southern Astrakhan region are investigating a hacker who broke into of the regional parliament’s website and declared independence from the Russian Federation.
The announcement remained on the website for at least two hours on October 7.
It claimed the Astrakhan region has declared independence from Russia and is now called the Lower-Volga People's Republic.
The post claimed it was from a so-called "Extraordinary Committee" consisting of the regional parliament's chairman, the regional governor, the chief of regional security, and a former leader of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, Igor Strelkov.
The hacker appeared to be calling attention to Russian laws against public calls for separatism at a time when the Kremlin supports what it calls "a right for self-determination" for pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine.
(Based on reporting by TASS and Interfax)
PUTIN DOCUMENTARY (IN FRENCH)
French journalist Nicolas Tonev's documentary on Putin:
REMEMBERING ANNA POLITKOVSKAYA
Eight years ago today, investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya was slain in Moscow. Here's a selection of tweets in her memory. Not enough to do her justice, of course. There are many more at the hashtags #ЦветыАнне & #Politkovskaja
IS HE GOING TO TRY TO BAN UNSANCTIONED TWEETING?
PUTIN, PUTIN, GO AWAY
On The Twitter, Ilya Yashin reminds us of a stunt he pulled two years ago.
The tweet reads: Today is Putin's birthday. We expressed our wish for him two years ago.
The sign (in yellow) behind the Kremlin reads: "Putin Go Away."