As Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump prepare to meet in Alaska for a high-stakes summit to discuss ending the 41-month-old war in Ukraine, a feeling of unease is gripping European capitals, especially Kyiv.
The August 15 meeting between the two leaders could reshape not only Ukraine's future borders but also European security without either Kyiv or Brussels having a say.
Trump has made ending the conflict -- Europe's largest since World War II -- a top foreign policy priority. Confident in his deal-making skills and friendly relationship with Putin, Trump believes that goal can be achieved starting with the one-to-one meeting announced only a week ago.
Since then Western officials and experts have expressed concern that Trump, who eschews traditional diplomatic procedures in favor of deal making, will be outwitted by Putin, who has more than a quarter-century of experience negotiating with Western leaders.
The surprise announcement of the summit sent Ukrainian and European leaders scrambling to get face time with Trump. While European leaders expressed relief following a call with Trump on August 13, what the 79-year-old US leader will agree to in Alaska is anyone's guess, experts said.
"It's really worth noting how remarkable it is that there is such a high degree of uncertainty of what's going to come out of this meeting,” said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
Trump, who has expressed admiration for Putin over the years, tore into Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February during a meeting in the Oval Office that shocked the Western world.
A few months later, Trump focused his ire on Putin for not agreeing to his demand for a 30-day cease-fire. Despite his rhetoric and threats of sanctions, Trump hasn't imposed any penalties on Russia to date.
Zelenskyy on August 14 was in in London to discuss security with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in a show of British support. He and other European leaders want to ensure their interests are taken into account when Trump and Putin meet.
Summit 'Legitimizes Putin'
In Moscow, Putin praised Trump's efforts to end the war in a short video released by the Kremlin, saying the White House is making "quite energetic and sincere efforts to stop the hostilities" and to "reach agreements that are of interest to all parties involved."
But there is plenty of skepticism about Putin's true intentions.
"Already the fact that this meeting is happening is not playing in Ukraine's favor," said Olga Tokariuk, a fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
The opposite is true for Russia "because it legitimizes Putin," Tokariuk said, speaking during a conference call on August 14. "He gets a meeting with the US president on US soil without any concessions on his side."
A Pivotal Moment
There is also skepticism that threatening Putin with tariffs is enough to curb his territorial ambitions. Trump will have to be forceful, said Richard Haas, a former high-ranking State Department official who helped negotiate peace deals on behalf of the United States under previous administrations.
"If you really want to change Putin's calculus, you've got to disabuse Putin of one notion that time is on his side, [and] that by continuing this war Russia will gradually grind and grind and grind and get what it wants," Haas said in an interview with US broadcaster CBS. "All President Trump has to do is say, 'Vlad, ain't gonna happen.'"
The talks come at a pivotal moment, with Trump increasingly frustrated with Putin and the Russian president showing no signs of bending on the Kremlin's maximalist demands. Trump and Putin have held six phone calls, and the White House's lead envoy has traveled to Moscow at least three times.
Trump previously said to end the conflict both sides will have to swap land to end intense fighting that has cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides and displaced millions of Ukrainians.
But French President Emmanuel Macron said Trump was "very clear" in a call on August 13 that he wants to achieve a cease-fire at the summit and that Trump had been clear that "territorial issues relating to Ukraine...will only be negotiated by the Ukrainian president."
"Trump's thinking is apparently closer aligned with that of the Europeans than first feared by some," one European official told RFE/RL after the call.
Trump has warned Russia of "very severe consequences" if it doesn't halt its war against Ukraine but has given no details on what consequences Moscow could face.
